I spoke to 10 x Billion $ companies who canceled return to the office due to the delta variant

A few predictions on what else is going to happen

[ a thread ] ๐Ÿ’ป๐Ÿ ๐ŸŒ
โ˜ ๏ธ Office Death: leases are expiring and not being renewed

By the time people can return to the office a lot of companies will no longer have space to return to
๐Ÿƒโ€โ™‚๏ธCity Flight: workers will continue to leave the cities their offices are located in

Many will end up quitting their jobs if their companies try to force them back to the office
๐Ÿšœ Rural Living: many people, particularly those with families, will move to have more space, bigger homes

โ€˜Second-tier citiesโ€™ will do very well as people move back to the areas they are from
๐ŸŽก Hybrid Conflict: what companies think hybrid work is and what workers think it is are two different things

Workers think it means being able to work remotely whenever they want

Companies think it means telling workers when they must attend

Huge resentment will happen
๐Ÿ— Construction Cancellation: perfect storm of high commodity prices and empty offices will lead to far less being built

There will be a huge deficit in high quality spaces optimized for remote workers when they do come together physically
๐ŸŒ Global Hiring: almost everything company will begin expanding the areas in which they hire

Remote work will democratize access to the best opportunity even more rapidly over the next 6-12 months
โŒ Offsite Postponement: Most companies will stop remote off sites until at least the end of Q1 2022

There will be a big push forward on things that build culture remotely and perks delivered in peoples homes
๐Ÿ” Hyper Turnover: workers have seen how theyโ€™re companies intend to remote work

Many donโ€™t like what they have seen

We are about to live through the highest period of turnover between companies in history as people find the company who gives them what they need
๐Ÿ“ฌ Micro Coworking: spaces close to home will rise rapidly for people who donโ€™t want to or canโ€™t WFH

This will be a home on every street, kitted out with the right furniture, great coffee, and on demand fitness equipment
๐Ÿ’บ Office Furntiture: the best companies in the world will care about their people the most

Making sure workers are as safe, comfortable and productive at home as in an office is essential

Great companies will do this

Bad ones wonโ€™t
๐Ÿ›‘ Async Emerges: remote work has lasted so long people are fatigued by the office being replicated remotely

Being in video calls all day makes you feel busy but crushed productivity

Most companies are looking to become more async as a result
โ›“ Habits Fixed: remote work has lasted so long, some behaviors will be almost impossible to change

By the time people can go back into the office safely, remote work will have been the norm for millions of people for over 2 years
๐Ÿš™ Commuting Death: no matter what companies try workers will never accept commuting 2H a day again

Companies who donโ€™t realize this will push their best people out the door
๐Ÿ’ฐ Remote Savings: spending $10K-50K per worker on office space each year will never happen again

Companies wonโ€™t just save this cash, they will use it to retain and attract great people
๐Ÿ’‰Vaccine Debate: there will be furious discussion on the right policyโ€™s companies will roll out relating to vaccinated and unvaccinated workers
๐ŸšŒ School Closures: will happen widely again. This will put huge pressure on working parents

Some companies will find ways to help their workers
โค๏ธ Remote Communities: workers living closer to other friends, family, or people with similar hobbies who all work remotely

Shared childcare, living closer to the things that make them happiest, all while continuing to do great work
Why do these companies talk to me?

FirstbaseHQ.com

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More from @chris_herd

9 Sep
Blows my mind some people believe going back to the office is the only way to see people IRL

Employers controlling your closest relationships is a bad thing

Your closest relationships depending on business success โ€“ where if that changes relationships end โ€“ is even worse

๐Ÿคทโ€โ™‚๏ธ
This highlights so many societal issues around friendship and meaning

Go back 30 years, people had hobbies outside of work

Now, work occupies so much of your day, and commute time has grown, meaning people no longer have time for relationships outside work
People donโ€™t need more shallow, superficial relationships that happen via full-time office work

They need deeper, meaningful relationships with the people they care about most

They need more time to do the things that make them happiest with others who share common interests
Read 8 tweets
1 Sep
I spoke to 3,000+ teams about remote working after Covid-19

This is what I learned

[ a thread ] ๐Ÿ’ป๐Ÿ ๐ŸŒŽ
๐Ÿข HQโ€™s are finished: companies will cut their commercial office space by 50-70%

They will allow every worker to work from home 2-4 days a week, and come into the office 1-2 days a week
๐ŸŒ Fully distributed: ~30% of the companies we talk to are getting rid of the office entirely and going remote-first

Companies doing this have seen their workers decentralize rapidly, leaving expensive cities to be closer to family
Read 23 tweets
20 Aug
I've spoken to 2,000+ companies over the last 12 months about their plans for remote work going forward

Here are a few things I've learned

[ a thread ] ๐Ÿ’ป๐Ÿ ๐ŸŒ
๐Ÿข HQโ€™s are finished: companies will cut their commercial office space by 50-70%

The will allow every worker to work from home 2-4 days a week, and come into the office 1-2 days a week
๐ŸŒ Fully distributed: ~30% of the companies we talk to are getting rid of the office entirely and going remote-first

Companies doing this have seen their workers decentralize rapidly, leaving expensive cities to be closer to family
Read 22 tweets
16 Aug
$100B+ companies are delaying their return to office plans again

By the time offices open, people will have worked remotely for 2+ years

A few prediction on what happens next

[ a thread ] ๐Ÿ’ป๐Ÿ ๐ŸŒ
๐Ÿ’ซ Worker Choice: millions of workers will never go back to the office full-time

Companies who let workers choose where they want to work will dominate the next decade
โ˜ ๏ธ Office-first Death: companies who go ahead with return to office plans will be crushed

All their most talented people will leave for companies who care about their quality of life
Read 20 tweets
13 Aug
The media obsession of asking people what theyโ€™d *give up* for remote work is wrong

We ran a survey to ask people what what they *expect*

200+ people responded: what we learned is fascinating

[ a thread ] ๐Ÿ’ป๐Ÿ ๐ŸŒ
โœ… Worker Choice:7 in 10 employees want to be free to choose where they work

2 in 10 want to be fully remote
1 in 10 want to be in office "a few days a week"

Only 3 in 100 want to be in the office full-time
๐Ÿชœ Remote Support: 8 in 10 workers think companies should do whatever it takes to make remote work great

2 in 10 think there should be moderate support to help remote workers

Only 2 in 100 think companies should optimize for the office & let remote workers fend for themselves
Read 22 tweets
12 Aug
Not becoming remote-first will lead to a Trillion $ company being replaced

A few reasons why this will happen

[ a thread ] ๐Ÿ’ป๐Ÿ ๐ŸŒ
๐Ÿ“œ The Past: What happened to every company that didnโ€™t adopt computers?

What happened to every company that didnโ€™t implement Software?

What happened to every company that didnโ€™t accept the internet?

Whatโ€™s about to happen to every company that doesnโ€™t embrace remote work?
๐Ÿ“Š The Data: 9 in 10 people never want to work in an office again full-time

Full-time office companies face the biggest exodus of talent in history

We are about to see the highest period of turnover in history between companies
Read 11 tweets

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