Thread by @OttoKolbl

My latest: When did SARS-CoV-2 start to circulate among humans and where? Western media, experts and even WHO say: In Wuhan, probably in December or November 2019, in October at the earliest. However, peer-reviewed research tells another story. 1/13
researchgate.net/publication/35…

First positive PCR test in sewage: 27 Nov. 2019 in Florianópolis, Brazil, followed by three months (!) of virtual constant RNA concentration. This virus spread slowly and went unnoticed. It took time to reach 0.1% prevalence necessary for PCR detection. 2/
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33714813/

First four positive microneutralization antibody tests: October 2019 in Italy, indicating more than 0.6% prevalence among the population. Unlike ELISA antibody test, microneutralization tests have got low sensitivity, but very good selectivity. 3/13
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/03…

Similar evolution in France, where samples were tested from November 2019 on (why so late?), with a decreasing trend of positive tests with microneutralization thereafter, indicating peak of a first wave in November or earlier. 4/13
link.springer.com/article/10.100…

Antibody tests, even microneutr., might not necessarily indicate SARS-CoV-2. We need PCR tests, if possible with sequencing. In north of Paris, after combing through 124 ICU patient records, 14 selected for PCR tests, 1 positive SARS-CoV-2. So easy! 5/13
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

Latest (preprint with Lancet): in measles ref. lab, SARS-CoV-2 in Italy on 12 Sept. 2019, PCR positive with partial sequence. Five more in October 2019 with two out of three characteristic PANGO clade B.1 mutations, the third mutation on 15 Dec. 2019. 6/13
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

In Italy, neither clades A nor B were circulating. B.1 from positive tests in Italy did probably not mutate from B in Italy, but was imported. From where? Not from Wuhan. B.1 never circulated in Wuhan or elsewhere in China. 7/13

Remember US claim "intelligence source" says three staff members of WIV in Wuhan in November 2019 had a cold (source did not say "hospitalized" but "went to see doc. in hosp."), supposedly proves that SARS-CoV-2 originated there. Nov. 2019! When it was in Sept. in Milan! 8/13

Questions remain, but we have one certitude: Researchers from northern Italy and other places have developed and tested with success various research methods to investigate early circulation of SARS-CoV-2. Western media, academic experts and WHO refuse to act accordingly. 9/13

The WHO report from the Joint mission to China (half of the authors from China, half from other countries) systematically downplays the available research on early circulation and does not call for the necessary research to be done. 10/13
who.int/publications/i…

Why is early circulation of SARS-CoV-2 systematically downplayed by experts, media and WHO? The virus circulated in Italy at least since September 2019, probably clade B.1. Other clades much earlier. Why was it not detected? Inconvenient question. Easier to blame China. 11/13

Finding out what went wrong with SARS-CoV-2 is crucial so that we can do better next time. This will not be the last pandemic. Systematic early warning systems, built on past experience, can help us to be better prepared next time. 12/13

We need a systematic investigation into early circulation of SARS-CoV-2 all over the world. The methods exist, but stored samples are destroyed after a few years; we are running out of time. This is probably what some influential actors want. 13/13