Thread by @ASlavitt

COVID Update: Many Southern states are doing things particularly dangerously.

But just because your Governor isn’t throwing you to the wolves doesn’t mean things can’t be as bad in the rest of the country. 1/

To be clear the governors of Florida, Texas & Arizona, to pick 3, are governing particularly poorly— even for them.

Used to dealing with hurricanes & other natural disasters, governors usually have the sense when to tell people to leave their homes & get to high ground. 2/

Political rhetoric about freedom has served as a trap, allowing only the limpest of responses. It has never been about, nor has it created, a lick of additional freedom to tell people the storm is mild, might not hit them & they’re not permitted to require sandbags. 3/

DeSantis, Abbott & Ducey are faced with a tough situation. A storm has hit, in a rapidly spreading plague, hitting children & adult alike.

In normal scenarios, they would welcome federal resources & support to save lives. 4/

Vaccines, masks & sensible policies to protect kids in schools are the equivalent of the boats, life jackets, sandbags & clean drinking water that keep people out of the hospital.

Full children’s hospitals are the new school shootings. The price of freedom. 5/

The last thing you need in a rapidly swirling storm is a populist, telling people what they think they want to hear.

Most people won’t die the populist thinking goes. So for them, it’s a good bet that in end you can say it was all overblown. Populism isn’t about sacrifice. 6/

Stay in your houses. The storm will probably miss you. And the other people’s kids that end up in the hospitals, the nurses that have to work another shift, the cardiac patient who can’t get seen, that’s for socialists who want to tell you what to do. 7/

Donald Trump told people at his rally they should get vaccinated. Then he got booed.

And populist that he is, he bravely told people that they should also keep their freedom.

Freedom & vaccines are now defined as opposites. Discourse that makes everyone’s job harder. 8/

Abiding by a public health measure to reduce spread, getting a vaccine, following any rule or law…is giving in to the state that wants to control you.

If your highest principle is to be able to share your breath with others in a pandemic, it’s not a principle. It’s a fetish. 9/

So lack of vaccinations, lack of public health messaging, overreach to prevent schools from masking will take the storm & make it worse.

The effects of this are bad enough. Worse, all of it hardens people into a camp it’s more difficult to break without crossing a divide…10/

What do I mean? We have family who have been diametrically opposed to taking a vaccine. When they ultimately changed their minds, they insisted on doing it secretly.

They don’t want their friends & co-workers (nurses) to know. It is too hard to break camp. 11/

But just because things are worse in the south now doesn’t mean things can’t get as bad in the rest of the country.

There are lots of unvaxxed people in every state. Winter will bring them indoors the way summer has in the south. 12/

I’ve seen some narratives challenging how come DeSantis’s COVID track record WASN’T worse than others with more lax policies.

And the truth is not very satisfying for either side of the argument. It’s well beyond his control. It’s the roll of the dice. 13/

Yes— Australia, India, Africa, Indonesia— seemingly lucky in 2020– turned out unlucky by having no immunity when a worse variant struck in 2021.

Southern California had it mild for most of 2020. But Alpha showed up just before the vaccines did. 14/

When a wave hits & with what variants are more powerful forces than can be overcome by all but the most thorough vaccination & masking effort.

You can certainly improve your odds. 95% of MDs are vaccinated. Luck will fall in their favor. But short of that means lots of Delta.15/

The people in the south should have our brotherhood & sisterhood & our support. And they do. Funding, support for schools, eviction protection & all that can be done to work around the state officials that won’t help & won’t get out of the way.

But their fate can be others. 16/

For their fate is one that, as long as Delta rages harder than vaccinations occur, is a threat everywhere.

And we’re reminded that from here things are as unpredictable as ever when it comes to spread in the winter. 17/

How much? Some factors seem likely. On the one hand, as southern states peak & recede, others are likely to rise. Open schools & more time indoors will make things worse. OTOH higher vax levels & new boosters are likely to help.

But a humbling reminder is in order. 18/

What happens from here has more to do with biology than physics. In other words, the virus mutations (let alone how we react) won’t follow a simple pattern.

Delta could be peak contagiousness. Or a midpoint on the way to something like measles.There’s no lab that can predict.19/

So the rest of country could see Delta or something that outcompetes it. Before or after more vaccinations. Natural immunity could be holding or waning.

Good Governor or bad, these factors are beyond their control. And the results carry only some connection to their policies.20/

The 1 certainty is that politicians find ways to claim credit after the crisis is abated, a particular skill when they refuse to acknowledge it was a crisis in the first place.

But forgive him this. “I did nothing & you’re still alive” is all DeSantis can really say. 21/

Even if they can’t stop the pandemic from hitting, real leaders in a crisis do common things: tell the truth, keep as many out of harm’s way as possible & prioritize those who can’t protect themselves easily.

And they have little tolerance for those who won’t cooperate.22/

If people under 12, those with illnesses, the elderly & front line workers don’t trump slogans of freedom & cheap populism, then it really will be a perfect storm. As perfect storms are worse when the ship is rudderless. /end