As the Taliban cements its grasp on power, it would be wise for American policymakers to learn what their red lines are and what they're prepared to compromise on. If you ask for everything, you'll get nothing.
The Taliban does want some things from the West. Mainly recognition and foreign aid. I'm sure they'd be willing to make some moderate concessions for each. But they're not going to give in their central vision for the country nor accept anything that jeopardizes their rule.
People keep treating the Taliban as a unified, centralized movement when we know it's anything but. The Taliban leadership's main constituency are its fighters. It's pointless even asking for things that would seriously anger those fighters. Like caving in to Western demands.
Allowing the US to stay in Kabul past Aug. 31, for example, would make the Taliban leadership lose face. No amount of (non-credible) threats will change that. To get its way on this issue, the US would have to make a major concession and do so publicly. Understand your adversary.
A diplomatic strategy that relies primarily on threats is far more likely to lead to renewed conflict than one that relies on negotiations. The Taliban isn't the most reliable of negotiating partners, but we manage to have passable relations with some that are even less reliable.
Can anyone proposing policies that would clearly provoke the Taliban please be required to explain how they will put to an end the inevitable cycle of escalation? Let me guess: sending in 100k troops to overthrow the Taliban and nation-build for 20 years? yahoo.com/news/taliban-a…
Here's a thought: we can simply refuse to sell the Taliban the parts that would keep US equipment from falling apart, sanction any country that buys that equipment from the Taliban, and then refuse to sell that country the parts that would keep the equipment from falling apart.

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More from @grudkev

17 May
This is what a formal military alliance with Russia buys you.
Russia's alliance system presents countries with interesting trade-offs. Joining entails giving up most of your foreign policy autonomy & making extensive economic concessions. In exchange, you get offers of mediation when a rival tries to invade what you think is your territory.
It's also good to remember that Russia invaded Georgia when both were part of CIS, despite that organization having some elements of a military alliance. Russia also invaded Ukraine despite being one of the parties (Budapest Memorandum) assuring Ukraine's territorial integrity.
Read 8 tweets
15 Nov 20
Biden will win the popular vote by 4-5%. If he did 0.75% worse, this would be the electoral map. A similar vote tally in House and Senate elections gives the Dems a bare majority of House seats and 48-50 Senate ones. The GOP can control every branch of gov't on 48.5% of the vote.
With GOP legislatures in control of the redistricting process in most states, it's conceivable that an identical 4-5% popular defeat in 2024 will hand the House to the Republican Party. The same is likely true for the Senate.
The results are even more lopsided at the state level. A 4-5% national majority failed to flip a single State House or Senate to the Democrats (instead they lost both in NH and likely lost one in Alaska). Democrats now control 18.5 state legislatures. ballotpedia.org/Partisan_compo…
Read 6 tweets
17 Feb 20
Time for a thread on the USSR, since some on the left seem to have a soft spot for the communist regime. Here's why any sane progressive would have opposed the Soviet Union. I'll even exclude Stalin's quarter-century-long reign.
While the USSR did initially expand rights of women, it was far from progressive by the end of its existence. Women were banned from hundreds of occupations, including the best-paying ones. Yes, wages were not equal. Male-dominated fields paid far more. rferl.org/a/russia-women…
Only 3 women ever served as a full member of the Soviet Politburo (its highest policy-making body). The final Politburo (1990-1991) had 1 female full member (Galina Semenova) out of 20+. She was the first female full member since 1960. ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9F%D0…
Read 15 tweets
10 Dec 19
After watching Russian news for the past few days, I can say without any exaggeration that a regular viewer is far better positioned to understand the world around them than someone who watches Fox News. While Russian news has a clear pro-Putin bias, most stories are informative.
You could catch the one news item intended to make the West look bad. And there's always a story that makes Putin look good. But beyond those, most of the news items wouldn't be out of place on a 2nd-tier American news network. The only fantasy is about Russia's global standing.
What you don't see on Russian TV is the framing of each story as being a part of an overarching narrative glorifying Putin. Most news is just news. The propaganda (for the most part) is an ad hoc addition. Compare that to Fox News, where a majority of news items relate to Trump.
Read 8 tweets
19 Mar 19
Kazakh president Nazarbayev has resigned! Unexpected to say the least.
To put this resignation in perspective, this is only the third time in Central Asian post-Soviet history that a leader stepped down without a metaphorical gun to his head (both of the other instances were in Kyrgyzstan).
Nazarbayev was the 8th longest serving de facto ruler in the world. Central Asia does still have Rahmon, who comes in at #12 (with Nazarbayev gone).
Read 8 tweets
4 Nov 18
It's become fashionable in certain circles to call NATO expansion a mistake responsible for current enmity between Russia and the US. The main mistake these analysts make is to ignore the counterfactual: what would central and eastern Europe look like without NATO expansion?
1. Given the revival of nationalism in central and eastern Europe (CEE), numerous incompatibilities between nations and states, a long and bloody history of conflict, and no security guarantees from the West, war would be an almost foregone conclusion.
2. Without pressure from NATO to create professional militaries under the firm control of civilian officials, coups would be a constant concern, especially in countries on the losing end of the aforementioned wars. Democratization would be all but impossible in this environment.
Read 6 tweets

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