Time seems to tell about a new historical top! #Bitcoin
-Price starting from Halving:
Is it possible for this cycle to be the longest lasting?
It still has time if it repeats like 2016, as the previous cycle was longer compared to 2012.
Follow the Thread [6]👇👇
-Price from the breaking of the last ATH:
It is earlier than all cycles. The historical suggestion is that there is still enough time to make new corrections as well as new ATHs.
1/6 2011 occurred 4 corrections with an average duration of 80 days. These being between -40% to -55% depth.
2/6 2013 only a single correction of -75% depth, it took about 210 days to resume the last top. After a brief price rebound after the big dip, in 36 days it fell -50%, from here on it only recovered high again.
3/6 2017 occurred 3 price corrections, with an average duration of 35 days to resume the last top and trend continuation. The depth of the dips were between -30% to -40%.
4/6 It already currently went through a correction earlier this year and is now going through a second one that we can only really confirm after breaking the last top ($65,000). The corrections are between -30% to -55% depth. 👇
It took about 30 days to recover the first retracement, while the correction that is still in effect is 140 days from the last top.
5/6 There is a brief resemblance to the first cycle, although the corrections were more aggressive and in greater numbers.👇
If this cycle gets even more similar to 2011 in the pattern of corrections, there are still 2 corrections to contend with, suggesting new ATH.
Still also equal in the corrective aspect in quantity compared to 2017, as retracements were less aggressive in terms of percentage.
6/6 Looking from Halving, the top of 2011 and 2013 were faster, as 2017 took longer than all so far, this may be the case again. The current cycle is longer than all previous ones, including 2017.
The cycles are similar in the technical aspect and correction pattern.👇
The point is: The moments that occurred in the past have similarities to the present movements, the suggestion is that we still go higher!
In the current cycle, in 2021, price stopped at phase2 and did not realize phase3, besides realizing phase4 after phase1 and now being inside phase4 again.
$40.8k is the key to probability being in favor of a trend reversal (breaking $44.4k), currently the risk of breaking $37k still exists if $40.8k continues to be Resistance!
Below $37k the Bears are "forcing the bar", so this is the strategic point to be held by the Bulls for the accumulation structure ($60k-$30k) to remain bullish.
50% of the reference channel balances the strength of the armies (Bull vs. Bear).
The ratio MVRV is defined as the market capitalization of an asset divided by the realized capitalization. With this indicator it is possible to map the behavior in previous cycles and define the revenue of the current moment.
Thread👇👇
1. Ranking the phases of the cycles in sequence of 1-3 starting with NUMBER 1 after the start of the bull market and the top meeting in the middle of the bullish cycle.
2. There is a historical moment in the middle of the bull run, where it always looks like the end of the valuation, however it is just a short-term top in the middle of the bullish run. By hitting that top and offering the best buying moment within the bull market, 👇
3.5 channel breaks in 2013, reversal requires 4 total channel breaks, totaling 1 entire sub-cycle.
2.5 channel breaks in the correction we are currently in, much softer than 2013 even retracing -55% since the last top.
After testing in the Neutral Zone, retracement to the stealth point (50% of the REFERENCE CHANNEL) historically occurs.
This point is important as it is where market sentiment turned, as well as being the daily close of the first dip and also the bar close of the Monthly chart.
Breaking through sets up a new full move and hits $37k, at the stealth point of the price rebound.
It has only walked 0.5 of the move (the discount at 50% and at the PIVOT). This moment is crucial for the Bulls to advance above $44,400 and have a daily close.
If this does not happen, the full move must be completed.
The quick turn around after the dip to $40k has a high probability of being Short positions.
Interest at this time in opening short positions should increase as sentiment is in fear and speculators take advantage.