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CasualtiesOfTheDay Profile picture
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12 Sep, 5 tweets, 2 min read
This is fair. I bought into the "he's dead" narrative, but that's almost certainly not the case.
CENTCOM commander Gen. McKenzie said in June 2020 he was still in Afghanistan
UN report said the same towards the end of July
SECDEF Austin and CJCS Milley suggested in May of this year that Zawahiri was alive but that they didn't know where he was (or they'd have killed him):

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More from @Ayei_Eloheichem

CasualtiesOfTheDay Profile picture
13 Sep
I don't know if France is inviting Russia in as part of some hare-brained scheme to reduce or supplement its own footprint or whether Russia is just displacing France across the continent as it seemingly did in CAR, but this is not great: reuters.com/world/africa/e…
.@SamRamani2 wrote about this a year ago: fpri.org/article/2020/0…
Seems pretty clear Russia had a role in the coup: "Several hundred Malians rallied in the capital Bamako on Friday to support the army, as well as Russia, AFP journalists said, after the military reasserted control in the unstable Sahel state this week." africanews.com/2021/05/29/mal…
Read 6 tweets
CasualtiesOfTheDay Profile picture
13 Sep
Part I

State Department: I mean, this current Taliban cabinet isn't ideal, what with being all-male, all Taliban old guard and all terrorists, but we won't judge it because it's only interim and the REAL Taliban government in the future might be inclusive!

🤡🤡🤡
Part II. Fucking MIND-BLOWING

State Department: Will the Taliban uphold their commitments to freedom of travel and CT? "Will they sustain progress for women and girls?"

"We don’t yet know the answer to any of those questions."

YES WE FUCKING DO JFC
Full [infuriating] exchange:
Read 4 tweets
CasualtiesOfTheDay Profile picture
13 Sep
Very interesting discussion with @ObaidullaBaheer, @jmurtazashvili, and Michael Semple on Taliban "governance" and the conundrum of humanitarian aid provision, funds, and engaging with the Taliban given the looming humanitarian catastrophe.
My own opinion on this issue is that NGOs and governments empowering, legitimizing, and subsidizing brutal regimes and insurgents like the Houthis, Taliban, Assad, TPLF, AQ, etc out of humanitarian concern does far more harm than good 👇
The fact is that the Taliban just do not care about governance or aid provision or anything, really, beyond jihad and Sharia.
Read 7 tweets
CasualtiesOfTheDay Profile picture
12 Sep
While I am always happy to hear someone trash "CVE," and this article contains some legitimate criticisms, its overall thesis is 😬 newlinesmag.com/argument/under…
The author's key contentions:
1) CVE stigmatizes [Muslim] communities
2) CVE refuses to blame Western foreign policy for Muslim radicalization
3) Joining the jihad no different to drug addiction or other social ills, so "focus on making our societies more inclusive and hopeful"
Ironically, the author, in criticizing CVE, inadvertently falls into the same trap as the industry: It's the ideology, stupid.

"Improving the lot of youth" is not the answer to CVE – it's just another expression of the same liberal delusions.
Read 6 tweets
CasualtiesOfTheDay Profile picture
10 Sep
This is a very cogently argued, interesting thesis.

However, I think it's a misinterpretation of the data and an error of framing: newlinesmag.com/argument/what-… Image
1. Firstly, analysts shouldn't juxtapose transnational terrorism and local insurgency.

Operational capabilities and tactical considerations may shift, but AQ/IS have always and will always focus on external operations as well as co-opting local insurgencies. It's not either/or.
2. Additionally, what we are witnessing is not jihadists regressing back to their local insurgent roots.

On the contrary, we are seeing local insurgencies be entirely subsumed by inherently transnational movements like the Islamic State.
Read 12 tweets
CasualtiesOfTheDay Profile picture
9 Sep
👇
Strip this report of its framing, though, and it's fascinating and well-written.
Read 4 tweets

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