Thread by @sainik636

1. ONE LONE VOICE ...... Q: If a tree falls in a forest, and there’s no one around to hear it, does it make a sound?🙄 Another "rant" in 10 parts.

2. Yesterday, I ranted through 25 Tweets on the current market conditions. Going by the response, the above question assumes relevance. Adding another edition today in the fond hope that some of you may find meaning in what I tried/trying to convey.

3.Had made my observations of the market here on WhatsApp & CH discussions that while its futile to "Catch a top" in terms of Numbers, it may be still a good idea to "time" the market in terms of ... well "Time"

4. Hence I had said September is the time to be very careful with long positions based on a detailed study of the past & current. Was reminded by several friend yesterday that "my time" had come.😳

5. September traditionally is a "Big Moves" month. Direction may not be certain but the magnitude is.

6.This month has the following positive triggers : i)Continued CB support globally. ii) Huge Inflows into domestic MFs iii). Increasing retail participation through Direct access/Small cases etc. iv). Huge number of vaccinations v). Stability of Corona cases vi).Opening up of Eco

7. vii). Improving Macros : Tax Collections viii ) Improving Micros eg Corporate Results , Increase in salaries/increments in Tech & allied sectors. ix- x ... Many others which I might have missed out.

8. Negatives : i) INFLATION ii) Valuations iii) Drop in Liquidity iv ) Increase of IPOs/FPOs v) FOMO feelings

9.Always a risk to look for an exact TOP either in PRICE or for that matter even TIME . Learnt the folly of timing in terms of PRICE in '07, when I wrote a newspaper article calling for a TOP in Dec.'07 @ Sensex 20k. It topped out only after another 1000+ points in Jan'08 😱

10. My wife always criticises me that I get the mood of the market right but timing horribly wrong. She suspects I was a "premature baby". In my defence, I remind her of October 2008. 😷

@threadreaderapp "unroll"

11.Someone asked me just now when were the recent times I had made "premature" predictions. It was in Dec'17 when I felt Small Caps had gone berserk & Dec'19 when I felt Mkts were ignoring Wuhan crisis. In both cases Mkts continued their ascent for a further month and a half.