Thread by @alex_randall

Ok, here’s what you need to know about the new @WorldBank report on climate and migration. First up - no, this isn’t an estimate of the number of “climate refugees” there are going to be. This is a report about *internal* migration [Thread]
worldbank.org/en/news/featur…

2/ The overwhelming majority of migration and displacement linked to climate impacts is internal. People move within their own country, rather than crossing a border. Even as impacts grow, people will still look to move internally first.

3/ The report is looking at future predictions - but that doesn’t mean that migration linked to climate change isn’t already happening. It is. Many people are moving right now in complex crises in which climate change has played a role

4/ No matter how fast we cut emissions, climate change is still going to reshape patterns of migration. Rapid emissions cuts are needed, they will help. Every fraction of a degree matters. But shifts in patterns of mobility *will* happen.

5/ A lot of this movement will happen in situations of extreme stress and tragedy. But - to an extent - these humanitarian crises can be averted. The crises are avoidable, but the movement of people in some form probably isn’t

6/ The key will be helping people move in advance of a crisis. Mobility must be embraced as a way of avoiding tragedy and a way of avoiding humanitarian emergencies. This means making migration safe and legal

7/ People are already using migration as a way of adapting to climate change impacts. In the face of climate change, many people are moving as a way of protecting their lives and livelihoods - usually finding work in cities and the @WorldBank report does recognise this...

8/ … but making this movement safe means creating viable options for people to move out of harm's way. That means creating infrastructure in places that people will want to move to and protecting their rights while they are on the move

9/ It probably also means creating new ways for people to cross international borders safely and legally - and new ways for people to gain permanent residence in new countries. This kind of cross border migration isn’t happening yet. But it could be part of the solution

10/ As the impacts of climate change deepen, helping people make these journeys safely should be seen as a form of climate change adaptation. Right now, climate adaptation mostly means staying put and coping

11/ Unfortunately the ‘stay put’ approach to climate adaptation will run out of road at some point. Mobility must now start to form part of global adaptation strategies. And those strategies need to be grounded in the rights and livelihoods of people on the move

12/ Unfortunately - instead we’re spending billions on trying to prevent people from moving. Billions on militarizing borders. Billions on technology to police and surveil migrants. This is basically a huge waste of money. It’s not the infrastructure anyone needs

13/ So the World Bank report is right to point to migration as a form of climate adaptation. But this is only half of the picture. Several other key parts of the equation are missing.

14/ The first is that governments need to stop wasting money on trying to stop people moving. Instead they need to sink that money into infrastructure that means people have liveable places to move to

15/ It means opening up migration for people regardless of who they are. Right now “migration as adaptation” means moving to find work. That’s fine. But we can’t make people’s survival dependent on the (frankly, broken) economy and labor market

16/ If we want migration as a form of climate adaptation to be safe and inclusive (as the World Bank says) then it means creating economies that are safe and inclusive too. And migration options for people who can’t work. (Right now we’re a long way from that)

17/ None of this is possible while governments are wasting money militarizing borders. Crises happen when people are prevented from moving. The more we stop people moving, the more of a crisis it will become