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12 Sep, 4 tweets, 2 min read
A reminder as @iaeaorg-Iran deal lifts pressure of censure resolution of Iran at IAEA board. Two years ago, in Sep 2019, @rafaelmgrossi predecessor, @CornelFeruta, said “time is of the essence” for Tehran to offer explanations about nuclear material related safeguards concerns-1-
google.be/amp/s/www.wsj.… @rafaelmgrossi won the IAEA race over Feruta in no small part by pledging a tougher line on #Iran. And he did push issue hard. But the reality is he’s no closer to -2-
credible explanations for the nuclear material findings than we were in late 2019. And it’s clear that the desire of the E3/US to penalise Iran for its lack of cooperation is weaker than it was in 2019. Will that change if there’s a nuclear deal in place? Maybe. -3-
But it would be an act of folly - detached from the experience of the last 15 years - to assume it. -4-

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More from @laurnorman

laurence norman Profile picture
14 Sep
Just ran: There have been several incidents in recent months where male security guards at Natanz, #Iran have physically harassed female IAEA inspectors, including inappropriate touching and instructing them to remove clothes, diplomats say. -1-wsj.com/articles/irani…
The @iaeaorg has not formally reported the incidents to its Board despite some pushing them to do so. In a statement, @iaeaorg confirmed incidents without detailing them and said that after warnings, Iran has stopped. -2-
Yet we report the most recent incident was in recent weeks and the U.S. on Monday circulated a non-paper to other members, calling on partner countries to raise the issue at @iaeaorg Board and call on Iran to stop immediately. -3-
Read 6 tweets
laurence norman Profile picture
13 Sep
Interestingly, @rafaelmgrossi says today something he didn't make clear last night. "I did not receive any promise" from Iran authorities to address safeguards probe. "I was not seeking, in this trip, promises….I need to have a clear conversation with the new government" -1-
about this…I need to sit down with them, how I see the whole picture, and tell also what I expect from them and hear from them as well," @rafaelmgrossi says. He says he hopes to do this at forthcoming Tehran trip. -2-
@rafaelmgrossi Seems to contradict joint statement which talked about "enhancing cooperation between Iran and the IAEA in different fields and discussing issues of material interest." -3-
Read 4 tweets
laurence norman Profile picture
13 Sep
The online enrichment mechanisms in Iran are still in place, @rafaelmgrossi confirms in answer to @virtualnomad
On censure resolution, @rafaelmgrossi notes that nowhere in the joint statement over weekend was it stated that the agreement with Iran on access was predicated on the absence of a censure resolution this week. (even though we all know de facto it was). -2-
@rafaelmgrossi .@rafaelmgrossi confirms that, as was pretty clear, IAEA has current access to plenty of footage at Natanz and Fordow. He says they go there "as often as is required." We have the number of cameras "that we need." Ie the lack of access was only for nuclear-related sites in JCPOA
Read 6 tweets
laurence norman Profile picture
13 Sep
.@rafaelmgrossi "Since my report was released, we have seen that the DPRK appears to have removed the cooling units from the Yongbyon centrifuge enrichment facility. There were indications of ongoing activities at the Kangson complex. There were also indications..." -1-
@rafaelmgrossi ...that the #DPRK has continued internal construction activities at the Light Water Reactor under construction. The DPRK’s nuclear activities continue to be a cause for serious concern." -2-
@rafaelmgrossi " Furthermore, the new indications of the operation of the 5MW(e) reactor and the Radiochemical Laboratory are deeply troubling." #DPRK @rafaelmgrossi For context: wsj.com/articles/north… -3-
Read 6 tweets
laurence norman Profile picture
12 Sep
In presser, back at Vienna, @rafaelmgrossi said that before his weekend Tehran trip, there was a "major communication breakdown with Iran which of course is something we cannot afford having so many issues we have to solve.” -1-
On safeguards, @rafaelmgrossi said he needed to sit down with new govt and get their commitment to engage. "What we need to do is to set the platform…This may take time. It’s not heroic but it’s much better than any alternative." -2-
.@rafaelmgrossi won't specify when the inspectors get access to the monitoring equipment. He says it's been agreed "very soon" but won't answer whether that will be before or after end of next week's @iaeaorg board. Earlier @mashabani said officials told him it would be after.
Read 7 tweets
laurence norman Profile picture
12 Sep
As reported, #Iran now agreeing to @iaeaorg access to re-set monitoring equipment at nuclear-related sites so it keeps working.
The big question now is safeguards. What will Iran agree to do? Will it be any different to past days promises that weren’t fulfilled? Will @rafaelmgrossi accept any site or time limits on the agency’s probe into several unreported nuclear material traces in Iran? -2-
So we have answers to this now: The joint statement doesn’t pledge Iran to specific new steps on safeguards but it also makes no promises of dropping the issue or limiting it in time or locations. The statement sets up top level meetings in coming weeks to discuss all issues. -3-
Read 7 tweets

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