To become a great investor, focus on a multidisciplinary mindset (become a generalist).
"Most of us study something specific and don’t get exposure to the big ideas of other disciplines. We don’t develop the multidisciplinary mindset that we need to accurately see a problem."
"An engineer will often think in terms of systems by default.
A psychologist will think in terms of incentives.
A business person might think in terms of opportunity cost & risk-reward.
Through their disciplines, each of these people sees part of the situation."
Applying a "multidisciplinary mindset" forces inspiring portfolio managers to have knowledge in psychology & human behavior, ancient & modern history, fundamental securities analysis, accounting, macroeconomics, experience in negotiating, running a business, and so much more.
We've all heard of stories where successful entrepreneurs — specialists in specific areas — have a liquidity event & decide to manage their own wealth.
The results are disastrous, where net worth is halved.
On specialists: "In short, they have blind spots. Big blind spots."
I have tweeted many times on the difference between an entrepreneur (often a specialist) and a portfolio manager or asset allocator (should consider being a generalist).
Entrepreneurs focus on specific business opportunities, management, scaling, growth, etc — vertical specialized thinking.
Investors don't. We focus on allocating capital, diversification, margin of safety, patience, learning from broad fields — horizontal generalist thinking.
"Specialize, specialize, specialize. Double down on what you're good at and don't worry about your shortcomings."
That is the quickest way to fail as an investor.
It is also the quickest way not to grow in life. Instead, double down on what you're NOT good at. Go broad!
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Evergrande should have defaulted years ago, so this isn't a surprise.
As an investor, I do hope the Chinese don't follow the footsteps of the West, especially the Europeans, who bailed everything and everyone out — creating a zombie economy.
Risks haven't been there for only a month, they have been there for a long time.
If the Chinese economy goes through a property market de-leveraging, it will be very painful in the short term, but create a fantastic buying opportunity.
Our portfolio allocation is somewhat planned, but to a great extent very much accidental, as it's based upon "value" offered in different assets, regions & capital stack positions at any given time in the cycle.
In other words, it is more of an art than science.
It can be added that many other market participants do not behave under such mandate, since they are far more authoritarian in their allocation approach.
Rather than searching for value currently on offer, they'll keep buying overpriced assets as it's within their comfort zone.
Flexibility & patience are our edges to mitigate risks & outperform.
As public equities become overpriced we're likely to sidestep into real estate. And when it becomes overpriced, we'll consider special niches like litigation funding, mezzanine debt, or distressed PE deals.