Oh so *now* everyone wants to know about climate-linked migration. Now that we've had a record breaking summer, you're all thinking "wait, with this happening all over the world there are going to be some impacts on migration - right?" Yes, right
But here's the thing. They may not be the changes you think. The way climate change alter s patterns of migration isn't ways straightforward. And you can't get your head around it without first understanding some basics... 
Far from being a matter of speculation, there is vast and rich academic literature on this - and we can make some pretty good predictions about what is going to happen. Climate change will alter migration in some fairly predictable ways
First up - migration and displacement are not the same. Sure, they get used interchangeably by the media all the time. But if you want to understand this, you need to start using them right.
In general migration is when people move with some degree of choice about where and when they go. Displacement is when people move in order to survive - with little or no choice
Climate change is going to change patterns of both migration and displacement. But it's going to do different things to them. This podcast is a good place to start getting to grips with that: climatemigration.org.uk/getting-starte…
There are also different kinds of climate-liked impacts. They are going to create different kinds of migration too. Firstly we've got 'slow onset' event: drought, water stress, sea level rise. Things that unfold over months and years climatemigration.org.uk/understanding-…
Next up we've got 'sudden onset' events. Hurricane / typhoon strikes, flash floods, wildfires, mudslides. Things that happen in the space of hours with little warning
Sudden onset events are going to create short distance, internal displacement. People will have to move quickly in order to survive - but won't go far. This is what happened after Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines
Slowly unfolding events (like drought) are going to create migration and displacement. Some people will be forced to move as their livelihoods are destroyed by droughts and water shortages. This what is happening in the Horn of Africa.
Other people may choose to migrate early, rather than wait and be displaced later. Maybe not much of a choice. But moving before they reach a crisis point leaves them some choice about where and when they move.
Climate-linked migration is going to be circular. Really? People will want to go back? Yes, very much. Places don't become uninhabitable overnight. Lots of people will leave and return several times before making a permanent move
Also, most families won't migrate together. A few family members will leave as the family tries to balance out the costs and benefits of having people working away Vs people staying at home.
Most of this migration will also be INTERNAL. And the vast majority of it will be be from rural to urban areas. That doesn't mean it won't be significant. The World Bank rekonds 140 million people by 2050
But wait, aren't millions of people going go cross borders to escape climate impacts? Maybe. But this depends on a lot of things. Firstly, how much warming we end up with. And secondly how good we are at adapting.
Some people will also be prevented from moving by climate impacts. Wait, what? They won't migrate because of climate change? Yes. Think this one through for a minute. Migration always requires money. People need to get from one place to another, and that always costs.
Impacts like drought are going wreck people's livelihoods and make them poorer. So lots of people who might need to migrate, actually might not have the money to do it. Here's the paper:fmreview.org/crisis/black-c…
Everything is going to get more complicated. For example refugees that have been displaced by non-climate forces, are going to get displaced a second time by climate impacts. This is what is happening to the Rohingya in Bangladesh. mondediplo.com/outsidein/stat…
Final though: trying to stop people from moving is usually a terrible idea. When you see a migration 'crisis' on the news, what you're actually looking at is a crisis caused by trying to stop people going from A to B.
Climate change will require us to be more open to migration. Thanks for coming on the journey. I wish this was simpler, but it just isn't.
If you liked this thread, you will also like my new one - looking at how climate change could alter patterns of conflict and violence across the planet
