Thread by @BambroughKevin

Bull market and trading psychology thoughts to end the week:

I’m getting a lot of people asking me about profit taking and how to trade the uranium market so I thought I’d offer some insights into what I learned back in the late 90’s dot.com boom as a daytrader

I quit my IT consulting work and decided to become a full time independent trader in the late 90’s. Worked out of a Toronto based day trading office and saw a lot of people come and go over a couple of wild volatile mostly bull market years.

At the peak 400+ traders on a big open trading floor and their backgrounds varied from construction, tech, dr’s, real estate, entrepreneurial types, lawyers but generally people with above average incomes and success prior to trading that gave them the funds to go fulltime

It proved to be way more difficult to succeed than nearly everyone expected. 98 percent of people blew themselves out and gave up in 6months or less. Out of the rest half made it another year or so. A few 2 years than burnt out and decide other work was easier

Only a handful of people out of many many hundreds continued trading fulltime successfully.

Emotional discipline combined with work ethic and insight made the difference. Having a plan and sticking to it and most importantly understanding your habits and developing a style

There are many styles that I observed over that time and again learned about during my future decade on Bay St. I often debate writing a book about it but I’m a bit lazy to be honest…

Anyhow. Back to the bull market thoughts. They call it a bull market cause to succeed you need to hold on like hell and survive riding like a bull rider in a rodeo. Many people just can’t find a style that works for them and they can stick with to succeed in these markets

Just as surviving the bear is crazy challenging. Even more deadly.

When I think of my style and how I’m wired I know that I first of all must get in early and get my price cause I’m nervous of buying stocks that have had sharp runs already. I get upset and shaken out to easy

When I don’t get a ‘good price’ or ‘my price’ as an entry point I’m nervous of losses coming. Buy less than I should. Take profits too quick and if it drops I can be shaken out too easily.

I also learned that if I get in really early and have a big 2x or 3x gain fairly quickly I really desire to take a profit.

But over the years I’ve too oftener learned that if I take that profit I’m just incapable of successful reenterjng a volatile stock

Especially if it’s up huge still from my original entry point. I just often have struggled to get back on that bull once I got off. Emotionally it’s very challenging. But I also learned the hard way that I was particularly good at calling bull markets early and suffered…

The pain of being right but out of the game and unable to get back in. Watching stocks I own go up 10x more with out me. Happened in many tech stocks. Some silvers. Coppers. Etc. Even some coal stocks like that fucking BTU that got away from me this summer

So here’s my analogy to help it sink in.

For me, much like a bull rider, it’s not so scary to get on a bull when it’s in the gates and barely moving. You can quietly get on with relative safety and strap in.

Just like early boring dead ends of a bear as the bull is starting. Stocks are smashed and low vol and easy to slow accumulate at ‘my price’ over a few weeks etc.

But.. then the gate opens and the ride starts. I’ve learned that I must stay on or it’s over for me

It’s like a bull rider jumping off a raging bull. All of a sudden when you own firm ground you simply must run like hell away from it.

You know if your try to get back on that bull I might gore you with it’s horns or kick your fucking teeth out with its hooves and trample you

I learned that I don’t have the ability / guts to successfully get back on the bull so I must just try to lock in the best ride I can from gate to finish. Eric Sprott helped with also understanding that the best way to stick with a bull is to work hard and follow it closely

@quakes99 is a good example of this. I never asked him but I’m sure he follows it cause he’s good a decent chunk of his portfolio invested and feels like he needs to keep informed as best possible to stay long the trade and ultimately exit at or around the correct time

So, in summary. I posted this for my friends and new acquaintances… you need to decide what your style is. Don’t ask me when you should sell. We’ve had a great run. You do you.

My plan is try to say long and see us test the inflation adjusted highs. At least take out $150/lb

I may sell some at $90/lb, $140 and then 80-90% out at $200. Things can also change and I could stay long all the way to a blow out or perhaps it’s clear supply can ramp up ahead of demand at some point and I see better value in copper, gold and coal etc.

For now #uranium is the best looking market to me. That said. I bought back some golds I profit took on and added to my gbxj holdings this week.

Good luck to all and have a great weekend. Hoping next week we see the mid 40’s and I can’t wait to see what size ATM program SPUT will file for next. :)

Sorry for all the typos but I think I got my point across…