1/n Thread on GDP estimates for Q1 FY22. The 20.1% growth is from a low base -- the economy had contracted 24.3% in the same quarter last year. So we are still playing catch up. Ideally, we should have done far better #GDP
2/n Also remember these are estimates based on data that has largely based on the big organised formal sector and then extrapolated. So it will definitely be revised as more data is collected.. informal data takes a lot longer to collect #GDP
3/n What should worry people is that the composition of growth. While government spending is driving a lot of growth and some sectors like manufacturing and construction is doing well, the private consumption data is worrying #GDP
4/n The private consumption data, when you put it with other signs of distress like higher gold loans, more number of Housing EMI defaults etc as well as higher poverty numbers show that a majority of citizens are suffering which the macro picture does not entire capture #GDP
5/n and n/n The GDP numbers for the next two quarters will be crucial to see if the private consumption figures are going up or not. Govt spending and the revenues and profits of a few big companies alone will not do #GDP
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