The hosting platforms (marketplaces, game engines and virtual world sandboxes) become massive centralization vectors in the NFTivere
🧵
People want to buy .jpgs in order to social status signal.
They will naturally congregate on platforms that protect their status.
If the non-true owners of an avatar can similarly wear it on-platform, why buy an avatar at all (and what’s the fun in wearing it)?

/2
Fortnite et al will seek to attract these whales, and so will disallow the use of non-owned assets.
The dominant platforms will enact this curation function which, at first blush, seems trivial (just verify ownership) but proves massively nuanced

/3
(Consider, for the moment, that I could easily duplicate an owned .jpg and then mint that duplicate. I officially own a thing that is a copy of a thing; how does the platform establish who the rightful first creator is and whether my new minting is sufficiently derivative?)

/4
There will be strong consolidation vectors at the platform level since they will all imbed and depend upon a social graph (social status signaling requires the social part), and the layering on of curation and reputation-building will only amplify platform dominance.

/5
In effect the NFTiverse hosting platforms will become the trusted validator-set of whatever underlying blockchain is used to track ownership.
If a NFT can’t be displayed on-platform then the “owner” doesn’t really own it in a meaningful way at all.

/6
In effect ownership becomes subject to the curation function at the platform level and re-orgs can happen arbitrarily as political-social consensus shifts.

/7
So it seems like an awful lot of trouble to dress up the ownership rights to these assets in an extremely expensive decentralized ledger when “true ownership” will actually be subject to the whims and goodwill of a handful of endpoint platforms…

/8
I suppose one could think of this epoch as creating the marketplace in which those platforms can fairly compete to become the trusted validators, but in the end-stage it is not clear to me that the decentralized ledger does anything to secure your rights as a jpg owner at all
fin

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More from @wintonARK

23 Aug
Continued thoughts

Why should Tesla’s rate of improvement in planning and control should exceed its competitors

🧵
One reason why Tesla's planning module should improve at a higher velocity than that of its competitors is due to an undeniable advantage in error-finding.

Tesla can measure simulated intervention rates on its human-driven fleet by running its software in shadow mode.

/1
Further, upon updating its planning module it can more easily verify/refute the efficacy of the change, again by running in shadow mode.

Put simply, due to its fleet Tesla has a much quicker driving-policy error-detection-->solution-verification loop than its competitors.

/2
Read 14 tweets
20 Aug
Perhaps useful (at this point) to compare to Tesla Vision to HD-mapping strategies where an understanding of the road layout and intersection shapes, stop-signs and traffic flow lane-mappings are held in-memory.

🧵
One can simultaneously understand why a Waymo or Cruise would pursue the HD-mapping strategy, and the vulnerabilities of such a rigid approach.

/1
Intuitively, you and I drive more easily on roads that we already know;

holding HD-maps in memory narrows the problem-space—the dynamic objects are things that don't appear on this map--in a way that appears more tractable.

/2
Read 11 tweets
20 Aug
some thoughts on tesla AI day



starting with Tesla Vision

🧵
The Tesla Vision work is extraordinary.

And vision is the right word for it.

(Massive kudos to @karpathy and team.)

/1
The black magic of the system: its ability to iteratively predict future driving surfaces, intersection shapes, exhibit object persistence, and generally provide an intuited truth-state of the world onto which prediction, policy and planning can be built.
/2
Read 15 tweets
21 Apr
I have solar.

Installed by Tesla since January.

Hasn't generated a single watt-hour.

Waiting for utility to approve the connection.
Attach bitcoin mining and sell into fiat, and the solar could have (probabilistically) generated $1,500 over this 3 months but instead has lain idle.

Compare to $17k for the full cost of the system (and $20k accommodating a right-sized miner.)
The system hasn't yet generated a watt-hour *and* I haven't yet paid a penny;

Tesla won't collect until the system is allowed to begin generating power.

(Put another way, I paid for this friction on the higher upfront cost required to pay back Tesla for its cost of capital.)
Read 5 tweets
21 Apr
A world with bitcoin is a world with an electric grid that can accommodate a higher share of renewable energy.

(Why do we think so? Read here: wintonark.medium.com/bitcoin-mining…)
A solar-battery system alone experiences decaying profitability as it attempts to accommodate a larger share of grid demand.
Paired with a bitcoin miner, however, the system can be effectively overpowered to hit baseload quality dispatch rates without hurting system profitability
Since the bitcoin-battery-solar system overbuilds solar (relative to battery) in order to provide baseload-competitive electricity, there is a likely second-order impact in furthering solar along its cost decline curve.
Read 4 tweets

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