By popular request, here is my research on $ATER short squeeze play per my usual thesis.

Here's the short version... by the numbers, shorts are just now starting to realize... they fucked up.
Ortex data shows shorts got in around Aug 1st @ $9.15 or less (at best)

FTD spikes since then have been consistently happening every T+6 days (sign that market makers are involved)

Institutions piling in.
SI: 68% of FF
19% of FF is ITM in calls
Looks good!
The one piece missing is the short exempts. Short Exempt volume is hovering around 1.5% of short volume, but it's going to likely start showing up soon, if market makers have FTDs outstanding.

Doesn't mean it won't squeeze without the short-exempts going nuts, but I'd like more.
At the moment, it looks like $ATER has some bullish news around the corner, but this might just be its first run. More data is needed. I don't have a position right now.

As always, do your own DD and make your own financial decisions.

Good luck!

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with True Demon

True Demon Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @TRUExDEMON

10 Sep
@earvinburnin Sorry that I don't have better screenshots from that time. Back when I was talking about SPRT, I pointed out its call options chain had, combined from $0.50 to $12 strike for 9/17 expiration, a grand total of 200k calls ITM. Back then, this was more than the entire float.
@earvinburnin This doesn't mean that $BBIG can't squeeze, but it does mean that $SPRT's squeeze was tremendously rare. I've never seen a company's entire float ITM in calls before.

Right now $BBIG has 20% of its float ITM right now with another 20% above $12.
@earvinburnin But there is something you should know. More calls were bought in a single week when $SPRT was trading at $12 than in the past 3 months.

Over 100k of those calls were bought only days before it squeezed.

The same thing can happen here if Market Makers are dumb enough twice.
Read 4 tweets
9 Sep
I wanted to give an update on my opinion of $SPRT because I'm getting asked quite a bit.

NFA...

I am still bullish on $SPRT, but at the moment, it's in a consolidation period. The SI of FF is over 86%, and the average short got in around ~$7.15.

They are at a 224% loss.
The problem we currently have is that market makers hedged and either delivered or bought-to-close their ITM options on the chain during the run up when everyone sold their ITM options. The 9/17 call chain only has about 6K calls ITM right now, so not much gamma anymore.
10/15 looks more interesting with 36,232 calls expiring ITM above $23. That's still 18% of the float.

Between the 86% SI and 20% of the float ITM between now and 10/15, $SPRT is still in a supply crisis, and I believe failures to deliver will be astronomical in the coming weeks.
Read 11 tweets
5 Sep
Long DD Thread...

The threshold securities list has proven to become a very lucrative method of picking short squeeze candidates. Combining my short exempt theory with threshold stocks has yielded three picks which show immense squeeze potential due to the FTDs against them.
For those who don't know...
Threshold securities are stocks with more that 0.5% of its outstanding shares in Failures-to-deliver (FTDs)

FTDs are a symptom of naked shorting, as well as institutions who fail to deliver in-the-money call options or lent shares that were recalled
Short exempts are a special tool of market makers (MMs) to take a short while a stock is on Short-sale restriction (SSR) or to short without locating a share to borrow.

These exemptions are intended for MMs to survive periods of massive volatility and frenzy buying.
Read 22 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(