Thread by @ashishkjha

Quick update on the state of the pandemic in the US

The fourth wave has peaked and is turning down

The downturn is broad-based

What happens next is up to us

So lets start with where we are

Infections down about 10% from the peak

Deaths will turn around soon as well

Thread

Beyond the national picture, its always worth looking at the Big 4: CA, TX, FL, and NY

Together, about 1 in 3 Americans live here

And they are geographically and politically dispersed

So what do we see?

FL, CA turning down

NY flat

and TX rising, but slowly

All good

I often next go to @CovidActNow to quantify what we see

Their estimates of Rt -- infection rate

Here again, you see Rt <1 in FL, CA, at 1.0 in NY, and slightly above 1 in TX

Though PA and OH worry me

But overall Rt <1.1 in about 35 states

So that's good

3/6

But there are real threats we must confront

Schools, colleges are back across the US now

And in places without mitigation efforts (testing, vaccines for adults, masking indoors)

Reasons to believe infection numbers will rise

And of course, weather starting to get cooler

4/7

And we're peaking at high level of infections, deaths

If we level off or meander down slowly, we'll lose another 100K Americans before end of year

So -- no time for complacency

But here's the good news

We don't need major restrictions on people's lives in order to save lives

We don't need to have a 5th wave this winter

We don't need to tolerate another 100K deaths

I wrote about it for @BostonGlobe

The COVID cavalry is here

We have all the tools we need

I think over the next month, 3 things will make a big difference

6/7
bostonglobe.com/2021/09/09/opi…

1. Authorization for 5-11 year-olds. About 28M kiddos will become eligible

2. Mandates will drive vaccinations up. Hopefully a lot

3. Ubiquitous testing. President promised this. Execution will be very hard

And keep improving indoor air, masking during high transmission times

But bottom line is this

We have peaked and are coming down

Experience of UK, others says we can't be complacent

We need to drive deaths down, keep low

We are now at a point in the pandemic where we can prevent deaths without disrupting lives

That's a good place to be

End

And as @AstorAaron reminded me, the 3rd shot!

The 3rd shot ("booster") for high risk individuals like elderly, frail, those with chronic diseases

That'll help in saving lives