SAINIK Profile picture
5 Sep, 11 tweets, 3 min read
1. MY BIGGEST REGRET : Recently on a CH session, a guy asked me whether I regretted my decision to accumulate Dec Put options in end July when Nifty was around 16k. My reply : I never regret my actions made after a great amount of study so long as only I lose money.
2. Regret happens when others take my advice & lose money or don't make money. However in the past have regretted since others took my advice & lost an opportunity.
3. July 2013. Had identified a stock after a great deal of Research, which then was the most hated. Had traded a long time b/w Rs.21-24 & rapidly fell to Rs.18 when it caught my attention. Immediately alerted everyone I knew that it was a bargain for LT. Most believed me & acted.
4. It fell further to my luck.😱. Made them average further till Rs. 15, since it looked a better bargain at Rs. 15😷 which was 50 % of its 52 week high.😳. They had agreed to hold for LT, but in six weeks they panicked. I started getting angry phone calls. 😔
5. To add insult to injury, my mentor had suggested my name to his Uncle who wanted to invest in Stocks. The gentleman had sold a property for Rs. 5 cr. & wanted to invest just 10 % of the funds in stocks since he was risk averse. Suggested that he put all of it in just 1 stock🙄
6. He was naturally outraged. He knew all about the scrip & he thought I was joking. Since "everyone" knew that the Co. was in a very bad shape. I could not argue that "Market discounts the future"🤪. Told him in LT ( 3 years) it will turnaround since it had a good pedigree.
7. For every argument he put, I countered. I won each of the arguments, especially where he said it will go bankrupt in 3 years & I told him why it won't. He asked me as to what my target in 3 years. I suggested that it would double from Rs.15 & cross the 52 week high of Rs.29.
8.He laughed sarcastically & literally kicked me out.😒 Never argue with a client, more so a prospective one. He complained bitterly to my mentor😬. Most of my friends who were cursing me for selling them a lemon bailed out 9 months later b/w 18- 22.
9. And in the first instance they had all agreed to wait for 3 years.🙃 . This was what happened 3 years later. MY BIGGEST REGRET.👇
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I won't be surprised if the same thing happens to ITC. But this time, I am NOT advising anyone to buy ITC😷

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More from @sainik636

12 Sep
@Jai_hyderabad @vka27 . A thread on Health & Sport. "If I can do it, anyone can do it ". Just like the Stock Markets. Running a Marathon requires the same kind of skill sets as Investing in the Stock Market. Here I am just describing my Running Experience (1/n)
2. In early 2015, when I was around 54 years, the running bug bit me when I saw a friend of mine running on the Marina Beach. He introduced me to Marina Minnals one of the many running groups which are based out of Chennai.
3. In College I was into Sports, mainly short sprints having represented college in various Inter-Collegiate Meets, but anything above 400 m was Hell for me. In 2015 my Running group friends helped me to navigate Hell.
Read 12 tweets
6 Sep
1.“The Dog that Didn’t Bark”
Gregory: “Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?”
Holmes: “To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.”
Gregory: “The dog did nothing in the night-time.”
Holmes: “That was the curious incident.”
2.Since 2008, when FED started its QE there was a fear that the wall of Liquidity would lead to very high Inflation, bordering on Hyperinflation.
However, that did not happen flummoxed the best of the minds.
3. In the last one year due to COVID the concept of “HELICOPTER MONEY’ which was touted by Bernanke in the early 2000’s as one solution to take care of low growth. So how is Helicopter Money different from Quantitative Easing?.
Read 21 tweets
3 Sep
1. Time to validate what this 91 year old gentleman says :
2. My good friend @Prashanth_Krish supplied me this data on MF flows in the past
3. This I picked from Mint :
Read 6 tweets
1 Sep
1. ONE LONE VOICE ...... Q: If a tree falls in a forest, and there’s no one around to hear it, does it make a sound?🙄 Another "rant" in 10 parts.
2. Yesterday, I ranted through 25 Tweets on the current market conditions. Going by the response, the above question assumes relevance. Adding another edition today in the fond hope that some of you may find meaning in what I tried/trying to convey.
3.Had made my observations of the market here on WhatsApp & CH discussions that while its futile to "Catch a top" in terms of Numbers, it may be still a good idea to "time" the market in terms of ... well "Time"
Read 12 tweets
27 Aug
1.The MF Mafia's Motto : Mutual Fund Sahi Hain
2. MFs have convinced its target Audience through constantly repeating that they don't have KNOWLEDGE ; TIME, EXPERTISE & EXPERIENCE .
3. KNOWLEDGE : The typical target is a well educated, successful individual who is trying to explore alternative Investment Avenues other than traditional Bank FDs. He/she has investible surplus & has the capability of seeking knowledge easily during these times. Google, anyone ?
Read 27 tweets
26 Aug
1.A series on 'Bullshit Gyan" spouted by Market Gurus Here is the first one: " Its time in the market that counts, not timing". Think about it : If you do not time the market properly enough, then your time in the market is likely to be not profitable
2. Just imagine buying "Hot Stocks" like Brokerage ones just last month. All of them are down anywhere between 20 - 30 %. And the honchos of those esteemed brokerages would tell you that a return of 20 % is great in the Stock Market 🙄
3. Or look at "Hot Sectors" like Metals. They have not fared any better. They are overbought even at these levels. So much for Multi year Commodity Bull run nonsense spouted by Strategists.
Read 5 tweets

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