Getting very very extra worried about inland flooding potential from #Henri.
8-10 inches of rain in the Catskills would be on par with what the region received during Hurricane Irene in 2011 — one of the worst inland floods in US history creating damage of $15.8B.
#Henri's very heavy rainfall will be falling in a region where the ground is already saturated. This summer has been very wet in New England, and another tropical system (Fred) moved through just *yesterday*.
#Henri's rain has nowhere to go but worsen the flood situation.
Water (not wind) is the deadliest part of any tropical cyclone. In the case of #Henri, inland flooding will probably be (much) worse than coastal flooding.
Looks like the NOAA hurricane hunter plane just passed through #Ida's eye again and found it even stronger: 145kt flight level, 131kt SFMR estimated surface winds.
If that holds, #Ida would now have winds equivalent to Laura (2020), Louisiana's strongest-ever hurricane landfall.
This supports an increase in #Ida's sustained winds to 150mph, just 10mph below Category 5.
We'll wait for @NHC_Atlantic to confirm in about 30 minutes.
New dropsonde data from this NOAA hurricane hunter center pass inside #Ida show winds of 161kt about 1000 ft above the surface, and a central pressure of 936mb. That might be enough for an upgrade to Category 5.
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Tropical Storm #Henri struggled to strengthen overnight, which is great news because a weaker storm will be more likely to stay out to sea.
Sure enough, the latest forecast track from @NHC_Atlantic has shifted a bit further offshore of New England:
TS #Henri update:
No major changes this morning from @NHC_Atlantic, other than the fact that the NYC metro area is now outside the cone again — good news.
TS #Henri update, 5pm:
Another nudge back towards land. Of note is that @NHC_Atlantic is now expecting Henri to be near hurricane force for a full 24 hours on its closest approach to Cape Cod and the islands off of Massachusetts. That's a recipe for severe coastal flooding.