I started as a technology sell-side equity analyst at Societe Generale Securities in July 2000

A year later, the NASDAQ was 53% down
2 years later, it was 73% down

Those two years were a great education 😂 Image
I started at the peak of the dotcom "bubble"

I was an electrical engineer who had worked in the tech sector for a few years.

I had my CFA level 1 & thought it seemed quite straightforward ;-)

I remember wondering why were people using Price to Sales multiples...
In September 2000 I visited Boston & New York for the first time.

I was fortunate to be sent to the SG Cowen Tech conference in Boston. My eyes lit up. I shook the hands of many top CEOs of the star companies at the time.

It was magical
On that trip I even visited the World Trade Centre & went up to the public viewing deck. I was there EXACTLY 1 year to the day before 911

@shaunabe will remember my visit to him in NY at the time. Thank you Shaun for being such a great host!
I even visited the floor of the NYSE. But I had no tie. So I had to buy one outside ;-)

I went to the "pit" where Cisco was trading and will never forget that Cisco traded more that day (in value) than our whole local SA stock market in a month!

Talk about eye opening!
The mood was very upbeat at the time. But I couldn't appreciate just how euphoric things were because I hadn't been in markets before that.

The next two years, I learnt a lot.
While today's tech markets (and the run up post COVID) is different :

(the companies are different & it's totally different times),

I do feel there are many similarities. The excitement, the emotions, the dreams

It brings back many memories
Luckily for me I had very little capital invested in the market back then ;-)

(mainly because I had very little capital, lol)

So it was a learning exercise that luckily didn't cost me financially.
Today, it's a different story. I don't have a pension fund so my retirement rides mostly on my portfolio and my investment choices

I am quite nervous about the level of some of the top tech growth stocks
But all I can do is try understand them and their management teams better & try pick the ones I believe in for the long-term

I will probably end up with one or two disasters but my aim is that the portfolio as a whole will do well over the next 15 years
I find studying great co's & their CEOs very stimulating

But I think the main thing is to have FUN and ENJOY THE JOURNEY

Being able to connect with & learn from so many like-minded amazing folk here on FinTwit has been truly remarkable!

Thank you all

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More from @IrnestKaplan

21 Aug
Tobi Lutke CEO of @Shopify on fighting off regression to the mean

Thank you @tobi, keep on doing the hardest thing on earth 😀

Fellow shareholder is very proud of what you and your team have done !

$SHOP 💎
$SHOP R&D/Rev vs $FB, $GOOG, $LSPD (1st chart)

$SHOP right up there. >20% of rev pre-COVID ✅
All down after COVID bec rev shooting up 😂
$LSPD v small

2nd chart shows the big size difference betw these players
➡️ $FB spends about 30x more than $SHOP in R&D
➡️ $GOOG is 40x ImageImage
I can imagine why @tobi says fighting off regression to the mean is the hardest thing on earth 😂

Credit to @Shopify for being in the ring with these giants

I know they’re all different but they are bumping into each other here and there and $SHOP is aiming for the stars 💪
Read 4 tweets
17 Aug
$AMZN

A friend asked me if I thought $AMZN 's rise over past few years was ridiculous

Spent some time looking at the fundamentals and I conclude that no, it ISNT ridiculous.

I think it's reasonable & seems to be tracking ok

Here's why

Short thread...
Lets start with sales and go back 4 years

About 4 yrs ago
Rev $150B, P/S was 3.4x and price ~ $1,000

Today, rev has roughly tripled ($443B) and so has the price (~$3,300)

P/S (red line) is now 3.8
A bit higher than 4yrs ago but not ridiculously higher
Next up - Free Cash Flow

4 y ago:
FCF $7.6B, P/FCF 62x, Price ~ $1,000

If you go to Dec 20 (before they ramped capex spend)

FCF had more than tripled (~$24B) and voila - price also tripled. P/FCF similar at 65x

Today P/FCF looks crazy but thats bec FCF is abnormally low
Read 4 tweets
16 Jun
$TWLO - Twilio chart storm - Aggressive grower

Sizeable co growing fast -> $2B at 60%
CPaaS expanding into cust experience mgmnt

Some say unprofitable & just buying growth

Let’s analyze some of the numbers

A short thread...
FCF components

FCF running slightly negative

EBITDA & SBC mirror images (after SBC its ~EBITDA breakeven)
WCap & capex modest (WCap neg since ‘17)

“Cost” has been that # Shares has doubled in past 4y (acq played a role)

BUT

Rev is ~7X in that period ! Beast
Rev/sh >3X
Operating performance

Strong Rev g 40-80%, now ~60%. (Impressive at $2B rev)
GP mgn has declined slightly to 52% but holding
EBITDA remaining negative

Sendgrid acq in Feb19 & Segment in Nov20 playing a role in the numbers, so too the mix of intnl vs domestic
Read 7 tweets
15 Jun
Had a great chat with $DRIO Dario Health founder & CEO Erez Raphael last week

Started as B2C diabetes monitoring. Expanding portfolio & going B2B2C

I like that the CEO is passionate, knowledgeable & committed. Strong technology & financial background.

Lots of potential IMO
They’re growing nicely, I think their product is good and they starting to make inroads into the employers and providers (B2B)

Technology side from Israel

Good team. Got enough cash onboard it would seem

Early days. Definitely one I’m going to be studying further.
Stiff competition in this space from all angles

But I like these guys. CEO seems hungry for success. Room for several players. They’re so small (rev <10M) that even if they do reasonably well, they should be able to grow a lot.

Not cheap but I think good potential over 3-5yrs
Read 4 tweets
11 Jun
Madness

$SNOW saying FY29 FCF target is $1.5B
Current MCap is $70B implying 8yr out MCap/FCF of 47 times

If FCF growth in FY29 is 30% (assume), then the share could go sideways for 8 yrs 😂

Current leading P/FCFs are 24-44x & FCF g are 11-50% ImageImage
Why on earth would they put out that (very low) FY29 target if the mkt cap is $70B today?

Are they crazy?

Unless they want the share price to go down?

Or I’m missing something ?

I listened to the presentation , he said FCF of 15% *plus*
So could be higher
But still

🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️
Looks like there was a fair amount of selling this morning

Share is down about 4%

Still can’t believe they put out that number

Share prob will drop a lot because investors are probably going to fixate on that

CFO even said this is useful for investors to use to track them
Mad
Read 7 tweets
23 Mar
$RBLX - Roblox Observations & thoughts

Been through the prospectus & IR materials

Bottom line - exciting, not cheap, worth studying further

Popular platform for games & interaction for kids but extending to wider age group & other use cases -> metaverse

A thread...

1/n
2
Disclaimer

I'm not an expert in the gaming industry & the metaverse

These are my general thoughts & observations after looking at $RBLX

I find it very interesting
3

They're a platform - outsource game dev to 3rd party devs

Roblox app is free to dnload. They make money by users buying the Robux digital currency & spending on in-game experiences & items in the avatar mktplace

Devs & creators keep a % of Robux & can convert back to $
Read 36 tweets

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