🇮🇪 #Covid19 It’s been one year since the LongForgottenDublinPandemicExperimentOf2020™️
If we had paid attention, 2021 could have been much, much better. Here’s why..
[we didn’t learn, but it’s never too late!] 1/
If we had paid attention, 2021 could have been much, much better. Here’s why..
[we didn’t learn, but it’s never too late!] 1/
On 13 Sept 2020 the national 7-day average was 187 cases/day (it’s currently 1,300 almost 7 times amount)
In context of summer 2020, there were concerns. So govt brought in new restrictions ~for Dublin only~
Most significant was a ban on indoor dining & pubs ~in Dublin only~ 2/
In context of summer 2020, there were concerns. So govt brought in new restrictions ~for Dublin only~
Most significant was a ban on indoor dining & pubs ~in Dublin only~ 2/
[+ an inter-county travel ban, limits on gatherings, closure of museums, & limits on some other not-so-high risk activities]
Most significant difference between Dublin & the Rest of Ireland was that indoor dining & pubs were open outside Dublin 3/
assets.gov.ie/87604/405b1065…
Most significant difference between Dublin & the Rest of Ireland was that indoor dining & pubs were open outside Dublin 3/
assets.gov.ie/87604/405b1065…
the Dublin Experiment ran for 1 month, until mid-Oct when a 6 week lockdown (to early Dec) was brought in for entire country
During the Dublin Experiment, schools, colleges & retail were all open.
Ireland is small with no significant climate variation
So, what happened? 4/
During the Dublin Experiment, schools, colleges & retail were all open.
Ireland is small with no significant climate variation
So, what happened? 4/
Dublin
(shops/schools/colleges open, indoor dining closed)
16 Sept 136 cases/day
16 Oct 254
2x increase
Rest of Ireland
(as above + indoor dining open)
16 Sept 118 cases/day
16 Oct 746
6x increase
If Rest of Ireland had been 2x, Oct lockdown *may not have been needed* 5/
(shops/schools/colleges open, indoor dining closed)
16 Sept 136 cases/day
16 Oct 254
2x increase
Rest of Ireland
(as above + indoor dining open)
16 Sept 118 cases/day
16 Oct 746
6x increase
If Rest of Ireland had been 2x, Oct lockdown *may not have been needed* 5/
December for comparison (yes, diff conditions more travel, public transport use & indoor socialising, colder weather)
Dublin (indoor dining open)
4 Dec 84 cases
4 Jan 3,655 cases
44x increase
Rest of Ireland (=Dublin)
4 Dec 181 cases
4 Jan 2,455 cases
14x increase
/6
Dublin (indoor dining open)
4 Dec 84 cases
4 Jan 3,655 cases
44x increase
Rest of Ireland (=Dublin)
4 Dec 181 cases
4 Jan 2,455 cases
14x increase
/6
this is NOT to say close indoor dining & pubs..
#Covid19 is an indoor pandemic & risk is ALL about indoor air
Some high risk indoor environments have a very disproportionate impact on virus spread
We can measure & manage them, to keep businesses open
Here’s how to do it…
7/
#Covid19 is an indoor pandemic & risk is ALL about indoor air
Some high risk indoor environments have a very disproportionate impact on virus spread
We can measure & manage them, to keep businesses open
Here’s how to do it…
7/
https://twitter.com/johnwenger9/status/1437034866076528646
& it’s nothing new. Chicago did this in 1918 & reopened the city in 6 weeks
8/
8/
https://twitter.com/orla_hegarty/status/1373212120171610120
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