Thread by @ProfPaulPoast

The September 11, 2001 attack was an anomaly...that was bound to happen.

[THREAD]

Before going into the "why" of attacks, important to quickly review what happened. The 9/11 attacks were when...

...19 members of the organization Al-Qaeda...

...hijacked 4 airliners the morning of Tuesday September 11, 2001...

...and flew them into buildings representing US global economic power (the World Trade Center in NYC)...

...and political/military power (the Pentagon in D.C., with a 4th plane -- which crashed in Pennsylvania -- aimed at the Capitol Building).

What made these attacks an anomaly?

Put simply: Just because AN attack was likely to happen at some point (we'll come back to that), doesn't mean it had to be THIS attack.

The scale of the 9/11 attacks were shocking and intentionally so (referred to as "spectacular attacks").

I think there is validity to what then National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice said about US officials having a "Failure to Imagine".
foreignpolicy.com/2010/01/22/a-f…

Given the scale and complexity of the attack, it could have fallen apart at a number of points. This becomes evident from reading the 9/11 Commission Report

9-11commission.gov

Take just one example of how everything had to be perfect: If the 2000 election had not been close, 9/11 attacks may not have happened.

Why is that? Because due to the closeness of the election (see "hanging chads")...

...and the subsequent court fight over the outcome...
millercenter.org/contested-pres…

...the transition to the next administration was delayed.
cnbc.com/2020/11/11/for…

If the election had not been so close and disputed, either Gore would have been President and most everything, including properly staffing key national security positions, would have largely continued from the outgoing Clinton administration...

https://twitter.com/LorenRaeDeJ/status/1436383579735531527

...or Bush would have come to office much sooner, which means he may well have been brought up to speed about Al-Qaeda much sooner.

cnn.com/2013/07/27/us/…

In short, a "perfect storm" enabled the attacks to occur.

But just because the success of THIS particular attack was unlikely, doesn't mean that ANY major attack was unlikely.

That is why were they bound to happen.

In fact, Al-Qaeda had already attacked US private citizens and soldiers numerous times...

foreignaffairs.com/articles/middl…

...including a car/truck bomb at the World Trade Center itself back in 1993.

But by "bound to happen", I'm actually referring to something more fundamental: a consequence of American Hegemony.
press.princeton.edu/books/hardcove…

Major powers (especially THE major power) are going to be targeted by not just other states dissatisfied with the current world order, but also non-state groups.

Such groups have always existed and the major powers of the world serve as their target.

Just refer back to the "anarchist" groups of the late 19th century and early 20th century. I mean, these groups successfully assassinated a US President (McKinley)

In many ways, organizations like Al-Qaeda are just the continuation of such groups (see, for example, this article by @whitneykassel)
tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…

Indeed, there didn't seem to be anything special about the reasons that Al-Qaeda's leader, Osama bin Laden, gave for the attacks.

While he gave specific emphasis to US military presence in the Middle East region and support to Israel and Saudi Arabia, his grievances are also wide ranging (and rambling).

See, for example, his "Letter to America"

theguardian.com/world/2002/nov…

So if it hadn't been Al-Qaeda it would have been some group.

Indeed, the group could even have been domestic. See the 1995 Oklahoma City Bombing

Many have written recently on the consequences and implications of the attack (including myself), such as the broader "War on Terror" or the invasion of Afghanistan (which was where Al-Qaeda was based).
foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/08/sep…

When reflecting on the consequences of 9/11, important to recognize that an attack of that scale was HIGHLY unlikely at the time and HIGHLY unlikely to be successfully pulled off again. It was an anomaly.

But the fact that the US was attacked at all?

That was inevitable.

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