People of Wales, do you want some (possibly) very good news?
I have spoken to one of the people doing the modelling for Covid at Swansea University.
The latest models are promising.
Let me explain
[Thread]
I have spoken to one of the people doing the modelling for Covid at Swansea University.
The latest models are promising.
Let me explain
[Thread]
The latest Swansea University modelling suggests we will reach the peak of the current wave of coronavirus in Wales "very soon".
Within the next fortnight we may see the amount of cases each day start to fall.
Within the next fortnight we may see the amount of cases each day start to fall.
If this is the case it will be significant because it will be the first major long term reversal in the R rate without intervention since the start of the pandemic.
These models have proved accurate in the past and have fed into Welsh Government decisions making throughout the pandemic. Even the most pessimistic models suggest that the peak will be achieved in early October.
HOWEVER, this comes with a big warning for caution
Though the models suggest this, the signals haven't yet really started to appear in the daily data.
Though the models suggest this, the signals haven't yet really started to appear in the daily data.
One of the researchers told me: "It will peak, according to the models, at a level not much higher than we have at the moment.
"But there is no data to test that. It turns over quite quickly so you'll have to get quite close to the peak before you know it's going down."
"But there is no data to test that. It turns over quite quickly so you'll have to get quite close to the peak before you know it's going down."
So why do the models suggest cases will fall?
Basically, because so many people have had the vaccine or the virus, they people available for the virus to infect is shrinking.
Basically, because so many people have had the vaccine or the virus, they people available for the virus to infect is shrinking.
There are things we need to bear in mind when interpreting this.
1. There is no data signal yet that this will happen. Just in the modelling.
2. The NHS pressure is already very high, and will continue to rise beyond the case peak due to the lags.
2. The NHS pressure is already very high, and will continue to rise beyond the case peak due to the lags.
3. In modelling it is always important to look for effects not included in the model that may happen and may raise the R value.
Important things that could change are more relaxed attitudes to mixing, reduced mask wearing, and especially relaxation over testing and isolation.
Important things that could change are more relaxed attitudes to mixing, reduced mask wearing, and especially relaxation over testing and isolation.
There is also the question about how waning immunity will affect the virus.
We have already seen in Israel how third booster jabs were needed as immunity waned after vaccination.
Waning immunity could extend the peak.
We have already seen in Israel how third booster jabs were needed as immunity waned after vaccination.
Waning immunity could extend the peak.
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