Thread by @alihashem_tv

Iran’s posture with regard to developments in Afghanistan

1- Afghanistan is Iran’s strategic depth to the East, it’s an essential pillar in Iran’s extended national security, there are multilayered intertwined interests, security, economy, society, culture, environment, etc..

2- More than 900 KMs of borders, a shared river (Hirmand/ Hari Rud) that was a reason for tension between Tehran and Kabul during Ashraf Ghani’s reign. The dispute goes back in history at least 150 years.

voanews.com/south-central-…

3- Limiting Iran’s policies and interests in Afghanistan to the existence of a Shia minority is quite simplistic. During the 2001 talks in Bonn Iran’s influence over its non-Shia allies was striking when compared to the Shia groups in Afghanistan

Ayatollah Asif Mohsini’s (late Afghan Shia Ayatollah) had differences with Tehran for several years, (even on Syria he had his nuanced position), while some Shia groups were closer to Pakistan than Iran in 2001.

4- Iran’s Afghanistan policy is more pragmatic than ideological. Religious goals don’t inspire Tehran’s priorities, rather securing a sphere of influence that could help in solidifying Iran’s leverage and creating economic opportunities that could help circumvent sanctions.

5- for history, Iran’s relations with Afghanistan during the monarchy was friendly, except for the last few years. After Iran’s revolution that was followed by a Soviet invasion of Afghanistan a new era began.

6- According to @mohsenmilani, Iran’s ties with Afghanistan went through four phases.
iranprimer.usip.org/sites/default/…

A- Iran called for a Soviet withdrawal and aided Afghan Shiites.
B- after the Soviet Army withdrew, Iran helped the non-Pushtun ethnic groups form a united front. During the Afghan civil war, Iran, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia supported different warlords.

C- when the Taliban seized power in 1996, Iran refused to recognize the government and instead provided military support to the Northern Alliance opposition.
D- since the U.S.-backed Northern Alliance ended Taliban rule, Iran has developed friendly relations with the Karzai gov.

7- Iran preserved strong ties with Karzai after leaving power, Abdullah Abdullah continued to be a valued ally in Kabul, on the contrary, Ashraf Ghani created a lot of headache for Tehran and was always seen as an obstacle towards better Afghani-Iranian relations.

8 - As of 2004, a new path started to originate for Iran in Afghanistan. The end of a short Iran-US honeymoon in Iraq and Afg created new opportunities for IR. Defeated Taliban posed as a potential investment that would help the Iran exert pressure whenever needed on the US

9- what happened over the past 15 years remains unknown, but l IRGC QF Ismail Ghaani is believed to be one of the main pillars of Iran’s relations with Taliban

he also facilitated the formation of Afghan and Pakistani militias loyal to Iran known as Fatemiyoon and Zaynabeyoon respectively, both were extensively involved in Iran’s involvement in Syria.

foreignpolicy.com/2014/07/10/the…

There r allegations that Qassem Soleimani enjoyed strong ties with the Haqqani network, CNN reported that bounties" were paid by Iran, to the Haqqani network for their attack on Bagram Air Base on December 11.
cnn.com/2020/08/17/pol…

9- In 2015 the first Taliban delegation to openly visit Tehran requested to open an office in the Iranian capital.

theguardian.com/world/iran-blo…

10 - later, several delegations visited Tehran, the last just a month before entering Kabul.

https://twitter.com/alihashem_tv/status/1412635516957335553?s=21

11- When Taliban took power, Tehran reacted positively to the developments, however it stood to a position that an inclusive government should be formed. However, it’s aware that this might not happen immediately.

12- still, Tehran counted on Karzai and Abdullah to help bridge a consensus and help link Taliban and other main players, mainly its very own allies in the northern alliance (Ahmad Massoud junior).

A govt consisting of only Taliban members, the attack on Panjshir, prompted Tehran to send new msgs to Taliban. Taliban conveyed to the Iranians that they can only guarantee that the Shias are safe and this should be Iran’s only concern.

13- but this isn’t the fact, the pressure from in within Iran on the state to interfere and protect its allies in Panjshir is mounting (mainly from reformists), however the state prefers to abide by the pragmatic approach and wait for regional efforts to materialise

14- Though they had too much time, Tehran didn’t bridge the narrative towards Taliban internally. Hence, ordinary Iranians were left wondering how to receive the change next door, this applies to supporters of Iran’s led resistance axis across the region.

15- for now, Iran appears to continue its cautious approach, Taliban in power isn’t bad news for Tehran, yet only Taliban in power is what it wants to avoid. It also wants to avoid a civil war in Afghanistan with the growing threat of ISILK and other implications.

And this just came to my attention, according to @TehranTimes79, Tehran city council has named an alley in the northern part of the capital after Afghanistan’s Panjshir
tehrantimes.com/news/464887/Te…