Another FACT CHECK 🧵
The World Is Getting Safer From Floods by @WSJOpinion @BjornLomborg wsj.com/articles/flood… via @WSJOpinion
The World Is Getting Safer From Floods by @WSJOpinion @BjornLomborg wsj.com/articles/flood… via @WSJOpinion
Is this claim by @BjornLomborg in the @WSJ correct?
"the relative toll that floods take on the U.S.—in property and lives—has decreased over time"
Yes it is
Figure below is updated from Downton et al 2005 doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)…
The decline is huge (this data starts 1940)
"the relative toll that floods take on the U.S.—in property and lives—has decreased over time"
Yes it is
Figure below is updated from Downton et al 2005 doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)…
The decline is huge (this data starts 1940)
In terms of flood deaths in the US death has decreased in term of both
Absolute numbers--> weather.gov/media/hazstat/…
And death rates (per capita)--> ourworldindata.org/natural-disast…
Similar to most disaster mortality trends
Absolute numbers--> weather.gov/media/hazstat/…
And death rates (per capita)--> ourworldindata.org/natural-disast…
Similar to most disaster mortality trends
OK, that is the US, what about China?
Flood impacts, economic and human both down sharply
Du et al 2019 nhess.copernicus.org/articles/19/71…
Flood impacts, economic and human both down sharply
Du et al 2019 nhess.copernicus.org/articles/19/71…
OK, that's the US and China, what about India?
Both economic and human impacts down, but not as sharply as in the US and China
Sources:
Both economic and human impacts down, but not as sharply as in the US and China
Sources:
https://twitter.com/RogerPielkeJr/status/1419786357992394752?s=20and
https://twitter.com/RogerPielkeJr/status/1420058055325020170?s=20
Globally? Also down
Merz et al 2021
"fatalities & people affected by disastrous river floods increased from the mid-1970s to the mid-1990s & has since decreased from around 150m people affected/yr to 40m people & from ~10,000 fatalities/yr to 4,000"
nature.com/articles/s4301…
Merz et al 2021
"fatalities & people affected by disastrous river floods increased from the mid-1970s to the mid-1990s & has since decreased from around 150m people affected/yr to 40m people & from ~10,000 fatalities/yr to 4,000"
nature.com/articles/s4301…
What does the IPCC say on this?
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
Confidence in global trends up or down is low
Some places up, some down
Same as AR5
But the decrease in impacts (relative economically & absolute for fatalities) is undeniable
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
Confidence in global trends up or down is low
Some places up, some down
Same as AR5
But the decrease in impacts (relative economically & absolute for fatalities) is undeniable
Bottom line:
@BjornLomborg has accurately conveyed the peer-reviewed literature & IPCC conclusions on flood impacts
More broadly, the US is not an outlier, as similar trends can be found globally on climate time scales
FACT CHECK = 👍👍👍👍👍
@BjornLomborg has accurately conveyed the peer-reviewed literature & IPCC conclusions on flood impacts
More broadly, the US is not an outlier, as similar trends can be found globally on climate time scales
FACT CHECK = 👍👍👍👍👍
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