The unspoken assumption of "living with COVID" is that it is in the economic best interests of the nation to allow the self-regulating forces of competition to liquidate the uncompetitive for the sake of net economic gain. Sacrificing lives to the gods reaps monetary rewards
This is a form of Social Darwinism in that it assumes that the self-regulating force shaping society for the better is that of the principle of capitalism as the "survival of the fittest". One devalues the "wealth of nations" by interfering to stop it
The assumption comes along that allowing the weak to perish under natural forces of competition increase the "wealth of nations". Economic intervention to support the economy during lockdowns keeps non-viable entities alive in violation of the law of the survival of the fittest
The conclusion then comes that letting people die in a pandemic is good for the economy. To save the economy, Nature must be allowed to liquidate the weak so that the strong may soldier on. This can only be good for stimulating economic growth
In an economic environment where immigration has ground to a halt, losing further participants in the economy can only be harmful. The modern view is that having more economic participants is of net benefit. Grandma babysitting is economic participation too
The view that allowing people to die en masse is good for the economy is simply abject nonsense for which there is no quality evidence. It is the economic equivalent of taking Ivermectin for COVID. Economics is hardly an evidence-based discipline at the best of times
There is an equally valid economic argument to be made to the effect that stimulating the economy with a basic minimum wage for those in lockdown is more beneficial to the economy long-term than allowing mass death by letting COVID rip
The claim that the increase in budget deficit this creates is harmful to the economy has no evidence base to support it. Australia went into a huge budget deficit in WWII which did no harm to the post-war recover Image
Despite belonging to the same Liberal Party as Scott Morrison, Robert Menzies did not shrink from tolerating a huge budget deficit from the war effort. Morrison finds himself in a similar crisis but cowers from trying to defeat COVID and to save the economy through intervention
Menzies belonged to age predating the bizarre 1980s economic cult of neoliberalism. Menzies would have no have tolerated "living with" being conquered by Germany or Japan to avoid increasing the budget deficit for mindless cultist reasons pursued for its own sake
The only argument that Morrison et al have to support their cultist views is that since they are allowing vast numbers, even thousands, to die, it can only be for the good of the economy, as the vulnerable are left to be liquidated. Menzies will be turning in his grave
Thus if the idea that letting rip with a Biblical scale plague and pestilence upon our land is good for the economy seems like an absurd sophism, that is because it is. We do not object out of a cowardly sentimentality that shrinks from letting thousands die for the greater good Image
And anyone who says that "living with COVID" doesn't mean letting it rip is lying. COVID spreads exponentially. We have two choices: R>1 as it explodes, or extinguish it into retreat with an R<1. If you reject the latter, then you have embraced the former to "let it rip"

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More from @ToshiAkima

31 Aug
Observations of a Tsunami. Last week I optimistically predicted that NSW would track more like Arizona but this week gives me cause to doubt that. We might be headed on a one-way trip to Florida instead
I predicted on the 21st that it would take 2 weeks to reach a daily case number of 1300. I was accused of scaremongering. We reached +1200 in about 8 days instead. This reflects NSW frontline staff's experience with a surge more vehement than anticipated
If we start on Monday 30/8/21 at 1200 cases/day with an exponential doubling time of 8 days then by next Tuesday we could be at 2400/day. In another 8 days, 4800/day. If the peak occurs in October there's plenty of time to squeeze in another exponential doubling to 9600/day
Read 11 tweets
31 Aug
Dear Journalists. Please take note and hold politicians accountable by challenging their falsehoods. This is basic high-school level maths, not rocket science. In this thread, I will explain it in easy-to-grasp terms
This is what "linear growth" looks like. It goes 2-4-6-8-10-12 etc. It takes quite a few steps to get from 2 to 12. That means growth over time often tends to be slower in a linear growth model. The graph looks like this. Linear = straight line Image
With exponential growth, you get serial doublings. So if you start at 2, you go 2-4-8-16-32-64. Exponential growth allows you to get from 2-12 in far fewer steps than with linear growth. The curve looks like this Image
Read 14 tweets
30 Aug
This needs to go viral in Australia. The story line being that it may not be possible to open up like the UK has done because we relied excessively on the Pfizer vaccine instead of AstraZeneca. The AU Pfizer based double-vaccination strategy now in flames
The reason for this might be because even though antibody levels falls with time for both Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines, the better T-cell mediated response from AZ might compensate for this thelancet.com/journals/lance…
The conclusion is that we cannot use the UK as a template for a vaccination strategy in Australia. We are forced to follow the Israeli model and forget whatever BoJo did or said. As the science changes, so the public policy must change with it
Read 4 tweets
20 Aug
Arizona (ppn 7M) gives us a foretaste of where NSW (ppn 8M) will be in about a month but with a lower vaccination rate leading to a higher death rate (assume doubling time of 2 weeks, starting at a baseline of 650 cases/day) #DeltaTsunami
Articles like this that speak only of statistics really only tell part of the story. Even the blunted mortality from vaccination only cushions the blunt impact abc15.com/news/coronavir…
The everyday personal narratives that fill our lives will be more like this. People complain of the pain of lockdown and of its hardships. But when the tsunami of death hits us, the pain will be of a different order of magnitude
Read 8 tweets
14 Aug
Medicine is clashing with the Social Darwinism of the economist's "creative destruction" based on the "survival of the fittest". Competition is good for it lets the strong survive and the weak perish. To intervene against this is a crime against nature
Underlying this is the dogma that the "invisible hand" of the natural processes of the market drive it towards "self-regulating equilibrium" created by Darwinian forces of market competition. Quote from Prof Nouriel Roubini: Crisis Economics ISBN: 9780241956922 ImageImage
Market intervention is thus an unnatural perversion that undermines the invisible hand of the processes driving the market towards self-regulating equilibrium. It undermines the survival of the fittest to destroy the "wealth of nations"
Read 20 tweets
1 Apr 20
"Cytokine Storm". The idiot's buzzword of the week. It makes you sound smarter if you say it often enough. When I first heard of it in 1994 it sounded AMAZING! Then this RCT came out showing it increased mortality. Ouch nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Next came rhAPC (drotrecogin). Don't knock out the immune system: we need it to survive. APC has signalling properties to modulate inflammation. NEJM PROWESS was touted a success! nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Just as we were celebrating and retrospective analyses showed efficacy correlated with drotrecogin reducing Il-6 levels, bad news came in and the dream turned sour nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Read 33 tweets

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