Given COVID is now a largely vaccine-preventable disease

We can judge how well states are managing once vaccines became plentiful

So lets look at two big states: California and Florida

And see what we see in the data

In a nutshell, bad news for Floridians

So why compare FL and CA?

Two large states in southern half of US (less seasonal confounding), both with diverse populations

But with very different approaches

CA continues masking, testing, pushing vax

FL? Not so much

So how have people of CA and FL done?
We could examine cases but might be affected by testing (CA does more!)

So lets focus on deaths per capita

Here are daily deaths in CA, FL

They track closely from April through mid-July

Then, FL took off while CA rose slowly

Now, per capita, FL has 6 times daily deaths of CA Image
Another way to look at it is to examine cumulative deaths (per capita)

To answer: what proportion of people died after vaccines were widely available?

So here is the shocker:

Nearly 3 in 10 Floridians who has died of COVID19 -- died after April 1, 2021

Only 1 in 10 in CA Image
In fact, cumulatively, CA and FL had similar death rates until April 2021

The states then started separating

Now, cumulative deaths 30% higher (per capita) in FL than CA

Why these differences in deaths in CA vs FL?

Its not about vaccines: 56% of CA fully vaxxed vs 53% in FL
Instead, its abrogation of other public health measures

FL banning mask mandates and doing far less testing than CA


Because FL listening to @gbdeclaration "let it rip" clowns

Which has thus caused enormous, unnecessary suffering and deaths for people of Florida


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More from @ashishkjha

15 Sep
President Biden quoted @DLeonhardt

Suggesting daily risk of breakthrough infection among vaccinated folks about 1 in 5,000

Is that a lot?

Well, that would be 36,000 breakthrough infections daily

Seems bad!

So if you're vaccinated, should you worry?

Not really

Short thread
What does 36K infections mean in terms of hospitalizations, deaths?

Among UNvaccinated, about 1 in 20 infections lead to hospitalization and 1 in 200 lead to death

Vaccines cut risk of each by 90%

Which means daily, 180 vaccinated folks getting hospitalized and about 18 dying
Instead of IFR, what if we applied CFR?

That's 1.2% for unvaxxed, about 0.12% for vaxxed

Would mean 40 deaths a day

So how bad is 18 (or even 40) deaths a day?

After accounting for proportion of population vaccinated

Its lower than daily deaths in an avg flu season

Read 6 tweets
12 Sep
Quick update on the state of the pandemic in the US

The fourth wave has peaked and is turning down

The downturn is broad-based

What happens next is up to us

So lets start with where we are

Infections down about 10% from the peak

Deaths will turn around soon as well

Beyond the national picture, its always worth looking at the Big 4: CA, TX, FL, and NY

Together, about 1 in 3 Americans live here

And they are geographically and politically dispersed

So what do we see?

FL, CA turning down

NY flat

and TX rising, but slowly

All good
I often next go to @CovidActNow to quantify what we see

Their estimates of Rt -- infection rate

Here again, you see Rt <1 in FL, CA, at 1.0 in NY, and slightly above 1 in TX

Though PA and OH worry me

But overall Rt <1.1 in about 35 states

So that's good

Read 9 tweets
11 Sep
Late night of September 10, 2001, I landed at Dulles airport. Had flown in from San Francisco

I had a 9 am meeting the next day

A joint VA / DOD meeting about improving preventive care for veterans and members of the military

The meeting was to be held at the Pentagon

Had booked a hotel next to the Pentagon in Crystal City

Getting off the plane, I realized meeting had been moved

Construction at the Pentagon so meeting was moved to VA headquarters, near the White House

Next morning at 9:10, meeting began and beepers started going off

All the DOD personnel left

By 9:30, meeting was adjourned and we evacuated the building

I walked out and strolled towards the White House, was stopped by police

Standing around, heard that WTC had been attacked

My mom, brother were in lower Manhattan near WTC that day

Read 7 tweets
10 Sep
If you are vaccinated, why should you care if there are a lot of unvaccinated folks?

After all vaccines are really protective, right?

Yes, vaccines are really protective

But what happens to unvaccinated folks affects us all

Why we have to get more people vaccinated

So if you are fully vaccinated, why should you care?

1. Hospitals full of unvaccinated COVID-19 patients

Don't have room for people who have appendicitis, heart attacks, or a car accident

2. Spikes in cases shut down schools, which is terrible for kids and parents

3. Raging infections shut down restaurants, stores, make it hard for folks to get people back to offices

4. High infection rates put vulnerable people who can't get immunity at risk

Pandemics sicken and kill a lot of people

But they also disrupt the social fabric

Read 5 tweets
9 Sep
I'm pretty thrilled with @potus announcement today

COVID is killing 1500 Americans. Every. Day.

We have the tools to defeat COVID

1. Driving vaccinations

This is not about mandates

This is about creating safe work, hospitals, schools, houses of worship

2. Testing: this is a VERY big deal

We have way underestimated the power of rapid, frequent, ubiquitous testing

Ramping up testing is exactly what our nation needs

3. Boosters -- President says we need a plan for 3rd shot for the vulnerable

Science on this increasingly clear
High risk people: immunocompromised, frail, elders, chronically ill folks need 3rd shot for greater protection

4. Schools -- my goodness. Who doesn't want schools to open safely?

So @POTUS uses the playbook: masking, regular testing, vaccines, ventilation

That's right

Read 6 tweets
5 Sep
Close family member just called to say he tested positive for COVID

He's 21, healthy, college senior, vaxxed

Feels OK. Sore throat, cough, can't smell

Called for advice

He'll be fine

Its his inept university and others like this one that worry me

He got tested yesterday after he woke up with symptoms

Thought he had allergies but he's a super responsible guy

His university has no regular testing

He couldn't get a rapid test -- which would have come back positive yesterday

So got PCR. Results back this afternoon

He asked what he should do

He's heard nothing from contact tracers


University only does contact tracing from 9 am - 5 pm weekdays

He'll get a call Tuesday or Wednesday

Isolation protocol?


He lives "off campus" with 4 friends in an apartment.

He's on his own
Read 6 tweets

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