Some might remember me periodically tweeting that more freight will be moved onto LoLo routings/ports as driver accompanied RoRo falls...BUT that isn't enough capacity here.
Ferries turned back as not enough discharging space for the trailers not customs cleared quickly enough
(again not enough qualified capacity/staff) nor lifted on quickly enough..Remember UK grown to be 85/15 *RoRo* dependent on EU hauliers/drivers keeping that circular back/forth EU/UK flow moving.
The efforts to use LoLo routings now at the point where the inbalance is too great
in the UK drivers ratio to the EU drivers dropping EU side. Operators here are warning they will need to reduce the number of free storage days.
The EU owners/operators of the trailers are pushing back saying they will simply stop sending over their unaccompanied trailers
if they cannot be customs (UK not even started on the SPS yet !!) processed and lifted by UK drivers quickly enough to meet the demand. **They can't be**
As I have long warned freight movements out of the SM/CU will "back up...stop" ..."no queues" was always the greater threat
than the maths calculated processing delays of "7000 lorry/80 mile queues"
(in the real world no haulier/driver is ever going to *start* a journey with *known* potential escalating mammoth costs beyond their control they - contracted - cannot pass on. Or even take the contracts)
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Not "news" to me
(was always out of SM&CU regardless of any "deal" guaranteed)
but a confirmation of what’s doing the rounds - received today: h/t @challifour
"Firstly I would like to thank you for your ongoing support and patience since January.
As I’m sure it is no secret to anyone, we have been under immense pressure and the challenges just keep mounting. I like to think we can all agree that Freight Transport have risen to the task well, having the understanding from customers has been just what we have needed
to get into the swing of things and maintain the highest possible standard of service. I have tried to leave customers alone whilst we all get used to the post Brexit way of doing things, but now it is time for my depressing Brexit updates to start once again as there is
Extract from latest Hull & Goole Port Health Authority update report
(To be Repeated across UK ports)
Brexit is far from "done"
The original volumetric data supplied to ports and port health authorities in 2020 on
predicted numbers of EU import checks was used in plans ...
for construction of the new
BCPs (Border Posts) and for additional resources required by port health authorities, with our successful
funding bid also based on those estimated volumes.
With greater knowledge, based on actual consignment volumes from EU to UK since 1
January 2021
new HMRC data now predicts the expected volumes of relevant EU
consignments arriving at our 2 BCPs will be far greater than originally envisaged, thus
placing additional pressures on the Authority and port operators to have sufficient
resources in place.
*Full* "customs". SPS especially..and safety/security "checks"; processes/certifications & declarations...
"you aint seen nothing yet" ..it does seem there will be no more delays in implementing GB "ham sandwich" & ciggies "checks" ??..
starting 1/10 through Jan to March 2022.
(these checks btw based on entering a different regulated market & customs territory not your nationality..so Brits returning to UK from EU will get the "treatment" as well as Dutch/EU citizens returning to NL/EU..oh & GB citizens entering NI. Don't try smuggling in a Scotch egg)
This *is* handy for what is coming ..& remember it's without that GB supply processing throughput capacity (nor even sufficient awareness from GB buyers/EU suppliers)
to meet this out of SM&CU demand.. h/t @BCCletts
A small country/market can set its own market standards...but bigger country/market manufacturers are not going to bother supplying a smaller country/market if they need to (not cost effective) change their standards.
The smaller country/market now has a choice:
offer its population less choice inc maybe of necessities (food & medicines) or accept the bigger country/market standards on *its* market.
That now means the smaller country/market manufacturers & producers are disadvantaged not just on the bigger country/market
(where their standards are not recognised) but also on their domestic market. They therefore will commercially ignore their own smaller country/market standards and manufacture/produce to the bigger country/market standards
to sell in that market & in their own smaller market.
I have had some DMs asking how UK can both be under threat of severe food shortages with decimated (not enough trucks) supply chains but also be needing permanent Op Brock legislation...
Let's see if I can explain again in simple terms
The above illustrated queue is typical Belarussia into EU pre-Covid impacted levels of traffic...now imagine how little comparitive trade there is between Russia
(transiting Belarussia) & Belarussia/EU.
Yet such queues..why?
Answer: The processing throughput through the border reflects Belarussia being outside the Single Market and outside the/a customs union with the EU and not having any legal convergence (wanting the right of full divergence) agreement.
Ring any bells on a new EU "relationship"?
I note there have been many opinions that business has had "plenty of time" to adjust for a life outside the SM/CU...putting aside the ignorance of some not appreciating what would be needed/how things would adversely change regardless of the "Canada style"/any FTA deal ...1/
including incredibly & inexcusably the acute ignorance from the Chairman of @marksandspencer ..
consider this: for life outside the SM/CU the UK needed an extra 50,000 customs agents (Gov accepted figure); approx 5,000 customs officers; approx 2,000 vets/health inspectors & ..2/
of course the now well documented tens of thousands of HGV drivers
None of these were *needed* until day 1 out of the SM/CU...they were all redundant until then. Market forces dictated that no business would've invested heavily here while still operating as part of the SM/CU..3/