In the @WSJ@BjornLomborg uses our analyses of hurricane landfalls to argue that "the frequency of hurricanes making landfall in the continental U.S. has declined slightly since 1900"
There's not comprehensive records globally <1970 but we can go back in time for the North Atlantic & the Western North Pacific, which together have ~70% of all global landfalls
We see an overall decrease since 1945 & majors no trend
"A subset of the best-track data corresponding to hurricanes that have directly impacted the U.S. since 1900 is considered to be reliable, and shows no trend in the frequency of U.S. landfall events" ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
Yes, he is
Bottom line: @BjornLomborg has accurately conveyed the peer-reviewed literature & IPCC conclusions on US hurricane landfalls
More broadly, the US is not an outlier, as similar trends can be found globally on climate time scales
FACT CHECK = 👍👍👍👍👍
PS. But what if you want to cherry pick the data to show more landfalls?
Some suggestions💡:
✅Start data in 1970 to 1980 (lowest activity period this century)
✅Use pre-1944 data in NA (even better, pre-1900)
✅Do some fancy stats on the actual data to create a trend
😎
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Storm surge is a function of a storm and the current sea level
Long-term sea level rise of course raises the level of the sea but has absolutely no effect on storm surge from a particular storm
🤷♂️
I increasingly see the claim that SLR makes storm surge worse
This is incorrect
It’s like saying a 6 ft man is 5,286 ft tall in Denver
SLR & storm surge are both important scientific concepts, purposely confusing them is a bad idea
Even as SLR has increased over the past century+ societal vulnerability to storm surges has decreased, there is no reason to expect that with dedicated effort this trend will not continue
I doubt I'm actually in @TheFIREorg database
My experiences highlighted below
We can add to those
➡️Targeted by the White House
➡️Investigated by Congress
➡️Investigated on campus
➡️Seen all four successful initiatives I created/led on campus shut down
➡️and more 🤓
I ❤️ tenure
I applaud @TheFIREorg for calling attention to these issues for scholars, which come from the right & from the left
They are incredibly difficult to experience & talk about
I'm stubborn/dumb/tenured & have made it thru the worst of it
Did every single person in these states experience a disaster? Each of these states received a statewide disaster declaration in 2021
WA
MT
CA
WA
TN
MO
NY
NE
If not then this headline is wrong
Pro tip: Federal Disaster Declarations reflect presidential politics + disasters
A lie is born
1-"More than 32% of Americans live in a county or state that has been declared a disaster area by FEMA"
2-"Nearly 1 in 3 Americans live in a county hit by a weather disaster in the past 3 months"
3-"Nearly 1 in 3 Americans experienced a weather disaster this summer"