We don't know what we want, so we want what our neighbor wants. And the less we understand why, the more desperately we want.
"Mimetic conflict emerges when 2 people desire the same, scarce resource. Like lions in a cage, we mirror our enemies, fight because of our sameness, & ascend status hierarchies instead of providing value for society."
~ @david_perell
The concrete jungle of NYC was an echo chamber of our mimetic conflicts.
It was the culture of finance.
It was the culture of scarcity.
It was the culture I flew halfway across the world to get away from.
Coming to SF 4 yrs ago felt like departing Plato's cave.
As I packed up my east coast life, a friend asked:
"Are you running from or running toward?"
Both.
"From scarcity. Toward abundance."
I was naive. I didn't know it at the time but I was running in a spiral.
To say that I was running from scarcity toward abundance explains only half the story. More accurately, it was from scarcity-driven mimesis to abundance-driven mimesis.
We are still "gigantic imitation machines" (as @peterthiel describes) no matter where we go.
I came to SF looking for the land where unicorns frolick and the pie in the sky is ever growing.
I wanted to experience the smoke in mirrors, the exaggerated exuberance, the song and dance about general AI, and ceaseless anticipation for the next big crypto pump.
Everyone has their own unique story in the global exodus from finance to tech. Sick of PE interviews? Want to build product? Longing for something new?
More likely they are all manifestations of Girardian mimesis.
The irony!
Our instinct for imitation is truly inimitable.
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1. Hot date 🔥 (or several) 2. Hot portco 🦄 (or several)
Turns out:
There's a famous game theory algorithm that maximizes ur chances of finding both.
It's called ...
👇
1/ What is the Secretary Problem?
Imagine ur in HR.
U wanna hire the best secretary from N applicants. So u interview them 1 by 1 until u decide to accept one. Rejected candidates can't be resurrected.
What strategy maximizes ur chances of choosing the BEST?
[code @ end of 🧵]
Now replace "ur in HR" with
"ur a normal guy" (or girl).
Replace "secretary" with
"hot date" &/or "hot portfolio company🦄."
The strategy that maximizes for the BEST secretary also maximizes for the BEST gf/bf also maximizes for the BEST investment. 🤯
In 1983, McDonalds struggled to launch the McNugget. Chicken volatility was too high.
"How can we set fixed prices w/out risking billions?"
Hedge funder Ray Dalio cracked the code.
Here's how his economic machine solved McDonald's 🐥problem.👇
1/ What is the Economic Machine?
Before talking about 🐥s, let's take a quick intro ride through Dalio's core macroeconomic insight:
While seemingly complex, the economy is mechanically & predictably driven by human nature.
i.e. Everything from debt cycles to GDP is a machine.
3 Forces drive Dalio’s economic machine:
#1 Productivity growth
#2 Long Term Debt Cycle
#3 Short Term Debt Cycle
The diagram above shows these 3 forces together in action.
#1 is shown by the monotonically increasing curve.
#2 wiggles sinusoidally along #1.
#3 wiggles along #2.
"3 reasons."
Start here. It shows (a) ur organized (b) u've done ur homework.
Example:
#1: "Ur the best at [restructuring/techM&A/derivatives]!"
#2: "I read about X deal & I wanna help on the next one!"
#3: "My buddy X from LevFin says culture is great."
Why was that a good answer?
#1 strokes ur interviewer's ego; s/he will like u more & whatever u say next will sound 2x better
#2 shows ur excited! (i'm convinced half the reason banks hire undergrad interns is for their energy)
#3 - shows ur an insider/ already 'one of the guys'