This is what happens when an elite consensus starts to fall apart. It's clear that the initial narrative on Afghanistan is both false & disbelieved by the broad audience on whom the DC media world ultimately depends
So you get stuff like this, written in a faux "street" style...
2/ Notice that Rogin does not say that Biden's people actually said any of the things in quotes. Because, of course, they didn't.
Notice that the existence of Donald Trump is still, STILL, unable to penetrate the eternal sunshine of the elite media account...
3/ Note above all the assertion as fact, of three bad things the Biden administration has done, none of which are, actually, facts on the ground.
All this to deflect from two uncomfortable true things...
4/ First: there is no real alternative that anyone has come up with to alter current circumstances except a continuation of the war, wh. a) doesn't seem more likely to work in its 21st year than in the previous 2 decades, & b) the American people pretty decisively do not want...
5/ Second: the actual facts available to reporters suggest that after a rocky start, evacuation of both US nationals & Afghans at risk because of prior work w. US forces has gone smoothly.
Instead of leading with that, @joshrogin went all "be like" on Biden.
Why?...
6/ Because, I think, acknowledging the rush to judgment of a week ago would require several different uncomfortable threads of self-analysis, which the current consensus of elite DC media and at least some of their (captured-by?) sources cannot stomach...
7/ The risk, of course, is that trust in institutions, once lost, is very hard to rebuild–see, e.g., the impact of sustained GOP propaganda and policy attacks on the ability of government to govern....
8/ By the same token, there is a whole ecosystem of print, radio and TV that shapes elite media concepts of acceptable journalism...but if that ecosystem suffers the media analogue to drought: distrust, disdain, and ultimately disinterest.
In sum...
9/ Sticking to an Afghanistan narrative that few buy, and doubling down by attacking an administration many/most see doing OK in a difficult circumstance might reduce the embarrassment of this particular journalism fiasco.
It might also deepen it, as more & more tune out...
10/ Anecdata: my 21 y.o. son, passionately interested in politics, is deeply informed–almost entirely through podcasts & related vehicles. He regards the kinds of elite media I've written for (and consumed) over 5 decades, captives of those on whom they report...
11/ His friends, year 3 and 4 at an R1 public uni, are in a similar place. Anecdata, certainly, but a) I wish I could w. more confidence say they're wrong. (They are, in part, but not close to wholly so.) And b) no one in the DC charmed circle should feel good such reax. /fin
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Gen. Milley closed by telling the press that "this is personal to all of you."
That's...
Not good.
Yes, of course, reporters are people and care about the subjects of their stories.
But most important: DoD-beat reporters shouldn't become, even in part, DoD PIOs...1/
2/ They have & do, of course, which is part of the reason why we've seen 20 years of mostly unexamined failure in Afghanistan: that's a journalistic failure.
Milley and/or Secretary Austin said that the time for after-action/lessons learned studies wasn't now, but would come...
3/ I expect DoD will do those studies.
I'm much less confident (as in not at all) that the defense/national security press corps will do an analogous, urgently needed self-examination. The long-running Afghan failure was reportable. There are 11 IG reports to start with...
I'm pretty sure that this is a take with a lot of problems. It's author, a fashion journalist, doesn't engage with the technical issues of modeling or calculating environmental impact, launching the story from one 3 y.o. study. She doesn't examine plastics carefully...1/
2/ Minor errors make me wonder about the bigger stuff. The exchange rate for $ to £ in 2007 is misstated, for example (2:1, rather than what Google tells me was ~1.4:1). Doesn't make the piece as a whole wrong, but it makes me wonder.
The larger issue...
3/ This is at bottom an environmental science story. You need to have an editor who gets that, to make sure a writer without the background of a environmental reporter gets the basic argument right. Better still, a reporter and an editor both versed in the beat, of course, but...
Noah Smith blocked me, alas, (after a not very nasty–IMHO–twitter exchange) so I can't engage with him directly but that doesn't stop me from saying that this is an interesting and useful essay. 2 quick reactions:
The first concerns this quote, which I think is exactly right:
2/ My only add to Smith's thought is that is exactly the position of elite DC media, exposed by their Afghanistan fail (and much else besides). They reject the criticism of outsiders (including really excellent journalists outside the DC nexus, and they have 1 great advantage...
3/ In that they buy ink by the barrel, enabling them to tell the world (&, importantly, each other) how immaculate is their work. But even so, there is, ISTM, a growing perception that "outsiders" are getting basic stories much more right than the nabobs of contemporary media...
2/ The short version: he argues that woke tech/creative elites have monopolized cultural power and both lock out and disdain white working class America, leading to violent right-wing revolutionary impulses that faux-populist scum like Trump exploit.
What's missing from that?...
3/ The sustained attack since Nixon (at least) on education, science etc., ramped up in recent years by the post-truth stylings of Murdoch's empire and much else besides. Resentment against current elites isn't some natural response to overweening incumbents...
2/ Conor often deploys that presumption of risibility in his dislikes, BTW, rhetorical red meat but bad argument. The larger issue though is his both siderism which assumes the weaponized anti-CRT crowd & the racism-is-pervasive side are equivalent in either argument or power..
3/ I'm trying to learn to leap into every fight I'm invited to (or not), but the two sides are not mirror images. Among other things, there is a wide range of different types of evidence that racism still plays a huge role in US daily life...
One last thought before I go: I can't tell you how the pandemic started. No one can. There is no dispositive evidence, and there is unlikely to be any for many years, if ever, given how long it has taken to track down previous new zoonotic diseases. 1/
2/ As Professor Tufekci put it, perhaps sharply, in an earlier reply tweet to me, it's a mistake to have too much certainty about probabilities. But it's important to be clear on what that necessary intellectual modesty actually requires...
3/ It means that we all need to do a lot of work. There are a series of specific steps required for a lab-escape scenario to actually occur. @beyerstein does a great job of detailing them here: newrepublic.com/article/162689….