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28 Aug, 4 tweets, 2 min read
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INSA poll for Bild am Sonntag puts SPD on 24% and CDU/CSU on 21%, its worst ever result in an INSA poll and joint-worst poll result ever.

The stakes ahead of first TV debate between Scholz, Laschet and Baerbock tomorrow night could hardly be higher...
Though this ought to keep SPDler feet on the ground: INSA poll also shows slip in Scholz's previously rising numbers in the preferred-chancellor stakes (sometimes a leading indicator for voting intention), with "none of the above" retaking the lead

...which means we can keep using the excellent German word Wahlkrimi ("election thriller" ie a tight election race with the suspense of a crime novel).
And while the SPD's poll rises are many things, a "youthquake" isn't one of them. INSA shows just 13% of 18-29 year olds support Scholz's party, compared with 31% of those aged 60 and over. Greens & FDP ahead among the young.

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More from @JeremyCliffe

Jeremy Cliffe Profile picture
12 Sep
The 2nd 🇩🇪 TV debate (of 3) is about to start. Backdrop: SPD lead under Scholz has stabilised; CDU/CSU fightback under Laschet is running out of time; Greens under Baerbock haven't broken through.

Much more on the SPD surge on our Germany Elects podcast:
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/wha…
Opening question begins with coalition options. Laschet barrels in with his favourite talking point (that Scholz would bring the socialist Left party into power). Baerbock gives nuanced reply on similarities (social justice policies) and differences (foreign policy) with Left.
Scholz gives his stock answer - almost word-for-word his reply in debate 1. Doesn't rule out a deal with Left but stresses importance of foreign and defence policy.

As before: Scholz would prefer not to govern with Left but wants to maximise leverage in coalition talks.
Read 30 tweets
Jeremy Cliffe Profile picture
29 Aug
The 1st of 3 TV debates between Olaf Scholz (SPD), Armin Laschet (CDU/CSU) & Annalena Baerbock (Green) is about to begin.

Election is in exactly four weeks (26 September). Background, discussion & more on our @NewStatesman podcast series Germany Elects:

newstatesman.com/podcasts/2021/…
Election is very open, with the top three parties vying for first place. Some 5 different coalitions after election are currently arithmetically conceivable. Momentum is with SPD, so onus tonight is on Laschet and Baerbock to change the narrative.
Warm-up question. Each is invited to criticise the others, but all largely duck the question (bar an oblique dig at Scholz over SPD climate policies from Baerbock) and instead set out their stalls.
Read 37 tweets
Jeremy Cliffe Profile picture
17 Jul
German president Steinmeier delivers a sombre speech about help for communities devastated by floods while in background CDU chancellor candidate Armin Laschet appears to laugh himself silly about some joke:

There are many CDUers, including on Laschet’s own centrist wing, who fear he’s ultimately a natural small-town mayor who is out of his depth as frontrunner to succeed Merkel. Others counter that his jovial, folksy style is his strength. This clip will strengthen the former camp.
Another theory this may strengthen is that Laschet has mixed feelings about being chancellor candidate at all. I understand he was talked into running to block right-winger Merz, and only after that point came to like the idea. Deep down, does he really want to be chancellor?
Read 8 tweets
Jeremy Cliffe Profile picture
11 Jul
Whatever tonight's result, the European Championship has been a seminal moment in the emergence of a liberal, progressive English identity.

That's a big step forward. The next question is how to make that progressive English pride less about the past and more about the future.
In 2015 I wrote a paper called Britain's Cosmopolitan Future about the "Londonisation of Britain" and how the capital's values were rippling out to the rest of the country, and what that might mean for the future of UK (but especially English) politics.

policynetwork.org/wp-content/upl…
Today I see what I described 6 years ago as the "emerging cosmopolitan majority" in polls showing that voters support the England team taking the knee.

Whisper it softly, as it doesn't fit the trendy narrative of national polarisation, but the UK and England are changing fast.
Read 4 tweets
Jeremy Cliffe Profile picture
7 Jun
A @NewStatesman exclusive: With the G7 summit just 4 days away, over a dozen members of Congress have written to Joe Biden urging him to stand up to Boris Johnson over the UK's foreign aid cuts.

newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
Sent to the White House yesterday, the letter notes that the £4 billion in UK aid cuts will have "negative impacts in at least 11 countries", will end all UK development work in Latin America and "undermines our collective global response" to the crisis:

newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
The letter is signed by @JoaquinCastrotx, @IlhanMN, @RepBarbaraLee, @RoKhanna & others.

"President Biden’s first diplomatic trip abroad is to the UK, which demonstrates... our special relationship but also our shared responsibilities", Castro tells us:

newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
Read 4 tweets
Jeremy Cliffe Profile picture
6 Jun
Despite feverish speculation about a neck-and-neck race between CDU and AfD in today's Saxony-Anhalt election, 1st projection puts CDU *13.5* points ahead. Results to come but looks like a triumph for Reiner Haseloff. Another reminder of perils of over-hyping the far right.
Yes, the AfD has stabilised as a significant and alarming presence in German politics, especially in the eastern federal states. Even on this projection (which might understate its final result) the party has taken more than 1 in 5 votes in Saxony-Anhalt today.
But narrative of AfD "surge" etc just doesn't reflect the reality. It lost seats at last 3 state elections and (if projection is right) may do so in Saxony-Anhalt today. It hasn't profited from Covid-19. It is on track for a flat or lower result in September's federal election.
Read 4 tweets

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