Initial thoughts on the catastrophe unraveling in #Afghanistan
1 - This flashbulb moment - this catastrophic withdrawal suddenly reminds us of the *people* stuck under Taliban rule. People we have largely ignored since we all put down The Kite Runner.
1 - This flashbulb moment - this catastrophic withdrawal suddenly reminds us of the *people* stuck under Taliban rule. People we have largely ignored since we all put down The Kite Runner.
2 - US strategies and tactics are now all, rightly, being questioned. Why? Because the brutal imagery of the withdrawal and the murder of 15 reminds us of the humans subject to the caprice of the meandering grand proclamations from Presidents and Mullahs.
3 - Do strategies fail when the stories of the people subject to them are absent from our national psyche?
We know *horrors* occur when we dehumanize others, should we learn *errors* occur when policy making doesn't have a heavy dose of empathy?
We know *horrors* occur when we dehumanize others, should we learn *errors* occur when policy making doesn't have a heavy dose of empathy?
4 - This is no argument to invade non-core countries over human rights. Redesigning AF to end their support for terror & medieval human rights abuses (the latter always tertiary), was a noble sub-goal, but incompatible with the DNA of the U.S. military
5 - A Taliban-led horror now emerges. Increasingly our efforts to save Afghanistan will be seen as poorly considered and/or executed. Nation building was impossible for the DOD in more familiar countries, how would it work in the tribal lawlessness that is much of Afghanistan?
6 - A noble goal but one the DOD can not accomplish. Yes, this echoes of "Graveyard of Empires" thinking, so I am reminded of @LTGHRMcMaster brilliant point "We often stress cultural differences in a way that masks our shared humanity." apple.co/3yn0UuA @bariweiss
7 - (ie. What mom wants their 12 yr old married to a 50 yr old?). I argue I can agree with H.R. & simultaneously believe the US is incapable of hitting the virtuous goal of rebuilding a nation as culturally different as Afghanistan (or perhaps any nation) nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/24550…
8 - Logical grand strategy - post '05 we lacked one. And Grand Strategy is the easy part! Easy to opine on grand strategy because hard to be held accountable for results (see the Dardanelles "the policy was right, execution was wrong""Incompetence Dodge") prospect.org/features/incom…
9 - Why was there no good grand strategy post '05? Did we know we couldn't sell nation building
Many say we shouldn’t have stayed, and those who do, like @LTGHRMcMaster, say we did it wrong almost the whole time.
Many say we shouldn’t have stayed, and those who do, like @LTGHRMcMaster, say we did it wrong almost the whole time.
10 - @stavridisj notes structural & strategic failures: e.g. "pattern of 1 year tours—understandable from a human perspective—deeply hurt the military effort. It is not an exaggeration to say we didn’t fight a 20 year war, but rather 20 one-year wars"time.com/6090623/afghan…
11- People & Stories matter @stavridisj "we did not create the conditions on the home front that could have sustained a truly long-term effort. As casualties dropped while we withdrew the vast majority of troops under Obama, the war ..simply fell off the media and national radar.
12 - @stavridisj "Across multiple administrations we failed to communicate why our presence in AF was still useful and what benefit the US and our allies derived from the expenditure of lives and treasure."
12.5 - A strategic sin: 9/20, @mikepompeo signed a surrender agreement with the Taliban and simultaneously committed the next president to Trump's policy (bad form), threw the AF government under the bus, and laid down with the devil independent.co.uk/news/world/ame…
13 -Today's Tactical Failure - "the complex machinery" collapsed as @richardclarke puts it - DOD's execution of @JoeBiden's order to get us out of Afghanistan by date certain - was clearly a profound FUBAR. Shockingly bad. A crisis on many levels. What happened?
14 - It is not a President's job to ask every question, or decide every tactic "move twenty Jersey barriers here, call all the friendly embassies, keep Bagram Airport... secure Kabul"- that’s DOD’s job. Execute what the President asks, competently,
...or tell him you can not.
...or tell him you can not.
15- I am clearly curious about Cassandras - who warned what, to whom? NBC says CIA predicted the fall of Kabul to within two weeks. Was Biden told? DOD planners?
How was Cassandra ignored?
nbcnews.com/politics/natio…
How was Cassandra ignored?
nbcnews.com/politics/natio…
16- Humans learn through stories not stats. How was the warning shared? Imagine if in July CIA showed Biden a mocked up New York Times "20 U.S. Troops Killed in Kabul" - painting the human and high-personal-consequence-story for him rushing the U.S. exit.
17- That's how to deliver an evidenced warning. That personal story would have moved his policy.
(No, that is not hindsight bias. To limbically activate them, Ergo illustrates for clients our worst case scenarios in just this way.)
(No, that is not hindsight bias. To limbically activate them, Ergo illustrates for clients our worst case scenarios in just this way.)
18- Again - human stories. Why wasn't a refugee advocate at the table asking hard questions? Was
@PowerUSAID in the cabinet meetings doing what she does as well as anyone - seeing around corners and explaining the human cost of short-sighted policy or immature execution plans?
@PowerUSAID in the cabinet meetings doing what she does as well as anyone - seeing around corners and explaining the human cost of short-sighted policy or immature execution plans?
19 - Do we suffer for lack of gritty expertise at the top? See @richardclarke bit.ly/3kohFR2 "likely.. civilian National Security Council leaders are, as a group, inexperienced as managers of difficult contingency operations, better at giving advice about grand strategy
20 - "... where it is always difficult to determine performance, than at making the complex machinery of national security work." (Yes, good tactics can never fix bad strategy but this is execution.) @richardclarke
21- Strategic Costs of Withdrawal Fiasco
1. ISIS bombing of US troops shows terrorism risk from AF is not trivial
2. Post Trump, US was supposed to look competent, rationale: boom- we don't.
We have deep flaws even minus the divide MAGA illuminated
1. ISIS bombing of US troops shows terrorism risk from AF is not trivial
2. Post Trump, US was supposed to look competent, rationale: boom- we don't.
We have deep flaws even minus the divide MAGA illuminated
22-
3. The animosity of Trump land now, finally, has a bonafide screw-up to blame on Biden. Will it stick in the mid terms - check voting rights driven shifts and historical precedent
4. In the general election - check your swing voters
3. The animosity of Trump land now, finally, has a bonafide screw-up to blame on Biden. Will it stick in the mid terms - check voting rights driven shifts and historical precedent
4. In the general election - check your swing voters
23- It's too late but, wouldn't this policy have made sense?
The US largely pulls out, but a small invited force stays to:
1. Ensure Kabul doesn't fall,
2. Run air operations and small CIA and JSOC elements to support Kabul and counter-terror efforts
The US largely pulls out, but a small invited force stays to:
1. Ensure Kabul doesn't fall,
2. Run air operations and small CIA and JSOC elements to support Kabul and counter-terror efforts
@threadreaderapp unroll
Must read- this is the Cassandra of the botched #AfghanEvac
Gritty on the ground experts.
The famous State Department Dissent Channel.
We ignore Cassandra all the time.
Why?
@WarningsBook @richardclarke @mideastXmidwest
prospect.org/world/unheeded…
Gritty on the ground experts.
The famous State Department Dissent Channel.
We ignore Cassandra all the time.
Why?
@WarningsBook @richardclarke @mideastXmidwest
prospect.org/world/unheeded…
How did this warning not make it to the top?
US tax payers paid these experts (career diplomats) to make this warning. Why were they ignored?
prospect.org/world/unheeded…
US tax payers paid these experts (career diplomats) to make this warning. Why were they ignored?
prospect.org/world/unheeded…
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