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Mahmudur Rahman

@mahmudme01

29 Aug

It is really scary to speak against vaccination in public when I personally somewhat convinced that vaccine helps to prevent hospitalizations & deaths. If people avoid taking it and contract COVID while not knowing how they can reduce sickness, then it is a very tragic situation.

When someone asks me what he would do regarding vaccination, my advice generally goes to take it with some explanation because I know he won't be able to follow the NPIs that I generally follow simply due to a lack of confidence.

My year-long research on weather & COVID dynamics led me to view differently on vaccination. I noticed that our experts have zero understandings of weather's role on respiratory illnesses. If they knew it, they would definitely set this as a control parameter in vaccine trials.

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Mahmudur Rahman

@mahmudme01

28 Aug

We mostly studied US covid cases last year Fall-Winter time. We found that there is a certain indoor wet bulb temp which is more contagious than the others. This calculation is approximately accurate when people are supposed to use heaters or do not use indoor ACs.

However, during cooling time calculation and prediction is far more complicated. Therefore, I checked US COVID cases for weather conditions from March 20th 2021 to March 28th 2021 when US had a plateau or slight increase in cases. My calculation includes 1532 US counties.

I found exactly the same pattern as what I found from last year's case studies. There is an existence of a virus fav indoor climate. Here is my validation argument- you can get a low number of cases for any indoor condition because there may have multiple factors involved in it.

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Mahmudur Rahman

@mahmudme01

28 Aug

If vaccinated persons have COVID symptoms, after getting the shot (no matter when happening), they should be tested while not ignoring as a vaccine side effect. If they become negative in the nasal swabs, in clinical trials they are termed as COVID suspected but not confirmed.

Within 7 days after taking any shot, the vaccinated group, in the Pfizer-BioNTech clinical trial, had a higher number of suspected but not confirmed cases compared to the placebo group. Therefore, I believe any such symptomatic case should be further recommended for stool tests.

If their nasal swab tested negative, they still may shed virus from shared toilets or in the same household. If you look at kid's hospitalization, you notice that this is all-time high since the pandemic began even though cases were at peak in January. covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…

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Mahmudur Rahman

@mahmudme01

26 Aug

Israel and Lebanon are neighboring countries. Israel vaccinated its population massively (67.95%), while Lebanon did not (only 18.49%). Technically speaking, Israel should be in a much better position than Lebanon.

Both countries had a recent summer surge. However, Lebanon curve already turned down. The death rate in both countries also differs significantly. Despite very low vaccination, Lebanon is in a much better position.

Vaccination clearly does not show a positive outcome. Let's examine their respective weather. Even though they are neighboring countries, they share different weather at different locations. However, weather is similar in both countries' capital, located in coastal areas.

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Mahmudur Rahman

@mahmudme01

21 Aug

@EricTopol

@EricTopol In winter (outdoor temp at 5C), 14 fold decreases, and in summer (outdoor temp at 18C) 2 fold decreases. They did not mention the place. I would check the humidity. Now our study suggests 12-13C WBT is the most infectious. Therefore it was safe with windows open in winter. 1/

@EricTopol

@EricTopol However, in summer when windows were open WBT could be near to 12-14C. It will depend on humidity as well. They said something bizarre in the discussion. In winter, natural ventilation is low which is related to diffusion. But when you keep windows open you expect convection. 2/

@EricTopol

@EricTopol Their argument about ventilation is not the right thing here. In both climates, they kept windows open and got two different outcomes. The temperature and relative humidity which has played the ultimate role here. Therefore, when you ventilate you have to be careful on this. 3/

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Mahmudur Rahman

@mahmudme01

8 Jul

@DocWoc71

@DocWoc71 @CarlosdelRio7 @cla_cor @SochinfOficial @BrendaCrabtreeR @ManucoMd @MInternapy @medpedshosp How come this plot says the vaccine is effective? Once someone is infected during a single dose, he/she will never be infected after 2nd dose- either the person will die or recover. COVID reinfection is rare. Therefore, effectiveness after the second dose will always be higher!

@DocWoc71

@DocWoc71 @CarlosdelRio7 @cla_cor @SochinfOficial @BrendaCrabtreeR @ManucoMd @MInternapy @medpedshosp Another point here is that this is large-scale data. 10.2 million participants. This finding is a big deal. The plot clearly shows that infection is higher in one dose vax people than unvax people. If the vaccine helps spread the virus, many unvax people suffered from it.

@DocWoc71

@DocWoc71 @CarlosdelRio7 @cla_cor @SochinfOficial @BrendaCrabtreeR @ManucoMd @MInternapy @medpedshosp Calculate effectiveness this way- make sample of the same amount of vaxed and unvaxed people. Subtract no. of cases from one dose vax people from the cases of unvax people. Becasue this amount of people would catch virus anyway if they were vaccinated. now find effectiveness.

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