I have been provoked to start a webinar about progress in breast cancer care following the tragic early death of Sarah Harding as covered in the Times today. That together with the flood of tweets implying that delay in diagnosis was to blame./1
thetimes.co.uk/article/sarah-…
My mother died in her early 60s in uncontrolled pain from skeletal metastases. She had neglected herself and presented with advanced disease.I was a young surgeon at the time and decided to devote my career to the management of this disease. /2
27 years ago my beloved young sister noticed a small lump in her breast and I made sure that she was treated promptly with breast conserving surgery and 5 years adjuvant tamoxifen. I claim to be one of the pioneers responsible for these interventions./3
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_B…
I was also one of the architects of the NHS Breast Screening Programme and opened the first unit in the SE of England in 1988. Edwina Currie MP cut the ribbon and boasted about this achievement in parliament./4
theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=19…
Women who had negative findings on mammography were taught the correct way of Breast Self Examination (BSE) In the fullness of time we learnt the errors of our ways as the Cochrane overview of 3 large RCTs of BSE led to 2x negative biopsies and no impact on deaths from CaB/5
As the evidence built up that mammography screening was not delivering the promise of lives and breasts saved I resigned from the NHSBSP steering committee. This was vindicated by the Cochrane overview in 2006. The figure attached sums up the benefit v harms.
Sadly the belief that "catching it early" will save lives doesn't seem to work as we hoped. We must learn from our mistakes and not repeat them. What we can learn and how we can redirect breast cancer research demands a paradigm shift that I will address tomorrow.

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More from @MichaelBaum11

8 Sep
Screening revisited.
For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple and wrong. (H.L. Mencken, American Journalist 1880-1956)
Screening fails because it is based on a flawed assumption that the kinetics of growth are linear or log linear as illustrated here.
The logical inconsistencies in this model are multiple for example:
1. Recurrences can occur between 1-25 years with a peak hazard ratio at 2 years after surgery and a second wider peak 7-9 years.
2. The amplitude of the first peak reflects prognostic factors.
Read 8 tweets
25 Jul
The study of the growth of knowledge started in about 500BC in the Golden Age of Athens. The picture is a detail from Raphael's fresco in the Vatican. It shows Plato pointing to heaven as the source of wisdom whilst Aristotle makes the point that wisdom has to be acquired/1
Aristotle supported by Euclid, developed methodology that was the birth of scientific enquiry. It included syllogisms and "proofs" this may have had worked for algebra but failed to add to the sum of knowledge in cosmology or biology./2
In the dark ages the power of the Church decreed that all knowledge was given in the holy scriptures. Galileo like other scientists at the time. was at risk of death at the hands of the inquisition, his conjecture that the universe was heliocentric was considered heresy. /3
Read 11 tweets
9 May 20
"A plea also for left and right press; stop attacking the character and motivation of the people trying to help get UK out of this." @ewanbirney
Thank you Ewan, I'm glad someone at last has had the courage to make this comment. You have provoked a chain reaction response/1
I start with a disclaimer that I have no conflict of interest other than being pro Europe and having voted for Luciana Berger against the Tory sitting candidate.
I find it disgusting when armchair critics of HMG's response to this plague, question their motivation/2
I believe that all the ministers and scientists we see at press conferences are equally well motivated as any of the virtue signalling critics on Twitter who seek power without responsibility. The burden of responsibility of HMG must be back breaking./3
Read 9 tweets
13 Apr 20
I've been inspired to initiate a debate about the comparisons in outcomes between different countries in their efforts to deal with the corona virus pandemic, by this graph posted by James Barr./1
First my credentials. I founded the first cancer clinical trial's centre in the UK 1981 and directed it in various iterations for 30 years. I have no political affiliation and am driven by science. I'm an experimental clinical scientist not an epidemiologist. 2/
Epidemiology is observational science and is good at detecting associations between environmental and behavioural factors and links with disease. Association does not prove causation but is valuable in generating hypotheses to be tested in clinical trials (RCTs).3/
Read 10 tweets

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