@RobinBHarding Waiting at the hospital for an ECG. Thought I’d throw in my tuppence re Robin’s excellent FT piece on detecting fin bubbles…
The financial implications of the house price crash have left a legacy of a mild depression which has fed a bull market for fear. Risk free collateral has literally become priceless.  This can be seen by the daily manoeuvrings of the Fed to avoid market rates turning negative.
The stunning spectre of the alien body invasion demonstrated some biz models that weathered covid with profits intact. These have also been ordained riskless, and investors happy to countenance v low future returns for security.
Elsewhere, everything else that trades with the hint of commercial risk is less obviously highly or “over” rated, many equity household names trade at prices which prevailed 20 years ago.
Hence, I conclude that there is a coterie of riskless equity models whose combined valuation accounts for a disproportionate amount of the total stock market
Should the mild depression conditions persist, it seems likely that risk averse investors will continue to rationally forgo future returns for today’s certainty
I don’t see anything to disrupt today’s dominant deflation centrifuge…and hence I don’t believe that The Big Short is an apt descriptor of today’s financial markets
P.s., the cardiogram is for an insurance program although that damn fast has messed up my metabolism

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More from @hendry_hugh

13 Sep
Groundhog Day. Same airport, same plastic chair. Time for another airport adventure. Did I tell you about my misfortune in 2019? I was visiting my ailing parents in Glasgow having travelled from Paris. On the return, I left my phone in the car that delivered me to the airport.
I had to commandeer an other phone from a hapless bystander. Needless to say, phone was recovered but time was a squeeze. Now Scotland ain't the Caribbean. I find it officious and pernickety. It was full disclosure at the security gate. All toys demounted and displayed.
Amazing the sheer volume of brickbats that you must reveal to the State. I was agitated, some might say perturbed by the shrinking time corridor to catch my Paris flight and taste redemption. I didn't pay particular attention re-packing my gear back into my hand luggage
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Ok, bored @ SXM airport. I’m heading back to London to hang out around the groovy confines of portobello road.
I guess the thing that most disturbs me about modern life is the willingness of the many to obey to the strictures of the few…probably I’m selfish.
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At the end, this morning, I felt like I was leaving hospital after major surgery. It made me think of Graham Greene's autob - Ways of Escape - and the night during his trek somewhere in Liberia when his cousin thought he was going to die. Greene remembers having no fear of death.
He had lived comfortably accepting its inevitability. Like all of us perhaps - we grow older and we die, right? Fatalism it seems is everywhere. But in the depths of his malaria he discovered that he was more passionate about staying alive than he could ever imagine
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3 Sep
First tweet in an age...my fingers are trembling but I warned you that I'd be back with hurricane season. Everyone has left st barts. I'm fasting. Haven't had a dime in 5 days sauf a scoop of vegan powder and some nootropics for my brain and to keep muscle. I'm working out big
No filters...bring on reality
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Hi! I’ve been perturbed…
I became the cliché of a real estate investor and I’m enduring a funding crisis. Don’t worry. I need to exaggerate to excessive levels to get anything done. It’s my jet fuel. But I lost my mojo and couldn’t find the silly path. No silly photos, no YouTube
It’s as though I was no longer a time traveller revisiting my past to tell you about the future. That had to end.
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I might be doing a liverstream in about 5 minutes.
I can't release a podcast this week but I'm uncertain if I can make this work
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