NEW: 2 brand new studies give a fresh look at vaccine performance vs Delta.

The bottom line is run don’t walk to get vaccinated if you’re eligible. There’s a 29x reduction in hospitalizations— even against Delta.

And a couple more things.1/ cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html
The vaccine effectiveness against Delta slipped from 90% protection against any infection to 66% with Delta.

This also corresponded with a longer time since vaccination which seemed to be a small part of the impact.2/
Combing results from both studies showed that at 66% effectiveness, it corresponded to a 5x likely reduction in cases from the vaccine. Reason alone to take it.

But the 5x was minor compared to the 29x reduction in hospitalizations with Delta. 3/
The vast majority of cases that occurred among both vaccinated & unvaccinated people were symptomatic. People got sick. Not fun.

Even a 2/3 effectiveness & low hospitalizations means plenty of vaccinated people are getting sick. Not a good surprise if you’ve been vaxxed. 4/
This is one of the two reasons why masks are recommended indoors while Delta blows through. Avoid getting sick.

The other of course is to avoid spreading it. 5/
This corresponds with our current understanding of the vaccines & Delta.

Delta brings on a ton of virus (1000 fold) & comes at you fast with short incubation periods. When the vaccines kick in fast, they can prevent even symptoms. 6/
The vaccines act fastest with high levels of antibodies in the system— why a boost has been recommended & are likely to curtail many of the cases.

Even when the vaccines don’t act fast the memory B cells & T cells respond & beat back the virus. Likely why hosps are rare. 7/
The memory b & t cell responses have been prompted by the vaccines (at least the mRNA vaccines— others work differently). There is a belief that a booster is likely to help with antibodies, b and T cells. 8/
Vaccines are 66% vs Delta infections, 97% against Delta hospitalization, even better against getting ventilated.

Science still beats viral evolution soundly. But without more rapid vaccination, the virus still triumphs.

Triumphs through replication. 9/
And if you cut down replication, you can cut down on mutation.

These studies show again that we mask to avoid sickness & transmissibility. But only if we vaccinate (the globe) do we save lives & drive out Delta. /end

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More from @ASlavitt

15 Sep
COVID Update: There is an amazing array of efforts, some not very visible, to tackle COVID.

If you want to know how COVID plays out, the variables are here. But there’s the fatal flaw: us. 1/
I can try to classify many of the efforts to address COVID as now (high impact progress we are working on now), med term (things underway but not immediate), and long term (potential big game changers). 2/
The now items are critical to saving lives today & reducing the odds of future variants.

Number one on that list is to vaccinate the majority of the globe by the first quarter. 3/
Read 25 tweets
14 Sep
COVID Update: With requirements rolling across the country, I called a company that implemented vaccine requirements last month.

Here is the experience & lessons for the rest of us. 1/
Background first. The company is based in the Midwest with 6000 people.

The workforce has salaried, factory workers and service center workers.

Their starting point was 70% of the staff vaccinated.

The CEO announced that by 10/1 everyone needed to be vaccinated. 2/
The first reaction was a 10% reduction in their employee satisfaction surveys— the first reduction in the history of the company.

Some people were quite upset. So the CEO began to try to understand people’s reasons for being unvaccinated & their objections. 3/
Read 24 tweets
12 Sep
This chart is interesting.
What it says is that Delta is spreading within households (that’s what Secondary Attack Rate means) at the same level as peak flu season.
Note the increase over last September.

It implies at least 3 things we should try to understand better. 1/
First, kids are getting COVID at school and infecting family members.

Policies preventing schools from protecting kids are failing the entire family including seriously at risk adults. 2/
Second, household infections are going to grow over the Fall and early Winter without more layered interventions. 3/
Read 4 tweets
12 Sep
COVID Update: Watching the reactions & meltdowns to the proposal that Americans are required to get vaccinated (or tested) to be around others.

There is so little actually controversial here but the sideshow is first rate. 1/
Real people by large majorities support vaccine requirements. We’ve had them for decades, even centuries with little controversy.

No governor has threatened to light himself on fire & blow himself up (until now). 2/
Like traffic lights, as inconvenient as they sometimes are, people are pretty ok with rules if they do things like keep kids safe, reduce deaths, and allow businesses to be open safely. 3/
Read 20 tweets
9 Sep
COVID Update: After recent FDA approval, society is moving towards, requiring vaccines at a rapid pace.

And that’s about to get another jolt. 1/
Over 5.5 billion vaccines have been administered around the world. Think about this from a safety standpoint. Rare things happen when they occur a few times per MILLION. So we’ve seen it all.

At this point the safety record would have to be called impeccable. 2/
Over 5.5 billion shots, given to people of all ages & health, you would expect everything to occur. Yet there are only very modest & rare adverse events.

Even anti-vax strategies seem to acknowledge this reality. 3/
Read 20 tweets
7 Sep
COVID Update: How big a problem will future variants be?

I got an update from several top scientists. 1/
Quick review. Viruses continually mutate but can only mutate when they replicate. And so far we’re giving SARS-CoV-2 plenty of opportunities to replicate. 2/
Most mutations aren’t worth noting. They don’t increase hospitalizations. They don’t increase infectiousness. And they don’t cause problems for prior immunity. 3/
Read 26 tweets

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