This chart is interesting.
What it says is that Delta is spreading within households (that’s what Secondary Attack Rate means) at the same level as peak flu season.
Note the increase over last September.
It implies at least 3 things we should try to understand better. 1/
First, kids are getting COVID at school and infecting family members.
Policies preventing schools from protecting kids are failing the entire family including seriously at risk adults. 2/
Second, household infections are going to grow over the Fall and early Winter without more layered interventions. 3/
Third, mass vaccinations as Biden initiated can slow down & help reserve this trend but they must still be accompanied by other measures— frequent testing, masking, and ventilation. 4/
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COVID Update: There is an amazing array of efforts, some not very visible, to tackle COVID.
If you want to know how COVID plays out, the variables are here. But there’s the fatal flaw: us. 1/
I can try to classify many of the efforts to address COVID as now (high impact progress we are working on now), med term (things underway but not immediate), and long term (potential big game changers). 2/
The now items are critical to saving lives today & reducing the odds of future variants.
Number one on that list is to vaccinate the majority of the globe by the first quarter. 3/
COVID Update: Watching the reactions & meltdowns to the proposal that Americans are required to get vaccinated (or tested) to be around others.
There is so little actually controversial here but the sideshow is first rate. 1/
Real people by large majorities support vaccine requirements. We’ve had them for decades, even centuries with little controversy.
No governor has threatened to light himself on fire & blow himself up (until now). 2/
Like traffic lights, as inconvenient as they sometimes are, people are pretty ok with rules if they do things like keep kids safe, reduce deaths, and allow businesses to be open safely. 3/
COVID Update: After recent FDA approval, society is moving towards, requiring vaccines at a rapid pace.
And that’s about to get another jolt. 1/
Over 5.5 billion vaccines have been administered around the world. Think about this from a safety standpoint. Rare things happen when they occur a few times per MILLION. So we’ve seen it all.
At this point the safety record would have to be called impeccable. 2/
Over 5.5 billion shots, given to people of all ages & health, you would expect everything to occur. Yet there are only very modest & rare adverse events.
Even anti-vax strategies seem to acknowledge this reality. 3/
COVID Update: How big a problem will future variants be?
I got an update from several top scientists. 1/
Quick review. Viruses continually mutate but can only mutate when they replicate. And so far we’re giving SARS-CoV-2 plenty of opportunities to replicate. 2/
Most mutations aren’t worth noting. They don’t increase hospitalizations. They don’t increase infectiousness. And they don’t cause problems for prior immunity. 3/
COVID Update: Over the long term the US could be among the countries with the highest cases, greatest risks of outbreaks, and largest home to new variants.
With people refusing vaccinations here, the globe is lapping the US very quickly.
1/
We’ve now given out 5.4 billion shots across the globe.
45 countries, almost all of whom began well after the US, have now fully vaccinated more of their population than the US. 2/
Our low vaccination rates relative to the globe has put the US up there with 3-4 mostly unvaxxed nations as a leading hot spot.
And because of our lower vaccination rate, unlike other early vaccinated countries like Israel & the UK, US death rates are 2-3x higher. 3/