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kumar saurabh Profile picture
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23 Aug, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Now take its peer. Did almost the same stuff. cashflows 4x but could maintain margins, show some growth. Screwed on 5 year basis but decent return on 10 year basis at 19% CAGR.
The whole difference was created by valuation. 2010 one did not pay high but 2015 with all great things one paid high and paid the price
Valuations matter in most of the cases. HDFCs are rare. You will get 10 HDFC out of 2000 stocks and that too in hindsight

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kumar saurabh Profile picture
23 Aug
A business which has multiplied its cash flows 4.5x in last 10 years has generated 1% CAGR in last 10 years.

Think multiple times while paying high n have exit plan ready when things do not work out.

Guess the stock. All data taken from screener
10 Years back the business had very good growth, high margins.
But then looks like competition sensed opportunity, barrier to entry may not have been that great. So, slowly margins fell down
Read 6 tweets
kumar saurabh Profile picture
13 Apr
Time for a small thread 🧵on 10 common secrets of good fundamental analyst and technical analyst (personal view, no ranking)-

1. Makes it a Habit 📡

Fundamental Analyst: To read annual reports and conference call transcripts daily

Technical Analyst: To study few charts daily
2. Knows what to Ignore🙈

Fundamental Analyst: Creates his own process/system to ignore most of stuff and knows which companies to focus

Technical Analyst: Creates his own process/system to ignore most of stuff and knows which charts to focus
3. Knows when to ignore⏰

Fundamental Analyst: Knows when not to invest and can sit on cash looking an idiot

Technical Analyst: Knows when not to trade to save from continuous small stop losses or big loss
Read 11 tweets
kumar saurabh Profile picture
16 Jan
Is market overvalued?

Market ka kya lagta hai?

What is NIFTY PE?

Well, current PE of NIFTY is 40 but there is more..

A thread covering these questions. 1st thing, uploaded a youtube video on the same. Can watch it n subscribe to channel if like 🙂

The 40 PE of NIFTY is considering TTM earnings (in the table) which includes quarters affected by Covid and we all know that there were temporary business shutdowns due to Covid. So, is not this an outlier situation. So, how to handle it
One way to handle it is- Ignore Covid quarters and go back to previous quarters assuming same performance during Covid quarters. Now the 40 PE reduces to 32.4. Almost a 20% reduction
Read 14 tweets
kumar saurabh Profile picture
16 Jan
#NAM Technically, break out is out in the market. Fundamentally, if 1 compares with peers on P&L items, there are possibilities of expense levers to fix. IF new mgmt fixes those, would lead to margin improvement. Topline will also bring more margins. Disc: #technofunda position
This will give some idea what m talking about. Question is can mgmt do
1. Employee cost 2.5x compares to leader. Size of leader is also more than double but thing is - is there an operating leverage possibility? Yes. Check leader employee cost% when it was at current size of NAM
2. Huge cap in operating margin. Can they bridge with size and operations optimization?
Read 8 tweets
kumar saurabh Profile picture
26 Nov 20
A thread on the story of financial gurus on Twitter

Please forward, like n retweet so that others do not get fooled

@larissafernand
I know you found some fake account with Twnkle fooling people but this looks a much bigger mess here. So, let me put it.

It all started
when I got tagged on various learn from so called financial guru tweets. This is going to be a long thread n many accounts are going to get naked as an when I find them. The story of follow these gurus bullshit.

First common patterns:
1. Most of these accounts who suggest to
follow x, y, z guru have been created post march 2020 (let's call them chela)

2. These accounts have never liked even a single tweet of some of gurus highlighted

3. There are some Gurus who took birth in 2020 on Twitter n now everyone is recommending them

4. Some so
Read 19 tweets
kumar saurabh Profile picture
4 Nov 20
@OldSchoolFinanc A small thread on working capital economics of pharma and drug companies taken out from my dashboard.
Assumptions:
1. Data does not include any company with <10 cr annual PAT or <200 cr market cap company for a given year Image
2. Investment options are chosen for start of every financial year
3. 52 pharma companies could qualify from 2003 to 2015 for calculating 3Y CAGR
Insights:
1. Considering I have already removed any loss making company year (even if sun pharma makes losses not included), means
I am somehow trying to retain profitable options , that itself is 1st filter
2. >39% of companies (in profitable basket) have WC/Sales > 40% and >56% companies have WC/Sales > 30%
3. Companies with highest WC/Sales ratio (>40% basket) have given worst 3 year CAGR of 18%
Read 8 tweets

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