1/ Is the new Navios Partners $NMM turning over a new leaf?
They took the time to speak with me after the conference call this morning.
My takeaway: There seems to be a genuine interest to improve investor relations and lay a foundation to close the NAV gap in the future.
2/ I don't love tankers right now as I don't expect to see profitable tanker rates anytime soon, but the $NNA deal terms were fair on a NAV for NAV basis and we could very well be at the bottom of the tanker asset value cycle and expect a very strong tanker market 2023 forward.
3/ The first major thing to love about this deal is the scale it creates with the largest US listed ship owner by vessel count. This will be pretty hard to ignore going forward. I expect more analyst coverage, transparency, and a narrowing of the massive gap to NAV.
4/ The next thing to love is the removal of a related party overhang and a back-door insider buy in the process. The CEO and major shareholder Angeliki Frangou exchanged $30m of $NNA debt for $NMM shares. She knows $NMM is a crazy bargain here and now we have better alignment.
5/ A simpler Navios structure is better for shareholders, and the $NNA deal simplifies things a lot. I plan to explore the potential outcomes from the remaining Navios entity $NM in depth in a forthcoming article, but I believe most of the uncertainty to now be behind us.
6/ This saga has had many twists and turns but so far the core of the $NMM thesis continues to play out as planned. $NMM is still too cheap to ignore and is now too big to ignore. Wall St. seems to have taken notice. seekingalpha.com/article/444909…
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Global shipping fleet in perspective thanks to UNCTAD. New ship order books for #tankers and #drybulk are at decade lows, yet shipyards are full through 2023-end with orders from other sectors. Sure looks like a massive shortage of aggregate shipbuilding capacity coming 2024+
Shipyard capacity has been declining for a decade and 2022 will be the most painful year for shipbuilders yet. Orders have since recovered, but many yards have locked in contracts at unprofitable levels due to high steel prices and could post losses through 2023.
Although it is obvious that more shipbuilding capacity will be needed to replace the surge of ships ordered during the last boom, shipbuilders will only begin repairing balance sheets in 2024 and will need years of profitability before planning new capacity.
1/ ESG will be a huge tailwind for commodity trade in the coming years. Higher quality ores take significantly less energy to smelt. High quality supplies from further afield will replace lower quality supplies closer to production centers requiring far more #drybulk ton miles
2/ Using steel making as a case study we can see this effect with the 2 major steel making ingredients: iron ore and met coal. With capital markets closing off to coal investments, only the highest quality met coal projects will attract capital and prices will remain elevated:
3/ High coal prices combined with existing and impending carbon taxes will incentivize the highest quality iron ore supplies which use less coal. The market is already pricing this in with futures for high grade price premiums widening significantly in future years:
New $ATCO press release out today reveals that they are achieving more than 90% financing on their newbuilds and that since their conference call early May they have signed forward contracts for nearly 30 ships that had contracts expiring in 2021 and 2022. prnewswire.com/news-releases/…
Although the corresponding 6k filed today is cryptic and doesn't provide the terms of the new charters for the 30 ships mentioned, the CEO mentioned on the call in early May that they were looking at $27k for 5 years on panamax which has only increased meaningfully since then.
The 6k reveals that exactly 15 of these 2021 and 2022 charter rolls were negotiated in June and we can deduce from the commentary on the conference call that another 10-15 were negotiated after the conference call in May.
1/ Pro tips for import companies struggling with $20k container rates:
Don't bank on rates going back down before the end of the year. Rates are just as likely to go higher with back to school and holiday shopping seasons coming up.
2/ Inventory to sales ratios are still near record lows which means we can expect to continue breaking import volume records through peak season
3/ Although container rates may ease in early 2022 after peak season, expect container rates to stay very high until mid-2023 as 2022 will see the least new ship capacity delivered in over a decade.