Thread by @JeremyCliffe

The 1st of 3 TV debates between Olaf Scholz (SPD), Armin Laschet (CDU/CSU) & Annalena Baerbock (Green) is about to begin.

Election is in exactly four weeks (26 September). Background, discussion & more on our @NewStatesman podcast series Germany Elects:

newstatesman.com/podcasts/2021/…

Election is very open, with the top three parties vying for first place. Some 5 different coalitions after election are currently arithmetically conceivable. Momentum is with SPD, so onus tonight is on Laschet and Baerbock to change the narrative.

Warm-up question. Each is invited to criticise the others, but all largely duck the question (bar an oblique dig at Scholz over SPD climate policies from Baerbock) and instead set out their stalls.

First policy question is foreign policy & Afghanistan. Laschet: "we must strengthen Europe such that we never have to leave it up to Americans... we have to equip our military forces better". Goes on attack v Scholz, criticising SPD's policies on drones.

Sidebar: it's very welcome to see TV debate leading on foreign policy (shamefully neglected in 2017 election).

More on the geopolitical choices before Germany, and what voters think, in Episode 2 of our Germany Elects pod:

newstatesman.com/podcasts/2021/…

Baerbock criticises govt for lack of officials to process visas in Kabul airlift. Also takes aim at NATO's 2%/GDP defence spending target; says it's too arbitrary and not an end in itself (a neat formula that papers over divides on the bigger picture within her own Greens).

First serious clash is between Laschet, clearly in attack mode, and a cooler Scholz. Laschet criticises SPD for opposing use of armed drones. His strategy is clearly to turn Scholz's strength (continuity, experience) against him.

Baerbock lays into the CDU/CSU grand goalition over handling of Afghanistan crisis: "you put domestic politics over foreign policy responsibility". Scholz & Laschet both do their best to distance self from failings.

Now Covid-19. Scholz is asked about a new lockdown for the unvaccinated. "I don't think that would be right... it's not in consideration for me", though adds that more could be done on eg mask policy. Laschet agrees, Baerbock slightly more reluctant to rule out new lockdown.

Laschet (relatively lockdown-sceptic throughout the pandemic) asked about the "Zick-Zack-Kurs" [chaotic policies] in his state of North Rhine-Westphalia. Says kids, especially those with multiple siblings, just won't learn as much at home as in school.

Baerbock criticises Laschet's record re air filters in schools. He retorts that Greens govern in 11 out of 16 states (!). Baerbock now defending Green-led government in Baden-Württemberg.

All 3 attempting a balancing act: "I know government but am not responsible for failures."

Yes/no questions.

Obligatory vaccines in certain professions? Baerbock - potentially. Laschet & Scholz - no.

Mask/vaccine/recovery requirement in long-distance transport? Scholz & Baerbock - yes. Laschet - waffles.

Tonal observations: Laschet is the most energetic and punchy of the three. In both of 1st two sections he has used the most time and been one setting the tempo of the discussion. But then, he *has* to change the narrative as the presumptive frontrunner now falling behind.

3rd subject: climate change. What would they do/ban first? Baerbock says solar panels on roofs + move to end petrol-driven car sales from 2030. Scholz cites renewables. Laschet says wouldn't ban anything, says banning is for the others, then waffles about "expansion targets".

It's becoming a cliché in this election campaign that Scholz is posing as the new Merkel (see below photo from a recent @SZ interview). But it really is true in this debate. He's avoiding conflict; talking in genial generalities; posing as the dull, reasonable middle ground.

Baerbock very confident and energetic on climate change. She takes on Scholz for saying he doesn't want to ban things - some things (eg oil heating) need to be banned, she says. Holds her ground on eg social justice dimension of electric car subsidies.

Laschet tries to attack Green "Energiegeld" policy (a welfare payment to balance out costs of decarbonisation for the worse-off). Baerbock hits back convincingly: Switzerland & Canada already have such policies.

Yes/no question. Holiday: on North Sea coast or Majorca? Laschet: politicians should't decide that. Baerbock: that's a silly question (it's not about individuals, it's about politics). Scholz: wherever you're happiest.

