How is it that 18m after the first mRNA vaccine was developed we still don’t have an approved vaccine for kids?
This will be one of the greatest preventable public health failures in history, and it is happening in real time right before our eyes
What can we do? Some ideas: Image
The stakes are massive; cases in children in the US are rising exponentially. Given how infectious Delta is, and the lack of mitigations in most schools, we can expect many, perhaps most, children to be infected in the next few months. aap.org/en/pages/2019-… Image
And it must be emphasized, as seen above, children can get seriously ill from this virus; 1/100 will need hospital admission, 1/10000 will die. 24 died in the US last week out of 200k new infections
1/50 will get Long Covid:
covid.joinzoe.com/post/long-covi…
In June the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products committee (VRBPAC) met and asked vaccine makers to expand trial sizes. A lot of concern was raised about the risk of myocarditis. Full meeting is here. It's 7h but very interesting to watch:
Key was the role of Dr Cory Meissner, who argued that case counts were low, and that this wasn’t a serious disease in children. What’s more curious is Meissner’s role in anti-mask advocacy, including this editorial in WSJ. Some quotes from the meeting:
wsj.com/articles/masks… ImageImage
Meissner is a prominent signatory to the Great Barrington Declaration (GBD), which many right-leaning and libertarian physicians support, but has been roundly criticized by most others
usnews.com/news/healthies…. Image
It’s fair to say that these views are not supported by the majority of the medical community, and viewpoints held by supporters of the GBD, against mask-wearing, lockdowns, airborne spread, protecting children, etc. have been proven wrong repeatedly throughout the pandemic Image
I bring up ideology in what should be a medical discussion because it pops up in the UK as well.
The JCVI in the UK has not even recommended for 12-15 year olds, and has enormous errors in analysis:
When you look deeper at the data presented at the FDA, and in the ACIP meeting the following week
-Risk is primarily in adolescents
-80% of cases were after 2nd dose
-Myocarditis occurred within 1-6 days of any dose
ACIP meeting recording is here:
ImageImageImageImage
Indeed, in Israel the cost benefit analysis was seen in a more positive light and vaccinations for younger patients was approved. Children 5-11 with serious conditions are being vaccinated now: timesofisrael.com/no-major-side-… Image
Sadly the FDA asked for 6 more months of data, and to double the trial size for kids. Most committee members knew this would likely find little, This will put vaccine approvals far into the winter, rather than September as expected.raps.org/news-and-artic…
It is unfortunate that deliberations in Canada, Europe aren't as transparent, and it seems a lot is deferred to the FDA by every medical authority.
Going by meeting minutes, the EMA doesn’t seem to have discussed pediatric vaccines at all:
ema.europa.eu/en/committees/…
Obviously regulators have a heavy burden; they have to approve something that could go to millions of children. Rare side will manifest. But these trials are too small to pick up the rarest of conditions anyway, and almost all children are likely to contract Covid this year.
Regulators and drug makers face no liability for virus-related complications, for the kids who will end up in ICU with Covid, or those who will endure #LongCovid for years, so the urgency is less. Also, two key officials stepped down recently:
A modest proposal given the crisis we're facing:
Step 1: Release what data currently exists. Data is continuously being submitted by Pfizer and Moderna to the FDA, Health Canada, EMA and others. Time to open it up so we can all see if these vaccines are safe or not: Image
Step 2: Step-wise vaccinate younger and younger children. Already some children age 11 have been vaccinated in Ontario with few ill effects. Study carefully, look for myocarditis. Do cardiac MRIs to look for Late Gadolinium Enhancement. Halt if there's a safety signal. Image
Step 3: Skip second doses for now, where 80% of myocarditis cases happen. These can be given once more fulsome data is available. Image
We could save millions of children from the short and long-term effects of Covid, save the school year, and prevent side effects. There is a massive cost to inaction and inertia; we simply cannot defer and hope for the best at this point.. it is far too late for that now
I and many of my colleagues hesitate to pile on the tough job these regulatory bodies have; but we are facing a very real threat to an entire generation of children and must act and decide quickly.
Good example of a politician overruling an advisory body's wrong opinion on vaccines for children. All politicians will need to do the same to ensure children are protected. Too bad ours in Canada are paralyzed by the current federal election.
Time for us to follow the lead of Israel and Slovakia:

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More from @KashPrime

14 Sep
Really strong case for 3rd doses, especially for those over age 60:
This should be the biggest priority for decision makers in the coming weeks.
I'll go over why in this thread ->
Waning immunity is being observed in multiple studies, in elderly populations, and needs to be addressed. It's too bad our federal authorities are paralyzed by the election, a decision needs to be made soon.
Vaccine equity is an issue, but:
- the world is swiftly catching up
- Median age in Africa is 19.7 years, its 45+ in most Western countries, and death/ICU risk increases exponentially with age
Read 8 tweets
18 Aug
Listening to this phenomenal seminar by @kprather88 and others on what's at stake on the return of kids back to school this month.

@denise_dewald explains that the ICU system for kids if fragile and not designed for big shocks

Letting children get infected (and 1% of them will need hospitalization) will overwhelm this system quickly, and opens the prospect of triaging which child gets life-saving care.
@kprather88 explains that aerosol spread is the primary mode of spread of SARS2, and can float and linger in a room. Indoor spaces need to be filtered, masks need to be worn.
Read 16 tweets
18 Aug
Going through US data on children and Covid from @AmerAcadPeds is pretty alarming reading. Cases and hospitalizations are accelerating quickly.
aap.org/en/pages/2019-…
It looks like a pediatric hospitalization rate of 0.9% is consistent across 23 US states (Texas, Florida, Arkansas and many others are refusing to report this data)
If you extrapolate roughly from the rate of new pediatric cases every week, which is at 120K children last week (and accelerating), that's >1000 kids needing admission this week alone.
Read 5 tweets
17 Aug
Happy to see that teachers will be required to vaccinate (or get rapid tests). Ontario's plan is probably the best in the country now, but there's still some big gaps:
- Require masks from JK up
- Eliminate unmasked indoor activities
- Come up with a safe plan for lunch-time
Some great ideas on making lunch-time safer, especially when the weather gets colder:
Overall our children need a circle of protection around them. Vaccinated parents, teachers, rapid tests, ventilation upgrades. We have the resources and time to get this right.
Read 7 tweets
3 Aug
Here is a checklist you can show your local school administrators on protecting kids <12 before school starts. Will post supporting documents and explainers later this week, but we have no time to waste... we have a month to get this right.
The stakes are high. As @DanielGriffinMD likes to say, kids are at low risk, but they are not at no risk. Perhaps 1/25 will get long-term symptoms, 1/140 may need to be hospitalized, 1/3000 may develop MIS-C.
Read 5 tweets
13 Jul
If I had to summarize what I think are the most basic things to keep everyone safe and the economy humming, it boils down to these elements:

1) Keep public masking
2) Push vaccination rates higher
3) Vaccine requirements in sensitive areas like borders, hospitals, schools
Basic measures have kept us safe so far, and the results are dramatic; we are performing much better than many of our closest, and less careful, neighbours and allies. More can be done, but we should be proud of what we've accomplished.
And it builds on another idea, that we are very close to herd immunity, that we can eliminate circulation of this virus when enough are vaccinated. We have to hold the line until younger kids can get the vaccine this fall
Read 7 tweets

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