THREAD on Scotland, cases, schools and hospitals:
TLDR: cases *and* hospitalisations in kids are much much higher than they've ever been.
13% of children are off school (for any reason).
England likely to follow suit... Protect schools. 1/7
TLDR: cases *and* hospitalisations in kids are much much higher than they've ever been.
13% of children are off school (for any reason).
England likely to follow suit... Protect schools. 1/7
Schools in Scotland were back by 19 Aug. Scotland moved to its final level of opening on 9 Aug.
Cases in 15-19 year olds shot up week after 9th & carried on increasing after 19th. Most recent week has seen a fall.
Cases 2x previous peak in July and 6x high than Jan peak. 2/7
Cases in 15-19 year olds shot up week after 9th & carried on increasing after 19th. Most recent week has seen a fall.
Cases 2x previous peak in July and 6x high than Jan peak. 2/7
Of course, many 15-19 year olds are not in school tho.
Looking at Under 15s, we see rise in cases in summer term, drop over holidays and then they have shot up this term. 5x higher than July peak. Last week plateaued... 3/7
Looking at Under 15s, we see rise in cases in summer term, drop over holidays and then they have shot up this term. 5x higher than July peak. Last week plateaued... 3/7
Why is this? Unclear, but school absences (Whether Covid or something else) have gone up too - from 5% at beginning of term to about 13% of pupils now. That's a lot.
Are parents keeping kids home when they hear of an outbreak (which would be counted as non covid reason)? 4/7
Are parents keeping kids home when they hear of an outbreak (which would be counted as non covid reason)? 4/7
And what are the consequences? In the mostly unvaxxed under 18s, hospital admissions with Covid have shot up too and almost 2x higher than July peak and almost 3x higher than Jan peak. 5/7
When cases in kids go up, so do admissions. Yes, it's rarer than for adults, but let's not pretend that high cases in kids are consequence free.
England has also gone back to school at high child admission rates but with fewer mitigations in place than Scotland. 6/7
England has also gone back to school at high child admission rates but with fewer mitigations in place than Scotland. 6/7
I think we urgently need to make schools safer (masks, ventilation, testing, bubbles, distancing), roll out vaccinations to all 12-15 year olds and get community rates down (best way to protect children). 7/7
PS this is specimen date data (ie day of test) so the most recent week for cases will be an underestimate. So 15-19 yr old drop less steep and 0-14 likely slight rise
PPS about 25% of children were not in school in Scotland by the end of term in June 2021. But note that that was when we were isolating contacts of cases in school - that isn't happening any more.
These are the case charts (7 day rolling average) with most recent 2 days removed to account for lags in test results.
PPPS H/T to @TigressEllie & @jneill for highlighting the high numbers of children in Scotland being admitted
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