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Allen Au ๐Ÿงข Profile picture
@AllenAu11
Aug 24, 2021 โ€ข 13 tweets โ€ข 7 min read โ€ข Read on X
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๐—–๐—ง๐—  #๐—•๐—ง๐—– ๐—ข๐—ป-๐—–๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐— ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ ๐——๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฏ๐—ผ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฑ: ๐—ช๐—ธ ๐Ÿฏ๐Ÿฏ '๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿญ

Price Action Indicators

TLDR: ๐Ÿ“ˆ
1. Miner metrics- Bullish
2. Supply metrics- Slightly bullish
3. Institution demand- Slightly bearish
4. Network metric- Slightly bullish
5. Trading- Buy
๐Ÿญ. ๐— ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐— ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐˜€
a. The mean hash rate for #BTC miners has bottomed & is trending higher. It's forming an ascending channel, which is a bullish pattern.

It's bounced back from the bottom to the middle section of the channel as BTC's price hovers ~$50K. Bullish.
1b (i) The Hash Ribbon is a market indicator that assumes that #BTC's price tends to reach a bottom when miners capitulate & that's when BTC's price momentum switches from negative to positive- a good buying opportunity.
1b (ii) The Hash Ribbon flashed buy signals twice during this bull phase & #BTC's price rallied by 1.5x-2.6x. Hash Ribbon has flashed buy signal again. If history repeats, this will put BTC between $61K-$106K!
1c. #BTC miner balance is increasing, indicating miners are accumulating BTC.

Weekly change: +1864 BTC
Monthly change: +2329 BTC

Bullish!
๐Ÿฎ. ๐—ฆ๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—น๐˜† ๐— ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐˜€
a. The Net #BTC Transfer Volume to/from Exchanges (NTVE) is inversely correlated with BTC price.

NTVE is <0, which is positive for BTC's price.

The chart I tweeted on 7/30/21 still holds. BTC could still peak at $360K based on this metric.
2b. The Balance of #BTC on Exchanges increased by 14614 BTC last week. This shows that some hodlers were taking profit as BTC's price increased to $50K & that slightly affected the price momentum of BTC.
2c. Last week, Whales sold 10829 #BTC, but this was more than offset by the purchases of Great Whites. Tiger Sharks, Fish & Minnows as a whole continued to accumulate BTC.

Overall, stacking sats was the main action last week with profit taking by Whales.
๐Ÿฏ. ๐—œ๐—ป๐˜€๐˜๐—ถ๐˜๐˜‚๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—น ๐——๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ
In the last 7 days, 16315 BTC or $765M worth of #BTC were withdrawn from Coinbase to cold storage. This is a 46% drop from last week's amount.

Institutions were cautious to buy BTC as BTC's price rose near $50K.
๐Ÿฐ. ๐—ก๐—ฒ๐˜๐˜„๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ธ ๐— ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐˜€
#BTC RVT Ratio is the realized market cap of BTC to transaction volume ratio.

RVT Ratio is now in Moderate Activity & trending toward High Activity. If this trend continues, BTC should rally like it did a few months ago.
๐Ÿฑ. ๐—ง๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด
a. aSOPR is in a bullish trend, meaning that as it reaches > 1, profitable coins realize profits & #BTC's price corrects. It then resets back to 1 signaling the dip is bought. aSOPR trades higher repeating the rally higher.

BTC is in a bullish trend!
5b. MRGO-14 uses the difference in changes in #BTC's market & realized price to find buy/sell signals for BTC.

Green โžก๏ธ Buy
Red โžก๏ธ Sell

MRGO-14 has been green since 7/25/21. Could this be a repeat of the 12/16/20-1/18/21 rally, which lasted 34 days? If so, 5 more days to go!
5c. Buy & Sell Oscillator

Simple
Oscillator crosses above 1โžก๏ธBuy
Oscillator crosses below 1 โžก๏ธSell
Oscillator >2 โžก๏ธInterim or cycle top

Advanced
Oscillator > 1 & ๐Ÿ“ˆโžก๏ธAccumulate
Oscillator > 1 & ๐Ÿ“‰โžก๏ธTake profit
Oscillator < 1 &๐Ÿ“‰โžก๏ธShort
Oscillator < 1 & ๐Ÿ“ˆClose shorts

Buy!

โ€ข โ€ข โ€ข

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More from @AllenAu11

Allen Au ๐Ÿงข Profile picture
Jan 18, 2022
When will #BTC's correction be over? How low could its price get?

1. Bull market isn't over as fundamentals are strong
2. BTC is in another mid-cycle correction
3. If $40K-$41K support is breached, BTC could fall to $29K-$37K by end of Jan. 2022, but would quickly rebound >$40K Image
1. #BTC's fundamentals as reflected by key on-chain data are strong. Hash rate has reached a new ATH. LT HODLers continue to hold onto their BTC despite BTC's recent correction. Supply dynamics favor a continuation of the bull run rather than BTC diving into a bear phase.
2. BTC's price continues to track its move from Jan. 21- Jul. 21. (areas marked in pink boxes), but could be 5 days shorter in duration.

