More chart crimes! The Fed *is* the market part deux:
I've had a few claim that these charts are inaccurate due to scale variance. While there's truth to the statement, the charts aren't meant to be 1:1. QEternity gives commercials the capacity to scale up leverage in markets. Many seem to have missed this because of 2D thinking.
The reality is that central bank liquidity flows provide the juice that risk assets need for upward price revisions. If that wasn't true, why is there a correlation that spans over a decade between central bank balance sheet size (QE) and risk asset pricing?
For those who remain unconvinced, I would suggest spending some time researching this topic at length. Monetary policy's transmission mechanism is directly in to financial markets. That is one reason why economic growth (ie employment/wages) vs market pricing are hard to compare.
On the other side of that, when QE is reduced, we see markets shudder, often seeing periods of intensifying volatility until the punch bowl is returned. Perhaps as revealing is that no advanced country's central bank has fully normalized QE policies. Ever.
The reason for all of this is the world is hooked on ever cheapening debt. A 40+ year debt supercycle with lower and lower rates and more abundant debts. Every liquidity stick save by central banks thusly requires an increasingly outsize response to stabilize credit markets.
In summary:
QE++ == market++;
QE-- == market--.
The best part of FinTwit is how many blocks you can earn when people don't bother to think outside of the box. 🤣
Or being called a "joke" because people can't understand the larger message, and when it is explained they retort with personal attacks.
The joke is on them if they aren't able to think critically! 😂😂
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Remember that one time before the GFC when subprime lending was all the rage, and the companies which engaged in it, and selling the toxic paper, all looked amazing until they suddenly didn't?
Then ..
Notice how many "FinTech" companies are basically glorified subprime lenders?
This is worth paying attention to, in particular because the consumer looks quite vulnerable here insofar as reaching a new debt record, lower savings rates, high underemployment/low labor force participation, and many gov't stimulus packages trailing off. Defaults should rise.
Not only that, but the appetite for debt is likely to be reduced as consumer confidence hits 11 year lows, retail sales fade, and inflationary pressures undermine purchasing power across the board for discretionary spending by the bottom 60% of earners.
$NET: I've heard from several contacts over the last two weeks that Cloudflare is meaningfully raising prices on their 'Enterprise' plans. The core driver is resource utilization, and clients are being told that this is because $NET is now a public company.
1/
On the one hand, it could be argued that $NET feels so confident about its moat that it can justify raising prices and these same clients will simply soak up the costs, allowing Cloudflare to push toward profitability.
2/
On the other hand, these same contacts have told me that the price raises (as much as 140% in some cases higher), have compressed their margins meaningfully. In some cases pushing them in to negative territory.
3/
I've been raising concerns about where we are with markets from a macro, valuation, positioning, and technical perspective for about a week now.
Apparently several leading Wall Street banks are sounding alarms now, too, about a near-term correction or slow decline over months.
I don't feel the end of the bull market is near, but I do think that there's an abundance of signs that the rally is less than healthy: narrow leadership, exuberant retail options and equity positioning, lack of sufficient 'sidelines' capital to buy a sizable dip, stretched techs
The other area of concern is that real rates are rising, and that's often harmful for many risk assets, including growth, tech, crypto, precious metals, junk debt, etc. Basically any competing duration asset becomes less appealing as those rates approach neutral/positive.
A meaningful decline in consumer sentiment, and a softening of retail spend may portend to a compression in lending, softening related income streams. Important to watch if this trend continues, along with a reduction in homebuying demand, and auto unavailability/price increases.
In fact, business and consumer borrowing has already meaningfully slowed post-COVID crisis, which is one reason there has been such strong demand for Treasuries.