Thread by @ASlavitt

COVID Update: Over the long term the US could be among the countries with the highest cases, greatest risks of outbreaks, and largest home to new variants.

With people refusing vaccinations here, the globe is lapping the US very quickly.

1/

We’ve now given out 5.4 billion shots across the globe.

45 countries, almost all of whom began well after the US, have now fully vaccinated more of their population than the US. 2/

Our low vaccination rates relative to the globe has put the US up there with 3-4 mostly unvaxxed nations as a leading hot spot.

And because of our lower vaccination rate, unlike other early vaccinated countries like Israel & the UK, US death rates are 2-3x higher. 3/

Countries which have been notably lagging behind in much of the world are vaccinating quickly.

India, which was plagued with low access to vaccines has now given a first shot to more than half the population. Japan now has 58%. Australia 50%. Brazil 2/3.

4/

We’re giving a billion shots a month around the globe. And from all of this effort global cases are now declining. 5/

But 90 countries, most in Africa, S America, or South Asia have fewer than 40% of their populations with a single dose. 40 of those are under 10%. 3 have not even begun.

None these countries is in the top half of global wealth. 6/

We are producing a billion doses/month now and COVAX has promised that 2 billion will be delivered to poor countries by the end of the year.

The math suggests we have more than enough vaccines to vaccinate 70% of the globe with at least a 1st shot in a manner of months. 7/

But there are big challenges. The challenge doesn’t lie in producing enough vaccines. It lies in the hardest part— the infrastructure, distribution, cold storage & supplies to vaccinate many of the poorer countries. 8/

The global pace of vaccinations will decrease as soon as the middle income countries get through their vaccinations in major urban centers— unless these infrastructure issues are resolved.

Rural & remote areas and poor countries require mobilization of resources now. 9/

PEPFAR infrastructure (used for AIDS 2 decades ago), childhood vax infrastructure, tens of 1000s of UN/G7 troops all must be quickly mobilized.

The UN and G20 must put aside differences and make this the priority. The IMF must ensure funds are used for these purposes alone. 10/

September is the month when the coordination, resources, supply chain production & financing must get worked out. 11/

I talked to several scientists, including Dr. Fauci who will be on @inthebubblepod next week, who believe that with a booster shot, it is very likely that vaccinated people will no longer be able to be contagious. 12/

But even when the US provides boosters, take up rates are expected to be low. Even lower than the already sadly low vaccination rates. 13/

Between global vaccinations, expanded vaccinations in the US, and boosters, we have the tools to reduce COVID-19 significantly & minimize the risk of other variants.

But of those, the work in the US, while less complicated technically, may be the most problematic. 14/

Belief in science, support for working people, uniting for a common cause, and a unified governing system are ingredients for higher vaccination take up.

The US failure here portends the risk of variants & outbreaks. 15/

With commitment, global equity & infrastructure issues can be overcome. And it needs to happen fast.

And as they are, more & more countries will pass the US on vaccination levels. Our issues may be harder. And the US (& the world) will pay a price for them. /end