The current correction is similar to that of last summer & thus could be over at the end of Jan. 2022.
Read 8 tweets
Allen Au ๐Ÿงข Profile picture
Jan 15, 2022
#Bitcoin Cycle Peak Dash Board

TLDR:
1. The Dash Board is revamped with the update of the BLX & Top Cap models & the intro. of LGC model

2. 4 models to better gauge peak timing

3. Projected Cycle Peak

Timing: 2nd-3rd Qtr. 2022
Price: $100K-$200K
Hopium Price: $320K Image
1a/ The #BTC Cycle Peak Dash Board is revamped with the update of the Top Cap & BLX Models.



1b/ The #BTC LGC (Logarithmic Growth Curves) model is introduced to gauge cycle peak timing & cycle peak price taking into account the growth pattern of BTC.

Read 12 tweets
Allen Au ๐Ÿงข Profile picture
Jan 12, 2022
#BTC is finally rebounding, but how high could its price get?

TLDR:
If impulse move plays out:
High: $74K
Middle: $62-$64K
Low: $46K-$51K
Timing: Mid-Jan. to End of Mar. 2022

If move fails, BTC could test $32K-$37K
Timing: Mid-Jan to Mid-Feb. 2022
1a/ Parallel channel breakout

If #BTC breaks out from its downward sloping parallel channel, it could have a price increase of $17.2K from the point of breakout. If there is a confirmed break of the upper channel (~$44.5K), the target price is ~$62K.

Strong resistance at $46K.
1b/ If #BTC fails to break out of the channel, it'd retest the $40K-$41K resistance again before resuming up. Breaching that, it'd fall between $32K & $37K.

As the bull phase is still intact, it shouldn't fall below (Wave 2= $29.2K*).

* Not Elliott Wave count
Read 6 tweets
Allen Au ๐Ÿงข Profile picture
Jan 10, 2022
The following #BTC peak model with time-based Fib is inspired by @TechDev_52 who combines BTC log growth curves with Fib levels on a 2-week BTC chart.

TLDR:
BTC Cycle Peak
Price:
- High: $180K
- Middle: $120K
- Low: $96K
Time: 2nd Qtr. '22

2.618 Fib: $370K (1st Qtr. '24)? Image
1a/This model (LGC) is constructed on Tradingview with #BTC log growth curves developed by @quantadelic with log Fib levels & time-based Fib zones added on a 2-week BTC chart. This is similar to TechDevโ€™s chart, but the cycle peak log Fib level is at 2.618 & not 2.272.
2a/ To derive the timing of the cycle peak, time-based Fib zones are drawn from mid-cycle correction to the peak of the impulse move after that correction at or above the 1.618 log Fib level.

In past cycles, the peak occurred right between time-based 1.618 Fib & 2 Fib zones.
Read 8 tweets
Allen Au ๐Ÿงข Profile picture
Jan 6, 2022
Some people are calling a giant head & should pattern for #BTC with a target price of $10K-$18K. Possible, but highly unlikely! Why?

TLDR:
1. US10Y: Bullish
2. BTC Futures: Bullish
3. BTC Options Bullish
4. Technicals: BTC could grind down to $40K-$41K & then rebound to $64K
1a/ #BTC's price has been highly correlated with US10Y & they had moved in lock-steps since 11/8/21 until last week. Traders risked off ahead of the Fed minutes & sold stocks & BTC.
1b/ The Fed will probably quicken the pace of tapering & raise rates sooner, but will likely allow their treasuries holdings to mature (no quantitative tightening or shrinking of B/S).

As long as the US economy is growing, a modest rate hike won't crash the markets.
Read 10 tweets
Allen Au ๐Ÿงข Profile picture
Jan 5, 2022
UPDATE: BLX Cycle Peak Model

#BTC again closed below the arc of the BLX model on 12/31/21 so that invalidated 1/9/22 & $350K peak predictions.

Started afresh, fixed model & found 2 numbers: 608 & 2191.

TLDR:
1. Cycle Peak Price
- $325K (Best case)
- $95K-$155K (Base case)
๐Ÿ‘‡
TLDR (Cont...)

2. Projected Peak Timing: Early 2nd Qtr. 2022
3. Model points to lengthening of cycle
4. Projected next cycle peak in late 3rd Qtr. 2026 when hyperbitcoinization may occur
1/ The fact that #BTC prices closed below the arc of the original BLX model in 2 consecutive months means that something is wrong either in the model or bull phase is over.

I don't think the cycle peak is in so I started anew. I used parallel channels to reconstruct the model.
Read 17 tweets

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