Long DD Thread...

The threshold securities list has proven to become a very lucrative method of picking short squeeze candidates. Combining my short exempt theory with threshold stocks has yielded three picks which show immense squeeze potential due to the FTDs against them.
For those who don't know...
Threshold securities are stocks with more that 0.5% of its outstanding shares in Failures-to-deliver (FTDs)

FTDs are a symptom of naked shorting, as well as institutions who fail to deliver in-the-money call options or lent shares that were recalled
Short exempts are a special tool of market makers (MMs) to take a short while a stock is on Short-sale restriction (SSR) or to short without locating a share to borrow.

These exemptions are intended for MMs to survive periods of massive volatility and frenzy buying.
However, recently some apes such as myself have identified that short exempts can and have been liberally abused to short stocks without requiring a locate, allowing MMs to drive massive downward pressure on stocks during SSR and to avoid borrowing while making the market.
In situations where MMs are short a stock, they can use exempts to take the other side of retail buy orders to satisfy the trade without having to find another seller. It is massively profitable for them because they can dictate the price on the spread while doing this.
Meanwhile, short MMs can accumulate shares to borrow for later, allowing them to drive the price down during a sell off. Then, they buy back the stock at a discount and deliver on the FTDs created by all the short exempts they made.

But...

What if the stock doesn't sell off???
You see, every short exempt that was taken without a borrow automatically becomes an FTD because technically it is a naked short. And MMs are only given 6 trading days to settle FTDs.

If they don't, they are forcefully restricted from shorting the stock, halting their trading.
This cuts massively into their profits, so MMs are forced into a prisoner's dilemma of buying back the shares they failed to locate in order to close the FTDs.

This would naturally go against their trading strategy because their net position is short on the stock they must buy.
Add on top of this, the market maker sold a massive number of call options on that stock which would run in the money, forcing them to delta hedge those positions... by buying more stock...
MMs get around this problem and kick the can down the road for a while by borrowing more shares. This is possible because, according to RegSho, you can close FTDs by borrowing shares, but this only lasts so long because eventually these shares run dry as utilization rises to 100%
Oh but it gets worse for them...

If a stock is on the threshold list and stays there for more than 13 consecutive days...

At any time, regulators are able to force the closure of any existing short positions on that stock.

The MM is then forced to buy to cover their shorts...
Well, guess what ladies and gentlemen, you already saw it happen with $GME, $AMC, and most recently with $SPRT.

NOW $BBIG and $ANY are both on the table, with the former closest to squeezing.
$SPRT kicked things off with a massive gamma squeeze following a run up to $8 from its average of $2.50 all year. Shorts underwater were desperate to continue shorting in order to average down their position and put selling pressure on the stock.

It didn't work...
On 8/20, $SPRT calls below $8 expired ITM, forcing a buying frenzy. On 8/23 $SPRT gapped up past $9, putting enough call options ITM to exceed their entire float.

Any org selling calls, when they are assigned, would be forced by 9/17 to deliver more shares than exists.
What followed was a pure gamma squeeze, rendering MMs helpless but to buy shares at such a rapid pace as to force the price to skyrocket past $59 by that Friday before a sell of saw it settle around $26.

But $SPRT isn't done because shorts still haven't covered.

Proof:
There is a pattern that I identified where $SPRT had a huge run up leading to it's 21st day on the Threshold list (8/20), but it was rapidly shorted down just before that Friday in order to push expiring options out-the-money (OTM).

The following Monday however...was too much
Now we come to $BBIG, which has been on threshold since 8/3, making this 24 days on the list as of Friday.

We saw yet another massive push to shove the price down and to try to shake out any paper hands.

Again, we saw an end-of-day rebound for $BBIG after shorts piled on.
$BBIG shorts are at over 300% losses on their positions, and now, once again, a massive portion of the float is ITM on the call options chain. Shit is about to go down...
I'm not setting dates, I'm not a financial wizard, and I'm not a fortune teller. I'm just a computer geek that knows how to use a calculator.

The math is fucking clear.

Shorts are are in deep shit
They can't cover without buying
There are no shorts to borrow
& no shares to buy
On Sept 10th, $BBIG will be finalizing its proxy vote, per their CEO during their latest earnings call.

This proxy will finalize the long awaited merger that has been the catalyst driving $BBIG's price action.

In mere days, this catalyst will FINALLY be realized.
I predicted on May 25th $AMC's gamma squeeze the following week.
I predicted $SENS's gamma squeeze on June 3rd 3 weeks prior.
I predicted $SPRT's gamma squeeze on August 12th before the end of the month.
Now I'm predicting $BBIG's gamma squeeze before the end of September.
You don't have to believe me, but I'm not shilling, I'm not bull shitting, and I'm not fucking leaving.

I'm here to make the market work for me, and I'm here to watch some hedge fund portfolios burn.

Do whatever you want to, but I know what I'm doing tomorrow...

I'm ALL in.

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More from @TRUExDEMON

10 Sep
@earvinburnin Sorry that I don't have better screenshots from that time. Back when I was talking about SPRT, I pointed out its call options chain had, combined from $0.50 to $12 strike for 9/17 expiration, a grand total of 200k calls ITM. Back then, this was more than the entire float.
@earvinburnin This doesn't mean that $BBIG can't squeeze, but it does mean that $SPRT's squeeze was tremendously rare. I've never seen a company's entire float ITM in calls before.

Right now $BBIG has 20% of its float ITM right now with another 20% above $12.
@earvinburnin But there is something you should know. More calls were bought in a single week when $SPRT was trading at $12 than in the past 3 months.

Over 100k of those calls were bought only days before it squeezed.

The same thing can happen here if Market Makers are dumb enough twice.
Read 4 tweets
10 Sep
By popular request, here is my research on $ATER short squeeze play per my usual thesis.

Here's the short version... by the numbers, shorts are just now starting to realize... they fucked up.
Ortex data shows shorts got in around Aug 1st @ $9.15 or less (at best)

FTD spikes since then have been consistently happening every T+6 days (sign that market makers are involved)

Institutions piling in.
SI: 68% of FF
19% of FF is ITM in calls
Looks good!
The one piece missing is the short exempts. Short Exempt volume is hovering around 1.5% of short volume, but it's going to likely start showing up soon, if market makers have FTDs outstanding.

Doesn't mean it won't squeeze without the short-exempts going nuts, but I'd like more.
Read 4 tweets
9 Sep
I wanted to give an update on my opinion of $SPRT because I'm getting asked quite a bit.

NFA...

I am still bullish on $SPRT, but at the moment, it's in a consolidation period. The SI of FF is over 86%, and the average short got in around ~$7.15.

They are at a 224% loss.
The problem we currently have is that market makers hedged and either delivered or bought-to-close their ITM options on the chain during the run up when everyone sold their ITM options. The 9/17 call chain only has about 6K calls ITM right now, so not much gamma anymore.
10/15 looks more interesting with 36,232 calls expiring ITM above $23. That's still 18% of the float.

Between the 86% SI and 20% of the float ITM between now and 10/15, $SPRT is still in a supply crisis, and I believe failures to deliver will be astronomical in the coming weeks.
Read 11 tweets

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