Thread/ $BABA recently announced a 100B RMB contribution to common prosperity in China. The equivalent of $15.5B (USD).

Here is a bit of a deeper look and the impact in may have on Alibaba…
1/ firstly, I want to clarify the wording that was used. The $15B would be “an investment in science and technology to support small and medium-sized companies to enter the global market, increase employment rates and help reduce inequality between urban and rural digital life”
2/ $BABA will spread the money between 10 initiatives over the next 4-5 years. Unlike $TCEHY who did not give a time frame on their contribution, Alibaba have an end date of 2025. Both of the tech giants pledged the same ~$15.5B amount.
3/ At first glance such a large $ amount seems concerning. Although after considering it a bit more I think it’s impact will be minimal. It’s equal to ~30% of cash on the balance sheet or ~50% of net cash..
4/ Assuming the cash balance grows even half the rate it has in the past it’s about ~25% of FY25 net cash position. Not to mention this is worded as an investment. There is a possibility of a return on this $15B. Even if it’s a low ROI.
5/ Even if it is structured more like a donation with no ROI, it will be directed towards future customers that will enter the $BABA ecosystem. At the bare minimum it is a positive for the Alibaba brand image.
6/ The contribution on an annual basis is approx. $3B which is ~11% of FY21 free cash flow. If FCF grows at 15% that $3B in FY25 is just 6%. It’s certainly not insignificant, but the average tech company stock based comp dilutes more. $BABA will be buying back shares instead.
7/ Overall, this could be what it takes to calm the tension between China big tech and the CCP. Perhaps we see an improvement in market sentiment going forward.

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More from @frankinvesting

14 Sep
Thread/ $HIFS - A high quality, small-cap bank with exceptional management.

1/ Hingham Institution for Savings was founded in 1834 as a mutual savings bank in Boston, Massachusetts. It eventually listed in 1988.
2/ $HIFS currently have 11 locations, 8 of which are in the South Shore of Massachusetts. The have also recently expanded into Washington D.C in which management recognise as a similar market and a growth opportunity.
3/ Currently $HIFS has a market cap of $680M. Since 1993 when the Gaughen family took full control of the bank, the stock has returned 100-1 for shareholders. Pretty impressive considering how small the company still is.
Read 14 tweets
13 Sep
Thread/ $BABA news on the CCP breaking up Alipay lending business.

1/ The media and fintwit are again jumping on the news and pushing an overly negative spin on the impact of the CCP breaking up the Ant Group’s credit/lending business.
2/ it was announced that the CCP plans to break up Ant Group's Alipay and create a separate app for the loans business, the Financial Times reported.
3/ The plan will also result in Ant turning over the user data that underpins lending decisions to a new credit scoring joint-venture that will be partly state-owned.
Read 16 tweets
10 Sep
Short thread/ $BABA future returns

$BABA returns on incremental invested capital (ROIIC) over past 9yrs is ~18%. Over the past 3yrs it was ~19%. Reinvestment rate over the same time periods was 130% & 102%. That has lead to intrinsic value compounding of 23% & 19% respectively
1/ With Alibaba Cloud requiring a lot of capital and just beginning to approach profitability, I have no reason to believe $BABA won't maintain a similar reinvestment rate & returns over the next 5 years..
2/ The core commerce business will continue to be extremely profitable and produce strong cash flows & returns for the business. I think it's hard to argue otherwise, regardless of any upcoming government crackdowns & interventions.
Read 6 tweets
7 Sep
Thread/ $BABA & the value Alibaba Cloud

Alibaba cloud is arguably the most bullish aspect of the $BABA thesis even though it’s <10% of FY21 total revenues and not yet profitable. Currently they have ~40% of cloud market share in China.
1/ The cloud market in China is only in early stages of development. They are approximately 5-6 years behind the US if they can replicate the same growth trends that a company like $AMZN has been able to achieve with AWS.
2/ the US and Chinese cloud market is very different and not a perfect comparison. But $AMZN & $BABA are the dominant players in each market so I will make some comparisons throughout the thread.
Read 12 tweets
5 Sep
Thread/ the Israeli micro-cap version of $V & $MA

$SHVA operates payments systems for debit cards and mobile payments (Apple & Google pay) in Israel. If it traded on any major exchange would likely be >2x the current price.
1/ first note is that $V & $MA are not competition. They don’t compete in the market and actually own ~10% of $SHVA shares each. The company was founded by Israeli banks.
2/ Shares are very illiquid. Large share holders such as the banks, Visa & MasterCard own ~60% of the company. The illiquidity is the main reason the company trades and such low multiples. Trading on Tel Aviv stock exchange doesn’t help either.
Read 6 tweets
3 Sep
Thread/ My Portfolio.

As of May, 2020 I decided to switch from index investing into stock picking with the hopes of out performing the market.

Cumulative return - 70%
YTD return - 22%

s&p500 since May, 2020 - 55%
s&p500 YTD - 23%
1/ I have outperformed the s&p500 since inception by 1500bps and YTD I am lagging by just 100bps.

Usually I benchmark against $VDHG which is a globally diversified ETF in Aus. However the S&P500 has performed better and I thought it would be a better comparison for fintwit..
2/ My current portfolio:
$KPG, $BABA, $TECHY, $PROSY, $AFL, $OTW, $TWTR Image
Read 8 tweets

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