Thread by @IrnestKaplan

Madness

$SNOW saying FY29 FCF target is $1.5B
Current MCap is $70B implying 8yr out MCap/FCF of 47 times

If FCF growth in FY29 is 30% (assume), then the share could go sideways for 8 yrs 😂

Current leading P/FCFs are 24-44x & FCF g are 11-50%

https://twitter.com/clueless_1337/status/1403161469877841925

Why on earth would they put out that (very low) FY29 target if the mkt cap is $70B today?

Are they crazy?

Unless they want the share price to go down?

Or I’m missing something ?

I listened to the presentation , he said FCF of 15% *plus*
So could be higher
But still

🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

Looks like there was a fair amount of selling this morning

Share is down about 4%

Still can’t believe they put out that number

Share prob will drop a lot because investors are probably going to fixate on that

CFO even said this is useful for investors to use to track them
Mad

Last point, for those who smile & say they’re sandbagging big time

Firstly, they don’t know what their FCF will be in 2029
This is just a target to use to guide investors

If we’re supposed to invest based on them doing MUCH better than this, then that’s not a nice way to invest

Just listened to the Q&A on that investor day video

At about 1:30 there was a q about the 10% EBIT Mgn in 2029.

CFO says they’re conservative on Rev & mgn. So its the “worst case”.

All organic. No big M&A required or adjacent mkts. No transactional data rev in their model.

After listening to the Q&A the CFO had a different tone vs his formal presentation on that slide

So it sounds like the 10B rev could well be a lot higher and the EBiT & FCF Mgn could be higher

I find it a bit careless the way the tone was different in the pres vs the Q&A

I still don’t understand why they’d put out those FY29 numbers at this point

Now the narrative will probably be by how much $SNOW can beat the FY29 guide.

Let’s see maybe next year they’ll make it $15B rev, 15% EBIT & 20% FCF 😂

Maybe this will step up over time 🤷‍♂️