🇮🇪 #Covid19 It’s been one year since the LongForgottenDublinPandemicExperimentOf2020™️

If we had paid attention, 2021 could have been much, much better. Here’s why..

[we didn’t learn, but it’s never too late!] 1/ Our World in Data graph of Covid-19 cases in Ireland March 2
On 13 Sept 2020 the national 7-day average was 187 cases/day (it’s currently 1,300 almost 7 times amount)

In context of summer 2020, there were concerns. So govt brought in new restrictions ~for Dublin only~

Most significant was a ban on indoor dining & pubs ~in Dublin only~ 2/ Graph of 2020 cases
[+ an inter-county travel ban, limits on gatherings, closure of museums, & limits on some other not-so-high risk activities]

Most significant difference between Dublin & the Rest of Ireland was that indoor dining & pubs were open outside Dublin 3/
the Dublin Experiment ran for 1 month, until mid-Oct when a 6 week lockdown (to early Dec) was brought in for entire country

During the Dublin Experiment, schools, colleges & retail were all open.

Ireland is small with no significant climate variation

So, what happened? 4/
(shops/schools/colleges open, indoor dining closed)
16 Sept 136 cases/day
16 Oct 254
2x increase

Rest of Ireland
(as above + indoor dining open)
16 Sept 118 cases/day
16 Oct 746
6x increase

If Rest of Ireland had been 2x, Oct lockdown *may not have been needed* 5/
December for comparison (yes, diff conditions more travel, public transport use & indoor socialising, colder weather)

Dublin (indoor dining open)
4 Dec 84 cases
4 Jan 3,655 cases
44x increase

Rest of Ireland (=Dublin)
4 Dec 181 cases
4 Jan 2,455 cases
14x increase

this is NOT to say close indoor dining & pubs..

#Covid19 is an indoor pandemic & risk is ALL about indoor air

Some high risk indoor environments have a very disproportionate impact on virus spread

We can measure & manage them, to keep businesses open

Here’s how to do it…
& it’s nothing new. Chicago did this in 1918 & reopened the city in 6 weeks

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More from @Orla_Hegarty

12 Sep
(rough maths)
HEPA filtration €400 per classroom is < weekly cost of 1 contact tracer

We pay *900* contact tracers

HEPA for EVERY classroom ~as permanent protection for EVERY variant, virus & pollution~ would cost <6 more months of 900 contact tracers
(rough maths #2)

HEPA for EVERY classroom would be < cost of hospitalising 1,800 children (for average 1 week each)

1,800 schoolchildren is the number that would be expected to be hospitalised if 1 in 4 of all schoolchildren were infected in the coming months (0.25%)
(rough maths #3)

HEPA filtration for EVERY classroom as permanent protection would cost less than the *increase* in funding to horse & greyhound racing this year (up from €84m to €96m in 2021)
Read 4 tweets
9 Sep
#Covid19 Children & managing class outbreaks

🇫🇷 France: full class isolate

🇮🇹 Italy: full class isolate

🇪🇸Spain: full class isolate

🇮🇪 Ireland: isolation of ‘close contacts’ if not vaccinated

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England: no isolation of any under 18s for any reason
🇫🇷 France #schools “masks, mandatory from age 6.. classrooms regularly ventilated… In primary schools, if one child tests positive, class will close for 7 days.. In high schools children positive & not vaccinated placed into isolation for at least 1 week” amp.france24.com/en/france/2021…
🇮🇹 Italy ‘masks for everyone aged over six, staggered entrance/exit times, quarantine rules for classes with positive cases & some classes taught online, depending on the health situation in local area’ thelocal.it/20210831/expla…
Read 10 tweets
1 Sep
[Thread] Workplaces & #Covid19

😷 Many people WFH are concerned about risks in offices, schools, colleges & other buildings

🏢Workplace safety is regulated in EU (& other places). Virus is a biological agent & that requires precautions @EU_OSHA 1/
‘identification & assessment of risks is starting point for managing occupational safety & health.. Employers are obliged to revise risk assessment when there is change, to consider all risks, including affecting mental health..& to make an action plan’ 2/ oshwiki.eu/wiki/COVID-19:…
In Ireland, workplace safety is the responsibility of the Health & Safety Authority @TheHSA hsa.ie/eng/

#Covid19 resources here: hsa.ie/eng/topics/cov… 3/
Read 17 tweets
31 Aug
😷 👧🏼 #Covid19 #Schools #Delta
Masks are the most effective & simplest protection we have for children

Mask are worn very successfully from age 5 in schools in many countries

It’s not forever, & we will never regret doing it now. We must protect children
all the evidence for masks from Professor of Primary Care, Oxford @trishgreenhalgh
info from Professor @linseymarr Virginia Tech (expert in viral aerosols)
Read 5 tweets
30 Aug
🇻🇳 Vietnam ‘modern field hospital for 500 #Covid19 patients’, let’s look at INFECTION CONTROL in Asia
thread with Google Translate, HT @DzungLeVN for link) 1/
‘Hospitals use ventilation one-way to avoid cross infection’ 2/ Image
‘This is considered one of most modern facilities in Vietnam to treat #Covid19 patients. The hospital is in 3 zones
🟩 Green area- administration
🟨 Yellow area- dormitory, canteen, testing & equipment
🟥 Red area- treatment’ 3/ Image
Read 17 tweets
29 Aug
(rough maths)
Let’s say 6,000 cases/day by late Sept..& let’s say 1/3 are children..so that’s 14,000 kids/week.. that’s 1 infected child in half all classrooms in Ireland..& then add close-contacts, siblings, teachers… & add parents off work, minding kids & isolating.. & worse..
.. let’s say 1 in 100 have to go to hospital, that’s 140 children/week.. & if only 10% of them need ICU that’s 14 children.. in a country where there are only 31 ICU beds for all sick children

This crisis was foreseeable.
[6,000 cases/day is NPHET Central1 range, 14 Jul slide)
.. so if 14 in ICU (say €2,500/night) & 126 in hospital (say €1,000).. that’s €1 million/wk cost.. & add deferred treatments & surgeries for other sick children.. & the other 13,860/wk kids with ‘mild illness’ (not hospitalised)?
Over 1,500 will likely get Long Covid (>5 wks)
Read 4 tweets

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