A silly question, but a curiously revealing one.

New question: tax cuts?

Scholz: shouldn't be any talk of tax cuts for high-earning people like me, but we have abolished "solidarity" (reunification) tax for lowest 90% earners.

Laschet replies with dubiously credible but gutsy fury about how tax receipts not tax rates matter.

Laschet dominated 1st half of this debate. Baerbock is dominating the 2nd half of it. She tackles him on what CDU/CSU tax cuts would mean for a single mother, Laschet waffles. Baerbock emotively talks of parents who can't afford to buy new school bags for their kids.

Service tweet: there's a meme on this website that there's no substantive difference between the three leading parties in this German election.

The distributional profile of their tax/spending proposals tells a different story, as this from @SZ shows:

New focus: social cohesion. Laschet criticises Greens for opposing use of CCTV. Baerbock says as a woman she knows what it's like to feel unsafe in public spaces, talks about equipping and funding police better.

Gender-inflected language (aka 🇩🇪 culture wars). Scholz: up to individuals but I use female and male noun forms for traditionally male professions. Baerbock: language changes with society. Laschet: be sensitive but don't "invent a language that normal people don't understand".

Once more, Baerbock lands the memorable line, avoiding culture-war silliness while standing firm: "we are a diverse society and this diversity should become normality"

Fascinating new theme, about the enduring east-west divide. Scholz delivers his most compelling lines of the debate so far, talking about his time as labour lawyer in 1990s representing workers in conflicts with the Treuhand (agency set up to privatise East German industries).

Now candidates presented with 5 possible coalitions (told you so). Jamaica (⚫️🟢🟡), traffic-light (🔴🟢🟡), Germany (🔴/⚫️🟡), red-green-red (🔴🟢🟣), Kenya (🔴/⚫️🟢).

Laschet goes for Scholz over possibility of red-green-red coalition with the Left. Says (rightly) that they shamefully voted against Afghanistan rescue mission. Challenges Scholz to say yes or no if he'd let the Left party vote him in as chancellor and put Left in cabinet.

Scholz wriggles out of it. (In practice he has no interest in red-green-red, but can't say so as doing that would (1) damage his impressively harmonious relations with the SPD left and (2) give FDP greater leverage in talks for the traffic-light coalition that he would prefer.)

Laschet is asked about the "pizza connection", a 1990s group in Bonn where centrist CDUers met with Green politicians (and of which he was part). Brushes that aside, but he does concede a preference for a deal with the FDP. In short, he wants Jamaica.

Final statements. Baerbock: stop another grand coalition, protect environment, reform Germany. Scholz: respect in society, better wages + stable pensions + modernisation. Laschet: change demands stability + fortitude, I'm the one to lead that.

Verdict. Laschet was energetic if hit-and-miss. Baerbock was strong and held her own in the 1st such chancellor debate with a Green candidate. Scholz was underwhelming but solid (à la Merkel).

The vast majority of Germans will only experience tonight's debate, if at all, in skimmed TV/newspaper headlines tomorrow. That plus the fact that none of the chancellor candidates significantly disrupted the emerging narrative means tonight is unlikely to have moved the dial.

But I'll say this: kudos to @RTLde and @ntvde for an open and well-structured debate. In 2017 the one TV debate (hosted by public broadcasters) was a disgrace: 4 presenters to 2 candidates, poor and stilted questions, no real discussion. This was a lot, lot better.

Two more Scholz-Laschet-Baerbock TV debates to come: one hosted by the public broadcasters on 12 September and one by private channel ProSieben on 23 September.

And you can follow all of our @NewStatesman coverage at:

newstatesman.com/germany

Next episode of our Germany Elects podcast out this coming week.

Listen and subscribe via the World Review podcast feed (on Apple, Google, Acast, Spotify etc) and here:

newstatesman.com/podcasts/2021/…

[ENDS]

PS: Snap poll puts Scholz and Baerbock as the winners:

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1432080655320588296

(Correction: That was which candidate respondents liked best. The question of whom they saw as the overall winner was a more resounding win for Scholz:

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1432079795635068937

)