COVID Update: Over the long term the US could be among the countries with the highest cases, greatest risks of outbreaks, and largest home to new variants.

With people refusing vaccinations here, the globe is lapping the US very quickly.

We’ve now given out 5.4 billion shots across the globe.

45 countries, almost all of whom began well after the US, have now fully vaccinated more of their population than the US. 2/
Our low vaccination rates relative to the globe has put the US up there with 3-4 mostly unvaxxed nations as a leading hot spot.

And because of our lower vaccination rate, unlike other early vaccinated countries like Israel & the UK, US death rates are 2-3x higher. 3/
Countries which have been notably lagging behind in much of the world are vaccinating quickly.

India, which was plagued with low access to vaccines has now given a first shot to more than half the population. Japan now has 58%. Australia 50%. Brazil 2/3.

We’re giving a billion shots a month around the globe. And from all of this effort global cases are now declining. 5/
But 90 countries, most in Africa, S America, or South Asia have fewer than 40% of their populations with a single dose. 40 of those are under 10%. 3 have not even begun.

None these countries is in the top half of global wealth. 6/
We are producing a billion doses/month now and COVAX has promised that 2 billion will be delivered to poor countries by the end of the year.

The math suggests we have more than enough vaccines to vaccinate 70% of the globe with at least a 1st shot in a manner of months. 7/
But there are big challenges. The challenge doesn’t lie in producing enough vaccines. It lies in the hardest part— the infrastructure, distribution, cold storage & supplies to vaccinate many of the poorer countries. 8/
The global pace of vaccinations will decrease as soon as the middle income countries get through their vaccinations in major urban centers— unless these infrastructure issues are resolved.

Rural & remote areas and poor countries require mobilization of resources now. 9/
PEPFAR infrastructure (used for AIDS 2 decades ago), childhood vax infrastructure, tens of 1000s of UN/G7 troops all must be quickly mobilized.

The UN and G20 must put aside differences and make this the priority. The IMF must ensure funds are used for these purposes alone. 10/
September is the month when the coordination, resources, supply chain production & financing must get worked out. 11/
I talked to several scientists, including Dr. Fauci who will be on @inthebubblepod next week, who believe that with a booster shot, it is very likely that vaccinated people will no longer be able to be contagious. 12/
But even when the US provides boosters, take up rates are expected to be low. Even lower than the already sadly low vaccination rates. 13/
Between global vaccinations, expanded vaccinations in the US, and boosters, we have the tools to reduce COVID-19 significantly & minimize the risk of other variants.

But of those, the work in the US, while less complicated technically, may be the most problematic. 14/
Belief in science, support for working people, uniting for a common cause, and a unified governing system are ingredients for higher vaccination take up.

The US failure here portends the risk of variants & outbreaks. 15/
With commitment, global equity & infrastructure issues can be overcome. And it needs to happen fast.

And as they are, more & more countries will pass the US on vaccination levels. Our issues may be harder. And the US (& the world) will pay a price for them. /end

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Andy Slavitt 🇺🇸💉

Andy Slavitt 🇺🇸💉 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ASlavitt

15 Sep
COVID Update: There is an amazing array of efforts, some not very visible, to tackle COVID.

If you want to know how COVID plays out, the variables are here. But there’s the fatal flaw: us. 1/
I can try to classify many of the efforts to address COVID as now (high impact progress we are working on now), med term (things underway but not immediate), and long term (potential big game changers). 2/
The now items are critical to saving lives today & reducing the odds of future variants.

Number one on that list is to vaccinate the majority of the globe by the first quarter. 3/
Read 25 tweets
14 Sep
COVID Update: With requirements rolling across the country, I called a company that implemented vaccine requirements last month.

Here is the experience & lessons for the rest of us. 1/
Background first. The company is based in the Midwest with 6000 people.

The workforce has salaried, factory workers and service center workers.

Their starting point was 70% of the staff vaccinated.

The CEO announced that by 10/1 everyone needed to be vaccinated. 2/
The first reaction was a 10% reduction in their employee satisfaction surveys— the first reduction in the history of the company.

Some people were quite upset. So the CEO began to try to understand people’s reasons for being unvaccinated & their objections. 3/
Read 24 tweets
12 Sep
This chart is interesting.
What it says is that Delta is spreading within households (that’s what Secondary Attack Rate means) at the same level as peak flu season.
Note the increase over last September.

It implies at least 3 things we should try to understand better. 1/
First, kids are getting COVID at school and infecting family members.

Policies preventing schools from protecting kids are failing the entire family including seriously at risk adults. 2/
Second, household infections are going to grow over the Fall and early Winter without more layered interventions. 3/
Read 4 tweets
12 Sep
COVID Update: Watching the reactions & meltdowns to the proposal that Americans are required to get vaccinated (or tested) to be around others.

There is so little actually controversial here but the sideshow is first rate. 1/
Real people by large majorities support vaccine requirements. We’ve had them for decades, even centuries with little controversy.

No governor has threatened to light himself on fire & blow himself up (until now). 2/
Like traffic lights, as inconvenient as they sometimes are, people are pretty ok with rules if they do things like keep kids safe, reduce deaths, and allow businesses to be open safely. 3/
Read 20 tweets
9 Sep
COVID Update: After recent FDA approval, society is moving towards, requiring vaccines at a rapid pace.

And that’s about to get another jolt. 1/
Over 5.5 billion vaccines have been administered around the world. Think about this from a safety standpoint. Rare things happen when they occur a few times per MILLION. So we’ve seen it all.

At this point the safety record would have to be called impeccable. 2/
Over 5.5 billion shots, given to people of all ages & health, you would expect everything to occur. Yet there are only very modest & rare adverse events.

Even anti-vax strategies seem to acknowledge this reality. 3/
Read 20 tweets
7 Sep
COVID Update: How big a problem will future variants be?

I got an update from several top scientists. 1/
Quick review. Viruses continually mutate but can only mutate when they replicate. And so far we’re giving SARS-CoV-2 plenty of opportunities to replicate. 2/
Most mutations aren’t worth noting. They don’t increase hospitalizations. They don’t increase infectiousness. And they don’t cause problems for prior immunity. 3/
Read 26 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!