The Taliban do politics: "In the absence of a strong, on-the-ground leader, there have been indications of power struggles between different Ghilzai and Durrani leaders, eastern and southern networks, and hardliners and those looking for more flexibility" afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/war…
"it does not seem that anybody outside the Taleban’s circle is involved in any substantive discussions...There are no longer any indications that, even if they did happen, appointments [of Karzai/Abdullah/Hekmatyar] would be anything more than symbolic." afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/war…
Fascinating insight from a former Afghan security official: "We all feel the danger, especially those who served in different provinces. We don’t fear the leadership. We fear the ordinary people" afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/war…
"What is clear from detailed reports we have received is that many of the people in hiding are doing so because of specific, targeted, personalised threats. Several ... commented on the depth of knowledge & ... detail that the teams searching for them had" afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/war…
From phoney to real war in the Panjshir. "Whereas both sides mainly seemed to be trying to hurt each other in order to strengthen their hand in negotiations, without starting an all-out battle ... the Taleban are now summoning forces from other provinces." afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/war…
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AP, from Kabul. "There are few signs of the draconian restrictions the Taliban imposed last time they were in power ... Women are out on the streets wearing Islamic headscarves ... rather than the all-encompassing burqa the Taliban required in the past." apnews.com/article/kabul-…
"When the Taliban last ruled the country, from 1996 to 2001, they banned television, music and even photography, but there’s no sign of that yet. TV stations are still operating normally and the Taliban fighters themselves can be seen taking selfies" apnews.com/article/kabul-…
"On Tuesday, the sound of dance music trickled out of an upscale wedding hall in Kabul, where a celebration was in full swing inside. Shadab Azimi, the 26-year-old manager, said at least seven wedding parties had been held since the Taliban takeover" apnews.com/article/kabul-…
Afghanistan's land borders are going to get busier. "large numbers of people trying to flee Afghanistan have been gathering daily near Spin Boldak-Chaman, the only designated — and open — border crossing for refugees [into Pakistan]" nytimes.com/live/2021/08/2…
"About 4,000 to 8,000 people cross the border there each day in typical times. Since the Taliban seized Kabul, the number of Afghans entering Pakistan has jumped threefold, according to Pakistani officials and tribal leaders." nytimes.com/live/2021/08/2…
"An official ... said that the Pakistan government was currently allowing only Pakistani citizens, Afghans seeking medical treatment and people with proof of a right to refuge. No official statistics about how many people recently entered...are available." nytimes.com/live/2021/08/2…
Taliban paved way for surrenders "early last year". Deals "often described...as cease-fires, but Taliban leaders were in fact offering money in exchange for government forces to hand over their weapons, according to an Afghan officer and a U.S. official." washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/…
"Over the next year and a half, the meetings advanced to the district level and then rapidly on to provincial capitals, culminating in a breathtaking series of negotiated surrenders by government forces" washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/…
'...“Some just wanted the money,” an Afghan special forces officer said ...But others saw the US commitment to a full withdrawal as an “assurance” that the militants would return to power in Afghanistan and wanted to secure their place on the winning side' washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/…
Important point from @mvbijlert. US withdrawal a pivotal moment, but not only factor: Taliban advance "an acceleration of the existing state of affairs in large parts of the country...the country did not go from relative stability to utter chaos overnight" afghan-analysts.org/en/reports/war…
The Taliban's own 77 Brigade. "The Taleban appear to have media teams accompanying their fighters as they take control of the cities or, at the very least, an intentional media engagement strategy." afghan-analysts.org/en/reports/war…
"Ironically, they [the US] are now hastily flying in 3000 soldiers to support an evacuation, which may, in turn, disrupt commercial flights and complicate the possibility for others to leave." afghan-analysts.org/en/reports/war…
Just yesterday UK said it was moving embassy to safer place in Kabul. Now seems as if @laurie_bristow & others being evacuated. "Senior gov't sources said UK would evacuate its ambassador and staff, and would no longer maintain an embassy outpost there" thetimes.co.uk/article/briton…
Yeah, Turkey is not going to be running Kabul airport, is it. "The rapidity of the Taliban advance appeared to spook Whitehall officials ... a senior source warning: “The fear is the airport will not hold for more than a few days.”...' thetimes.co.uk/article/briton…
UK official: "The SAS trained the Afghan special forces and MI6 has hundreds of allies across the local intelligence agencies. They want these people brought out and offering them sanctuary could be the key ensuring the evacuation runs smoothly..." thetimes.co.uk/article/briton…
Clear emergence of two perspectives on Af'stan: 1) US couldve stayed at low cost, maintaining stalemate. 2) Taliban were making gains even w/ intensifying US airpower; Afghan troops/state were showing no sign of improvement. Sympathetic to (1) but ultimately more persuaded by (2)
US presence in Af'stan post-2018/19 was not especially high cost. And it enabled a substantial NATO training mission. But equally the pre-Doha-deal, pre-withdrawal status quo was not a steady state. The choice was probably, eventually, going to be between escalation & withdrawal.
Whatever rights/wrongs of withdrawal, am also sceptical it undermines US credibility in Asia. Yes, a humiliation. But everyone knows US left not because it lacked capacity to stay, but domestic politics shifted, surges didn't break deadlock & AFG became peripheral to US interests