Today's strategy 1. Well today's strategy was framed on Wednesday itself.In last 3 weekly expiry of Aug month, bank nifty struggled at 36200-300 levels. 2. Nifty gave a breakout above 16000 on 3rd Aug and Bank Nifty above 36000 on 4th Aug.
3. Now from 16000, Nifty touched a high of 16701.85 on 18th. Aug but Bank Nifty was not able to close above 36200. 4. This repeated failure of bank nifty to give closing above 36200 showed it is clearly getting weaker every day and as the monthly expiry was starting from today
there will be unwinding pressure from smart money who went long on bank nifty at start of Aug expiry. Clearly time was running out for them.
5.Always remember big institutional desk and FII's give more importance to monthly expiry and if an index or stock is unable to perform as per their expectations during whole month, they will start to unwind quickly.
6. On Wednesday again Bank nifty failed at 36225 and made a bearish belt hold pattern(open point is the highest and closing is at lowest). It failed even when there was good news in HDFC Bank. It broke 20 ema at 35611 and also 35500 Intraday.
These reasons alongwith start of monthly expiry, made me take huge short positions on Bank Nifty on Wednesday itself.
Today's Strategy 1. Bank Nifty opened at 36225 which was high for the day. What gave conviction to sell when bank nifty opens up 300+ pts ? Well there was good news on HDFC Bank as RBI had revoked it's ban on issue of new credit card.
But I knew that Hdfc bank was the only bank which was strongest in bank nifty( apart from ICICI) and it had rallied from 1410 to 1515 in past 20 days.When a stock rallies 20 days prior to news it means the news is in the price already.
Smart people already bought HDFC bank at 1410 expecting this ban revocation. So if it's opens up 2.77%, all good news in the price and there is no further news for buying it. Infact smart people who bought at 1410 will book profits